Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, the two major national parties, have dominated Delhi politics for decades. Survey after survey, however, has reflected the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party as a third force, an alternative for voters in the national capital. While it is still unclear how much of an impact the new player will have in terms of seats, AAP has definitely influenced the political discourse of the state. It has been projecting its Convener, Arvind Kejriwal as the only alternative to a “corrupt” Sheila Dixit. By painting both Sheila Dikshit (incumbent Chief Minister of Delhi) and Vijay Goel of the BJP with the same brush, AAP has managed to create an atmosphere that has gone against both the leaders (as surveys of CM preferences have indicated). A “clean image” has become the most important criterion for being eligible to be Delhi’s Chief Minister.

The run-up to the Delhi Assembly elections took an interesting turn on October 23, 2013 with the BJP announcing Dr Harsh Vardhan as its Chief Ministerial candidate. Vardhan is seen as one of the few untarnished faces of the Delhi BJP. The BJP has, to some extent, neutralised the AAP’s pitch for a non-corrupt chief minister by projecting him. A flurry of tweets from Arvind Kejriwal on this matter indicates that the AAP is going to have to make a tougher case for itself after this development.

Manish Sisodia, a senior leader of the party was quick to comment, “A clean face cannot hide a corrupt party”. Arvind Kejriwal asked, “Is Dr Harsh Vardhan, the BJP’s Dr Manmohan Singh?” and substantiated it with another tweet – “A corrupt Congress made Manmohan Singh its face at the Centre. Manmohan failed to check corruption within Congress and his own Govt”.  The Congress and AAP are bound to attack this decision and rubbish it as an insignificant one.

However, if taken at face value, the BJP must be congratulated for judging the mood of the electorate and projecting a clean face as its leader. While the “BJP’s Manmohan” tag given by Kejriwal may evoke applause from his supporters, it may not be very accurate. For one, the circumstances under which Manmohan Singh was brought in were significantly different. He did have a clean image, but that was not the motive behind his elevation. Also, Singh was always seen as the de facto instrument of Sonia Gandhi’s de jure exercises of power. Harsh Vardhan is certainly not bound to follow directions of any one such authority. No, he is not the BJP’s Manmohan. His role may actually be similar to someone closer home, within the BJP.

In September 2011, the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand, Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank was asked to step down and was replaced by General BC Khanduri. With only six months of the government’s term left, it was clear that this change of guard had been made to salvage the BJP’s electoral prospects, which seemed bleak with NIshank at the helm of affairs. The Uttarakhand government had been hit by a series of corruption scandals and under such circumstances, Khanduri was perceived to be the BJP’s best bet. The national leadership of the party went to the extent of making “Khanduri hai jaroori” (Khanduri is indispensable) the party’s principal slogan and pitch. Khanduri’s clean image was used by the BJP to repair the damage Nishank had done to its reputation in the state. In a neck to neck fight, the BJP fell short of just four seats from the majority mark, which was not such a bad result, considering the fact that they could have faced a bigger defeat under Nishank. Against this backdrop, Khanduri faced a major upset on his own seat – Kotdwar!

Looking at Delhi 2013, it seems to me that Harsh Vardhan is Delhi BJP’s General Khanduri. In the final lap, his party has brought him into the race, at a time when Vijay Goel had been projecting himself for the job. Like the General from Uttarakhand, he is “Mr Clean” in an otherwise unimpressive set of faces. The comparison does not end there. The fact that he has never lost a Delhi Assembly election makes one think he is a strong force in Delhi’s politics. However, one look at the successive victory margins of Harsh Vardhan’s election from Krishna Nagar, gives a clear picture of what to expect in the forthcoming elections. In the 2003 election, he won the seat with a margin of a whopping 14,073 votes. In stark contrast, his victory margin slumped to a mere 3,204 in the Assembly election of 2008 (an election that saw the BJP’s vote share increase marginally).

A Times of India news report says “The constituency representative, Dr Harsh Vardhan of the BJP, is a four-time sitting MLA and hopes to win a fifth time this December. As with the rest of east Delhi, though, there are ample chances of a change this time as there is strong dissatisfaction with the sitting MLA. Most residents complain that despite being at the helm for two decades, Dr Harsh Vardhan hasn’t been able to address some of the biggest civic issues in the area—namely , inadequate parking and drainage.” One of the inferences that could be drawn based on this is that Harsh Vardhan may well lose his Krishna Nagar seat – but his projection as the CM candidate could be enough for him to scrape through.

Kotdwar is a constituency that Khanduri had earlier represented. The people of Kotdwar were familiar with his work and they were also aware of the fact that he could be their next Chief Minister. Why would they vote him out? All reports pinned the blame on the local party machinery, which worked against him, bringing about his defeat. Could the same happen to Harsh Vardhan? If the BJP gets the numbers to form the government, but their CM candidate loses, it would encourage many Delhi BJP leaders waiting in the wings to jump at this very opportunity. Yet, if BJP fares poorly, Harsh Vardhan would have to take responsibility for the loss and Vijay Goel will regain his position at the top of the party’s leadership.

Perhaps it is too late, but by pacifying Vijay Goel the party has finally displayed a united front. A last minute change of captains is a gamble. The entire set of local office bearers of the BJP has been handpicked by Vijay Goel. The cadre will suddenly have to change gear and rally around someone who has pipped “their” leader to become the Chief Ministerial candidate. Another month and we’ll know whether this move by the BJP works as well in Delhi as it did in Uttarakhand.

Full Disclosure: The author is an Aam Aadmi Party volunteer.