As Narendra Modi completes his first year as the country’s Prime Minister on the 26th of May, IndiaSpend maps the similarities between Modi’s first year and the corresponding first year of former PM Manmohan Singh’s last term. It turns out that they aren’t that different.
The economy rebounded.
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ContributeExports and imports declined.
Foreign-exchange reserves grew.
Coal production, electricity generation and petroleum consumption rose.
Non-performing assets (NPAs) in banking soared.
There are great similarities between Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first year in office—which he completes on May 26—and the corresponding first year of former PM Manmohan Singh’s last term.
In seven of 12 indicators evaluated by IndiaSpend, the data reveal a similar trend—a reasonable economic performance after an economic downturn, as the chart below reveals:
Source (1- 2009-10, 2- 2014-15) : GDP 1, 2; Agriculture 1, 2; Industrial Production 1, 2; Coal Production 1, 2; Foreign Exchange Reserves 1, 2; Exports 1, 2; Imports 1, 2; Non Performing Assets 1, 2; Petroleum 1, 2; Electricity 1, 2; Nuclear 1, 2; Renewable Energy 1, 2.*NPAs for 2014-15 calculated up to December 2014.
The large variations in the first-year period centre on:
Direct comparisons are difficult, considering that Singh was in his second term in office. Modi carries Singh’s economic legacy, which worsened considerably by the end of the term, attributed by observers to a global downturn and misgovernance.
But these indicators offer a broad statistical evaluation of the first years of Modi and Singh (during UPA2, as the second term of the United Progressive Alliance was called).
A journey through the numbers
Coal: Coal from India’s mines increased 8.2% in 2014-15, later falling into a controversy over botched allotments, one of the reasons for the decline in UPA2’s image. In 2009-10, production increased 8.1%. Performance of the coal sector is expected to improve with the re-allotment of 67 coal blocks through an auction, although Modi’s figure of Rs 2-lakh crore ($31.25 billion) windfall is now contested.
Renewable energy: With pressure on India to cut carbon emissions and a small base, renewable energy—it is responsible for 12% of India’s total power installed—growth rates were high during both terms. The total installed capacity of renewable energy reported a 7.56%growth in 2014-15 and a growth of 17.20% in 2009-10.
Non-performing assets: NPAs of public sector banks increased 17% from Rs 2.27 lakh crore in March 2014 to Rs 2.73 lakh crore in December 2014, a carry-over from UPA2. Public sector bank NPAs had increased 23% in 2009-10 over the previous year. NPA growth rates of this magnitude can destabilise the banking system.
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