Flipping through news channels, one stumbles across an advertisement with the tagline: “Transforming Education, Transforming India”. There’s another one about a university that says it is an “ultimate destination for world class education”.

There are, in fact, many similar kinds – all trying to cash in on the “ambitious” and aspirational Indian youth. According to Deloitte Report on Higher Education, there has been a threefold increase in the number of colleges in India over the past decade. In 2000-01, there were 12,806 colleges and 256 universities. This has increased to 35,539 colleges and 700 universities in 2013.

The increase in the number of universities has led to a dramatic improvement (obviously) in the gross enrolment ratio (GER) in higher education. From 0.40 per cent in 1950- 51, the GER has leaped to 19.4 per cent in 2012-13. On the surface, this increase implies that the youth of the country today have more opportunities to educate themselves. But, dig deeper, and a different picture emerges.

The survey report on youth employment and unemployment, 2012-13, shows disappointing trends in employment. Estimating the youth employment among various age groups, it stated that: “With increase in education level, the unemployment rate is also increasing for all age groups.” This includes the age group between 15 and 29 years.

The report further explains that the “decline in skilled jobs in manufacturing sector together with increased demand for professional specialists and unskilled jobs in secondary and tertiary sector has led to a situation where a large segment of youth either do not possess the requisite skills and experience for the new opportunities or are employed on part-time and temporary contract basis.”

The report goes on to blame “unregulated private universities” as one of the reasons for rise in unemployment among youth. It says “mushrooming of large number of unregulated private institutes conferring technical degrees and diplomas unsuited to the job demands of modern economy has further aggravated the situation as more and more youth are forced to accept informal and inferior forms of employment, particularly in rural areas.”

The concerns raised by the report is further corroborated in a study by the National Association of Software Service Companies (NASSCOM). It revealed only 25 per cent of engineering graduates are readily employable in the industry. Also as per the National Assessment and Accreditation Council (NAAC), about 62 per cent of the universities and 90 per cent of the colleges were rated average or below average on specific quality parameters.

There is another significant problem and a long-term issue that emerges when you look at both the Deloitte and the youth report. The youth survey report reveals that the sector with highest amount of job opportunities for youth in the country is agriculture. In fact, the majority of the youth are employed in the field of agriculture, forestry and fishing, which can be calculated as 435 per 1000 for youth aged 18- 29. Yet there are only 54 agricultural universities in India. And, according to the Deloitte report, enrolment for higher education in agricultural fields and its allied sectors is a mere 0.5 per cent.

Distribution of Workers by NIC 2008 (in 1000) for age group 18-29 (Rural +Urban)

Distribution of Enrollment in Higher Education Courses

On the other hand, while the number of youth employed in art, entertainment and recreation, along with education, public administration, defence and other activities had been 84 per thousand (which is rather low), the enrolment in arts has been the highest — about 37 per cent. (While much may be said about the value of an education in liberal arts, it is doubtful if the quality of education is sufficient to provide the kind of life skills that a liberal arts education is supposed to provide.)

As the youth report states, India is set to become the world’s youngest country by 2020, with 64 per cent of its population in the working age group. With the West, Japan and even China aging, this demographic potential offers India and its growing economy an unprecedented edge that economists believe could add a significant two per cent to the GDP growth rate.

If that were indeed the case, the upsurge in advertisements and promotional activities in the education supplements of newspapers shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, one of the major promises made to the country during elections was providing employment to the youth of this country. The first T, among the five Ts of Narendra Modi, stands for Talent. As a major initiative in his first budget, the Finance Minister promised employment to the youth of this country with funds allocated to various schemes, especially the manufacturing sector.

The new government seems to be working in a positive direction, because demand should be able to cater to supply. However, another question that needs to be addressed, that too urgently – is the supply sector i.e. the workforce for the industry, robust enough to cater to the demands of the industries?