Why DMK can’t afford to lose RK Nagar after #2GVerdict

Arithmetically speaking, the DMK should have a cakewalk in Tamil Nadu’s RK Nagar that voted in the bypoll on Thursday.

Given that the AIADMK’s votebank of 96,000-odd that late former CM Jayalalithaa polled in the May 2016 Assembly election will get split between the two claimants to her political legacy – governing AIADMK candidate E Madhusudanan and rebel TTV Dhinakaran – all the DMK has to do is to retain its votebank of about 57,000 votes that its candidate polled in the constituency in the last election.

Which is why DMK working president MK Stalin even took the gamble of announcing he will not pay for a single vote in the constituency. This when the other two rival candidates, according to reports, have paid between Rs 6,000 and Rs 8,000 per vote. That was a risk, given that cash is king in RK Nagar and may have harmed DMK candidate Maruthu Ganesh’s chances to an extent.

Though most believe that the election result on Sunday could make or mar Sasikala nephew Dhinakaran’s political future, and a loss for the AIADMK could create fissures in the already divided party, it has become equally important for Stalin to register a victory considering that the recent 2G order exonerated his party.

Till Thursday, before the 2G order came, the DMK had given the impression of being complacent, almost as if losing in a constituency that has been an AIADMK bastion and had elected party chief Jayalalithaa twice, won’t be seen as much of a setback. Its campaign did not have the energy usually associated with the DMK.

Not anymore. With the taint of 2G gone, the DMK is now seen as the party poised to return to power in Tamil Nadu and will be expected to have its nose ahead in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019. A loss in RK Nagar will raise uncomfortable issues.

If the DMK cannot win in a post-Jayalalithaa order, at a time when the AIADMK is riddled with factional feuds, Stalin’s skills in electoral management will be questioned. More so because the DMK has already lost two elections that Stalin led the party in – 2014 and 2016. “A loss will certainly worry us,” a DMK leader told me.

The humiliation will be worse if Dhinakaran, as some polls have indicated, wins the election from RK Nagar. Stalin can probably explain an AIADMK win, attributing it to the electorate’s affinity with the two-leaves symbol. But a loss to Dhinakaran, who has no party paraphernalia with him and contested as an independent candidate, will be hard to digest for the party.

Post her acquittal, DMK MP and Stalin’s step-sister Kanimozhi is expected to assert herself. For the last six years, Karunanidhi’s daughter has been maintaining a low-profile, more than conscious of the taint associated with her name. Within the party too, there were whispers that the DMK lost power in Tamil Nadu because of the 2G scam. Now Kanimozhi will want to turn the clock back and play a dominant role in the party.

By giving a host of interviews to both national and vernacular channels in New Delhi, Kanimozhi created quite a splash on Thursday. It was her way of telling Chennai she is back.

Since the 49-year-old is one of the few telegenic DMK leaders who is also articulate in English, Kanimozhi is well placed to be DMK’s face in New Delhi. Being a poet like her father will endear her to the cadre and she has the standing to appeal to women voters in Tamil Nadu, who usually preferred the AIADMK because of Jayalalithaa. In Kanimozhi, Stalin has therefore got a leader who can be effectively tapped.

The plan now in the run-up to 2019 is to give Kanimozhi a Murasoli Maran-esque role in the national capital. This will mean keeping channels of communication open with both the Congress and the BJP, while coordinating with other regional parties to be part of a pan-India political architecture. Stalin has indicated his anti-BJP position on several occasions, which means the DMK will be a part of the UPA.

Stalin distributed sweets to mediapersons in Chennai soon after the verdict was out but he would be wary not so much of the party, but his family. The DMK’s first family has been both the party’s strength as well as its Achilles’ heel.

While Stalin’s step-sister comes with her pluses, a resurgent Kanimozhi also has the potential to emerge as a power centre within the party. She could be tapped by MK Alagiri, with whom brother Stalin does not have good relations. Alagiri is out of the DMK but he would not hesitate to create problems for Stalin.

Which is why it is important for Stalin to ensure Kanimozhi stays firmly on his side, accepting him as her leader. By making her handle the Delhi end of the operations, Stalin will also make the division of labour clear. Problems with Alagiri arose because he looked to control southern Tamil Nadu for the DMK. Unlike Alagiri, Kanimozhi is a Rajya Sabha MP, with no constituency to nurture back home.

In the past year-and-a-half, with family patriarch Karunanidhi ailing, Stalin has tightened his grip over the DMK. There is no opposition within the party to his leadership, as the rank and file knows he is Karunanidhi’s chosen one. But now that Kanimozhi has won her legal battle, it is important for Stalin to hit a winning shot on the RK Nagar pitch as well.