“At a time when you are going to decide the fate of the country, it is very important for you to know the results of thispoll (opinion polls). We want you to update yourself on the basis of the findings of this opinion poll. It is the best, most credible and the most dependable opinion poll. This time don’t just vote for yourself, vote for the country.”

This is how Sumit Awasthi, who anchors Bharata Bhagya Vidhata– a show based on the finding of an opinion poll conducted by Zee Media and Taleem Research-began his show on April 14, 2014. The Zee opinion polls, like most other polls predicted that Congress would not be able to muster the required numbers and that BJP would have an edge over them. It also stated that National Democratic Alliance would not be able to muster enough numbers to cross the magic number of 272.

On the same day, if you switched to NDTV 24×7, Prannoy Roy was hosting a 2-hour long programme called The Last Word. This was the culmination of months of state wise opinion polls aired since January. Were the findings the same that shared by Zee? No. The NDTV opinion poll conducted by Hansa Research threw up the figure of 275 for the NDA.

Both these shows were taking place just three days before the largest chunk of 122 Lok Sabha seats was to go to polls in 13 states in India on April 17. Both channels faced much criticism from political commentators and the Election Commission for the findings shared by them could influence voters. The level of influence an opinion poll could have on voters is difficult to predict. A look at the previous opinion poll results would give us some insight on whether voters were indeed influenced by the predictions made on TV.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2004 GENERAL ELECTIONS-
Completely off the mark.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 GENERAL ELECTIONS-
Failure to judge the increase in support for Congress 

EXIT POLLS- DELHI ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS, 2013
Complete misreading of support to AAP 

Clearly, opinion poll predictions aren’t very reliable. So why do channels devote so much time on discussion and analysis basedon such data? We spoke to political commentators, media critics, journalists and news anchors to find what they thought of opinion polls, whether they were accurate and how they felt a viewer would gain from such shows.

Sevanti Ninan, Media Commentator- They(opinion polls) do give me a sense of which way the wind is blowing. Whether they offer insights depends entirely on the quality of panelists and how many hours they are supposed to hold forth for. 

Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, Journalist and Author– I am kind of indifferent. It depends on the quality of the panelists. Individual panelists have their own personal interpretation of the opinion polls. Their interpretation gets coloured by their own opinion. India is such a heterogeneous country it is not easy to ascertain the mood of the electorate.”

Maheshwer Peri, Chairman and CEO, Careers360 – The opinion polls only provide a premise for a prolonged discussion. It is a good anchor. It may be the seat count or restrict it to Vote Share, swings etc, it comes down to gauging the mood of the nation. The panel discussions do give you an opportunity to gauge a party’s stand on various issues that are important for us.

Girish Nikam, Consultant/ Anchor, Rajya Sabha TV- Yes, these shows and panel discussions can provide some insight as long as they are conducted without bias or agenda. However, sadly this is becoming increasingly rare as anchors and hosts tend to get carried away by their own personal biases or wishes. Viewers therefore need to be discreet in what and whom they watch, but that sadly does not happen enough. As far as making better political choice, by viewing these shows, I think it is limited, as most people have their pre-determined choices, and only a small percentage of viewers get influenced by these shows.

Kumar Ketkar, Journalist and a regular on panel discussions – The polls and discussions about their so-called findings do not provide any intelligent insight in the political processes or priorities. They provide entertainment at the cost of political understanding. But how can there be ban or restriction on entertainment, particularly when the political surveys are not pornography? But in a way, pornography is less dangerous for democracy than manipulated opinion polls.

The reactions range between indifference towards polls to complete abhorrence for the entire process. Experts say that what keeps these opinion polls going is audience interest. Nikam says, “As long as viewers keep watching they will keep giving it. In India a section of people can never have enough of this, so as long as people are willing to watch, the channels will keep dishing it out”. Ninan adds, “There is clear market logic. It feeds viewer curiosity about a much hyped up election, and gets advertising”. Speaking to Newslaundry, a CNN-IBN official from their marketing department confirms that TRPs do shoot up during election season and opinion poll-related programmes do contribute in achieving higher TRPs.

Explains why primetime is bombarded with Opinion Poll shows and hour long panel discussion dissecting figures which may or may not be right. CNN-IBN’s Election Tracker with Lokniti and CSDS has been the channel’s major primetime draw. Anchored by Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai, the programme was wrapped up on April 4, 2014, three days before the first phase of elections began. NDTV’s Battleground 2014 and The Last Word have kept viewers occupied with opinion polls. Zee News did a two-part series bang in the middle of election season in addition to its state-wise predictions since January. The ABP-Nielson opinion poll was aired on March 29.

Times Now’s “penultimate national poll projections” in association with C-Voter was aired “100 days before the election day” on February 13.  Two weeks later C-Voter’s name figured in a sting operation on how agencies tweak their findings for money. Following this,India Today and Headlines Today suspended their contract with C-Voter. India Today has conducted a series of regional opinion polls with Cicero.

Confused whether there’s any point to these opinion polls? So are we. Here are the findings from the major opinion polls for the 2014 General Elections. Come May 16, we can decide how accurate or pointless they are.