AAP’s #BawanaByPoll victory:  Comeback or public tokenism? 

Even though the result of the bypoll to Delhi’s Bawana Assembly constituency isn’t very different from pre-election projections, the bypoll did bring out some important political pointers.

The first pointer is the implication for the national parties —the BJP and the Congress. Even though the polls closed with BJP’s Ved Prakash securing the second spot, there was one point during the counting when the BJP trailed the Congress at the third spot. That indicated a certain revival of the Congress. After being pummelled in the state assembly and the municipal corporation elections, the BJP trailing the Congress showed a certain reckoning of the Congress. It was a stronger comeback than what the latter had been able to muster in the preceding elections as the difference in total votes secured was barely 4000. For the BJP, it might indicate the need to step up its efforts to woo Dalits in constituencies such as Bawana.

The election results also give an insight into each party’s vote base. While the Congress has done well in parts of rural Bawana which include the farming community, AAP has done well in areas dominated by Dalits and Muslims including the JJ colonies, the BJP has done well among Hindu middle-class citizens, including areas such as Rohini.

The appeal of the Congress seems to have been its repeated attempts to address the difficulties being faced by the farming community. This seems to have gotten the party some traction, whereas the BJP’s ability to jump to the second spot was enabled by its hold over the middle-class.

Hold your horses!

While Bawana bypoll results are an insight into Delhi’s changing political dynamic, it may well be a straw in the wind. One should, thus, refrain from reading too much into these results as Bawana is only one of the 70 assembly constituencies in Delhi. AAP has, nevertheless, retained its base among Dalits and Muslims largely due to its campaign promises, such as power and water.

The second reason for AAP’s victory is its work in the education space as well as health through initiatives like mohalla clinics. This has connected it with the poorest of the poor and indicates AAP hasn’t lost its appeal.

The third reason behind AAP’s large-margin victory might be public resentment against defection by party leaders. The case in point being former AAP MLA Ved Prakash who joined the BJP in March earlier this year.

The public resentment against defectors might have played into the hands of AAP’s candidate Ram Chander, who was a fresh face in the bypoll.

Lastly, after a storm of controversies, AAP’s disengagement with the media and ground-level work focus could have swung the public sentiment in its favour. After AAP’s fallout with the public during the municipal corporation elections, people may have felt that it had been punished too harshly. This is largely the same sentiment that swept AAP to power in Delhi in 2015 after BJP’s landslide victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

All this together with AAP’s refrain from taking on Modi has given rise to an interesting phenomenon. Apart from going quiet, AAP has been trying to fix itself organisationally. This has proved to be more than productive and seems to have helped AAP in Bawana. And shows that perhaps all is not lost yet.

While it is too early to say whether the victory in Bawana bypoll is indicative of AAP’s political revival; nevertheless, the polls indicate that the situation is retrievable.

Lastly, while the bypoll might or might not prove to be a turning point, it would help AAP to address the faultlines in the party. As for the BJP, AAP’s 45 per cent vote share will definitely make them sit up.

*As told to Cherry Agarwal.