Gujarat: Congress set to lose Hardik gains
The Patidar leader had prepared ground for the BJP’s defeat but the absence of a party set-up in Gujarat has failed the Congress again.
The anti-incumbency factor was like a favourable batting pitch in the Gujarat Assembly polls and Patidar leader Hardik Patel was the main batsman. Slightly better supporting batsmen, like a well-oiled Congress party set-up, could have thrown a spanner into the BJP ambitions of retaining the coastal state. And if the Congress fails to win in Gujarat, it will be more because of its lax workers than anything else.
Support Independent Media
The media must be free and fair, uninfluenced by corporate or state interests. That's why you, the public, need to pay to keep news free.
ContributeOn Thursday, a total 68.7 per cent of voters cast their ballot for 93 Assembly seats. This includes the assembly seats in North and Central Gujarat. The two cities of Ahmedabad and Vadodara alone could have made the difference as the BJP’s major seat share was at stake. In 2012, the BJP had clinched 17 of 21 Assembly seats of Ahmedabad and 9 of the 10 constituencies in Vadodara. Even the BJP workers accepted that their situation in the rural areas was not that strong.
Making a dent in the urban seats would have meant a close fight for the Congress upsetting the BJP’s prospects. Patel, a rookie, was very clear about this. Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader Dharmik Malviya told Newslaundry, “150 Patidaar workers have shifted to Ahmedabad after the first phase polling was over. Another 10-12 groups of youth with 10-15 members each volunteered to handle the campaign in Ahmedabad.” The preparation was along the lines of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) packs – small groups took charge of door-to-door campaigns and this morning, they were spotted outside polling booths in Patidar-dominated areas. “The police was after our boys. They have been trying to catch us for the past three days,” Malviya added.
Ahmedabad alone forms almost one-fourth of the seats which went to the polls in the final round. BJP heavyweights such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party chief Amit Shah and former CM Anandiben Patel have represented constituencies in Ahmedabad district. Even for Hardik Patel, this district was a matter of prestige for two reasons – his home turf Viramgam is part of Ahmedabad and it has also witnessed violence during the 2015 Patidar Anamat Andolan. His PAAS had covered half the ground for the Congress. The anguish in the Patidar voters in constituencies such as Vatva, represented by Gujarat Home Minister Pradipsinh Jadeja, was milked by the PAAS. Patidar voters had no qualms in rejecting the saffron party on the camera.
Similarly in Thakkarnagar represented by former minister and BJP MLA Vallabhbhai Kakadiya, the Patidars from the Surat unit had taken charge. Videos of the police crackdown on the Patidar agitation were sent to the community voters to remind them of what the BJP had done in the past. Babubhai Mangukia, who had fought Patel’s sedition case initially, has been fielded by the Congress and was giving a tough fight to the sitting BJP MLA. Even in the Bapanagar seat of Ahmedabad, the contest is believed to be a close one.“Every seat in Gujarat seems unclear right now. These three leaders (Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani) have brought blockades in our way. However, we are confident of getting 115-120 seats,” BJP worker Nilesh Patel told Newslaundry. He was managing the BJP booth desk right next to slain Shwetang Patel’s house in Thakkarnagar.However, the moment one left the Patidar-dominated areas – the Congress’ halo started dimming right away. For instance in Maninagar constituency, once represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, the Congress has fielded a young and inexperienced candidate. Congress’ Sweta Brambhatt’s chances appeared bleak and this is something people from her core team had accepted on condition of anonymity.Naroda, again a BJP bastion, was hardly going for “navsarjan” (The Congress poll plank). Despite a weak candidate in Asarva, the constituency touching the Ahmedabad Sabarmati riverfront, the BJP can swing it. Speaking to Newslaundry, BJP candidate Pradip Parmar said, “They (Patel, Thakor and Mevani) are non-factors in my constituency.” When asked about why the top brass was looking desperate and why the manifesto was launched a day before the elections, he added, “I am a small leader. These are the decisions of the senior leadership.” For him, Ram Mandir is national issue which cannot be kept aside as the party will now gear up for the 2019 general elections.
BJP’s Pradip Parmar at a post-poll meeting in Asarva.
The second major factor was “anti-incumbency” or the desire for “parivartan”. The large chunk of anti-BJP vote bank has been also triggered by the anti-incumbency factor. The BJP has been in power for the past 22 years. The very fact that organic campaigns like Vikas Gando Thayo Che, started after the Gujarat floods, went viral reflects the displeasure amongst the voters. The lack of the BJP’s clear-cut stand on its manifesto and constant jibes at Rahul Gandhi and his “parivar” only contributed to further adding to this displeasure. Voters such as Sardaben Vasram, a resident of Naroda, have voted for “badlav (change) as 22 years is more than enough for a party to stay in power”. However, the exit polls show the grand-old party has hardly been able to capitalise on these factors.
Alpesh Thakor’s effect was minimal in the Ahmedabad zone. It is believed that he might have affected the voters in North Gujarat but the central parts remain out of his bounds. Notably, according to sources in Viramgam constituency, Thakor’s own position was weak. “The silent or neutral voters were casting their vote for vikas. It is disappointing that young leaders such Thakor might not make it to the assembly but it is also because they had limited themselves to Modi bashing. And when it is a choice between Modi and anti-Modi, people often go for the former,” said a reporter with a national news channel.
If the Congress is able to upset the BJP – the credit shall go to Patel’s PAAS and the anti-incumbency factor. If the debacle predicted in the exit polls comes true, the Congress must blame itself for wasting the entire hype around the Gujarat polls. In words of an independent candidate from Vatva assembly, Kalim Siddique, “the Congress will not come to power for another decade.”
Even neutral voters who went for the BJP did so because of the development that the state has witnessed under the leadership of Modi. CM Vijay Rupani and the BJP’s manifesto or the opposition’s attack on the saffron party didn’t work for them.
Power NL-TNM Election Fund
General elections are around the corner, and Newslaundry and The News Minute have ambitious plans together to focus on the issues that really matter to the voter. From political funding to battleground states, media coverage to 10 years of Modi, choose a project you would like to support and power our journalism.
Ground reportage is central to public interest journalism. Only readers like you can make it possible. Will you?