When Trump Met Modi, Decoded

The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had many in the world intrigued on how the two leaders see the relationship between the two countries grow and deepen. The two leaders’ focus was on unlocking economic opportunities and to strengthen existing mechanisms. The declaration was sharp and brief with no room for ambiguity. It remarked terror and trade as two issues important to the partnership.

Both Trump and Modi signify populism and nationalism. Both are attempting to spark the imagination of the masses towards nation building, through appeals of ‘Make America Great Again’ on one side and ‘Make in India’, on the other. There is more than a hint of corporate style governance, which can be seen from the fact that both leaders have a significant presence on social media.  The two countries are the world’s largest and oldest democracies with ties that go beyond a single issue. Therefore, any analysis of the sides taken by them will be a mix of positives and negatives, leaps and retractions, amongst others.

There was a clarion call for restoration of confidence in bilateral ties which has been hailed by industry experts. It is important to note that in this camaraderie between leaders – areas of liquefied natural gas (LNG), clean coal and nuclear energy were spelt out. With the meeting affirmed a success, India must cautiously walk the line.

India is an importer of LNG where contracts and orders are already in place. Will not the new pact lead to duplication and adding a burden to the exchequer? Indian energy trading with the US witnessed a leap from clean energy finance and solar energy of the Obama years. Coal is an area where both nations have witnessed heated political debates and may not find new grounds of commonality at a time where there are global attempts towards promotion of non-renewable sources. At this juncture, when the US has moved out of the Paris Agreement and India has pledged to drop coal plant pipelines, India may just leapfrog the United States.

The US did affirm its support for India’s membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group which China often obstructs. The nuclear question is vexed on several factors including on the deal between India’s Nuclear Power Corporation of India and Westinghouse which has gone bankrupt.

Seen on a comparative note, with the India-US 2008 civil nuclear deal, one may speak about the deepening strategic ties by attributing India as a major defence partner. But the idea of co-production was missing, at a time when India recently concluded nuclear pacts with Russia.

Counter-terrorism cooperation is a big take-away from these parleys. It pledged rejuvenating the resolve for the fight against terrorism as both countries have been victims of it – 9/11, Mumbai, Pathankot. To stall Pakistan’s attempt to internationalise the Kashmir issue, the US declared Syed Salahuddin a global terrorist. It also marked a departure in Indian foreign policy stand too from non-alignment to be part of 22 Guardian drones procured by the US, praising NATO’s indicatives and surgical strikes.

Growing Indo-US convergence on the Indo-Pacific to counter China may be easier said than done. Will these remarks do well by ignoring the fact that China has pioneered one road one belt initiatives, reaching out to other South Asian players and increased its presence in the contentious South China Sea, amongst others? Further, Trump is yet to spell contours of his Afghan-Pakistan policy and address Iran’s nuclear strides. India must then carefully examine how it can manoeuvre and lay down new frameworks. Pakistan has traditionally been a frontline ally of the US and China since the Cold War and to what extent the US would side-line it cannot be predicted, considering the present erratic times.

Indian information technology firms will witness a sharp rise in operational costs if forced to hire more Americans along with the eerie silence on the rising racist attacks on Indian software and service professionals, and students there.  With no mention of challenges faced by the reduction of H-1B visas, discrepancies of intellectual property rights regimes, challenges posed by the non-traditional security challenges like climate change, the meeting did miss out on some things in an attempt to sustain the momentum for the future and avoid deadlock.

If India balances objectives and achievements of defence and economic partnerships, it should be cautiously looking at unpredictability as a haunting variable in diplomacy. There are a lot of synergies in people on both sides, and this needs to be channelled more effectively for a robust partnership after this meeting.

News reports in the Economic Times quoted Chinese media reports that said the country can garner benefits from the Trump-Modi meeting since the meeting was itself low on expectations, as a precursor of the two nations knowing each other better. While others like Indian Express highlighted how the US media gave a thumbs up to the meeting. The routine live news coverage focused on the mundane sensationalism of the bonhomie of the handshake. An interesting insight was reported by Deccan Chronicle on Modi gifting Trump the commemorative postal stamp issued on the death centenary of Abraham Lincoln to present India’s wide worldview. But there are more things to grasp than talk only of the red carpet welcome at the White House. But what was expected to be tough and difficult came out all in one piece.