Venkaiah for VP shows BJP sights on the South

By choosing M Venkaiah Naidu as the National Democratic Alliance’s vice-presidential candidate, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has surprised many observers and again proved that nothing about him is predictable. Usually, whenever somebody is said to be a front-runner in the BJP and the NDA, their names are crossed out. That is the style of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.  But in Naidu’s case, he was the first name to do the rounds as a potential NDA vice-presidential candidate.

In the last few days, there were obvious indications that the VP candidate might be somebody from the south. This was understandable given the names that were doing the rounds: Maharashtra Governor Vidyasagar Rao, O. Rajagopal from Kerala and, of course, Naidu.

There could be two reasons why the party was thinking of a candidate from the South. One is that the Opposition nominee, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, has links to the South.  He is a resident of Chennai. He is the grandson of the first Indian Governor General C. Rajagopalachari, apart from being Mahatma Gandhi’s grandson. Gandhi has agreed to become the joint Opposition candidate knowing fully well that he might not win, but he still has agreed in the larger interest of Opposition unity. Surely, Gopal Gandhi would have done some homework with Members of Parliament from the South. Then he has links with Naveen Patnaik and with southern parties in Tamil Naidu. Now, whether there is any basis to or not, certainly that could be one reason to counter Gandhi more effectively– even though I don’t think he is going to win.

Secondly, Amit Shah has been very serious and focused on the southern states – as far as 2019 general elections are concerned. They know Karnataka is a low-hanging fruit though it is not so easy.

In Tamil Nadu, post-Jayalalithaa, the BJP has been hoping to informally tie-up with Rajinikanth. AIADMK is in a state of disarray. The BJP would certainly want to fish in troubled waters and hope to make some electoral gains in the next electoral rounds.

As far as Kerala is concerned, Amit Shah, even after the last election, has expressed optimism of there being a fertile field available to them. And then, of course, there is Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. KCR is soft towards the BJP. They have an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu.

The BJP knows it has peaked in the north Indian states. Therefore, they will have to open their accounts convincingly in states where they have not had a sizable presence, if they are to achieve the majority again in 2019. So, they will focus big time on the South.

In the North Indian states — Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand – they have already peaked. So they’ve got to do well in these southern as well as eastern states.

Nominating somebody from the South has a symbolic value, up to a point. It’s not as if they’re going to sway crowds in the South. But this does have that token importance. So that could be another reason why they’ve gone for somebody like Venkaiah Naidu.

As far as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is concerned, they made it very clear that they would like to have somebody who could manage the Rajya Sabha effectively. In order to do that, you need to know the players in different parties, have cross-party links, which Venkaiah Naidu would have more of than Rajagopal or Vidyasagar Rao. Also, the Sangh wanted somebody who has links with the core values of the RSS, which Venkaiah Naidu has. There were unconfirmed reports that when Naidu’s name first came into the public arena as a possible Vice President, it was said Modi had told him that no, he couldn’t spare him. He wanted him in the Cabinet. But, obviously, that has changed.

Running the Rajya Sabha is going to be the major challenge for him: to take everybody along; to use his persuasive powers and contacts across parties in Rajya Sabha. As far as the challenges in the electoral process are concerned, unless there is cross party voting, the BJP appears confident. There are 790 MPs, and the NDA is confident of at least 500.

Gopal Gandhi may have done a little bit of homework, but that will be too little to pose a challenge to the NDA nominee. He starts to click in his formulation because he’s a very good candidate. It’s not only his lineage but his own accomplishments. Gandhi belongs to the old world values of modern India. Even though its MPs who vote, but if ground-level pressure comes and he suddenly starts to click – that could have an impact to some extent. But on the whole, I don’t think it’s a major challenge to the NDA nominee.

In the presidential polls, the NDA nominated a candidate from North India. It is a good move to choose somebody from the South for vice-president. That element must also have been there.

Importantly, with Naidu’s exit, one must expect the Cabinet reshuffle soon. He will vacate two very important ministries – the Information and Broadcasting (I & B) and the Urban Development ministries. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is already holding the charge of Defence Ministry and the Environment Ministry. This would mean five to six very important ministries are now vacant and will have to be soon filled up. It’s possible that the Prime Minister undertakes a reshuffle before long to give suitable signals on the governance front. He might want to bring in new people and generate new energies. However, as far as the party work is concerned – they’ll handle that. Amit Shah has got a new team under his wing.

(As told to Newslaundry’s Veydaant Khanna)