A glimpse into what the 2019 political campaign in J&K might look like

Srinagar: The recent political churning in Jammu and Kashmir has already set the tone for upcoming elections in the state, which is likely to witness the emergence of a third front led by Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC), a party that might challenge the region’s more traditional parties such as the National Conference, Congress and People’s Democratic Party.  

The decision on whether to hold the Parliamentary or Assembly elections first is also likely to have a bearing on the political landscape of the state in coming months, as it would effectively determine the possibility of pre-poll alliances between parties as well as set the mood during the upcoming polls. This may have a major effect on the voter turn-out as well, irrespective of the dismal electoral turnout in the recent Urban body polls and Panchayat elections that took place in the valley.   

Issues pertaining to development are likely to take a backseat in the run-up to state and general elections in 2019. Instead, Kashmir’s special status will now be seen at loggerheads with vikas, an idiom that has, for now, remained a cornerstone of  Bhartiya Janata Party’s election campaigns.  

But where do various political parties in the Valley stand as of now?

On November 21, 2018, Congress, NC and PDP announced the possibility of a grand alliance in the state in a bid to halt the emergence of a third front led by Lone, a separatist-turned-mainstream-politician who was being backed by the BJP.

However, the seriousness of the NC, PDP and Congress to actually form an alliance has been a matter of debate ever since then.

The BJP-PC camp has raised questions on the true intention behind the alliance, hinting at the fact that the parties actually wanted to create pressure to dissolve the assembly. Lone had claimed the support of 18 MLAs and both, PDP and NC, saw this as an attempt to split their parties. 

If the questions raised by BJP-PC over the seriousness of the alliance were not enough, senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, the leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha and a former J&K chief minister himself said during an interview to a news channel that his party hadn’t formally decided to back the PDP.

The next day on November 22, former CM Omar Abdullah in a press conference said that his party hadn’t given a letter of support to PDP and added that the NC’s “outside support” to the grand alliance was a bid to save Article 35A.   

However, during the making of the purported alliance and in the time that has elapsed since November 21, 2018, it is becoming clearer what the political campaign of the PDP and NC will look like.

On November 23, 2018, less than 48 hours after two warring political alliances in J&K attempted and failed at forming a coalition government in the state, Lone held a press conference at his residence in the posh Church lane locality of Srinagar.

Lone, 51, is well known among media circles for not holding back when faced with criticism or scrutiny by the press. His latest address to the media was no exception. 

There was one weak moment though. Besides the fact that arch rivals—NC and PDP—had almost decided upon stitching together an alliance along with the Congress party, what had hurt Lone the most (by his own disposition)was the newly discovered bonhomie between Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah clearly visible on Twitter.  

“See the tweets between Omar Sahab and Mehbooba Ji, yesterday. I couldn’t believe that these are two ex-Chief Ministers, all giggly and wiggly, exchanging tweets like two kids, making fun of me,” Lone said. 

Moments later, Lone regained his composure and with a clenched hand concluded the presser by stating, “No matter how much fun they make of me, they are entitled to it, that’s their choice, but we are here to stay and we will ensure that there will be a change at the top in the next election, I promise you”.  

However, he made it amply clear in his press briefing what his mandate would be. When asked his stand over article 370 and 35 A, he said that the two are sacred to him. When asked about Indo-Pakistan talks, Lone said that it was a decision for the government of India to decide as it was “above” his mandate. While the PC has made it clear that it will run on a development agenda, the same might be seen as a weak point by the party’s opponents, as indicated by leaders who spoke to Newslaundry.

Senior NC leader and former state cabinet minister Nasir Aslam Wani told this reporter that the prevalent law and order situation and anarchy in the state had prompted the three parties to come together. But now that the assembly was dissolved, the NC plans to go to the “peoples court” so that the state has a peoples government in place because “governor’s rule is not an alternative to a democratically elected government”.  

“Time and again we have seen a third front prop up, and they have failed. I personally feel this will also be a non-starter. People here will not go for any experiment anymore. They did it in 2014 by giving a chance to PDP,” Wani told this correspondent last week.

Tanvir Sadiq, advisor to Omar Abdullah said that it would be a “Herculean task” to get Kashmir’s law and order situation back to what it was in 2014, let alone pre-militancy period. He was clearly hinting at how the BJP-PDP alliance had mismanaged the law and order situation in the Valley after the killing of Burhan Wani 

“There is no doubt that people were upset by the Shopian (alleged rape and murder of two women), 2010 civil unrest, and Afzal Guru’s hanging. Then came the floods in which we were accused of mismanagement. It won’t be wrong to say that there was a wave against us and we humbly accepted the verdict. However what the PDP and PC did next is beyond repair as of now but we want to go out to the people and heal,” Sadiq said.

He also brought up the hanging of Afzal Guru during the conversation. “On the day when Burhan was killed, Mr Abdullah went on record to say that he (Burhan) was better alive. His words came true. Likewise in the case of Afzal Guru, they (PDP) made it look like Mr Abdullah had himself signed the Guru hanging order,” said Sadiq.

From what Wani and Sadiq say it is clear that his party will be gunning for Mehbooba over the “mishandling of 2016 crisis”.

Other NC leaders who spoke to this correspondent also brought up civilian killings and injuries inflicted during pellet firing since 2016 on many occasions, a move which clearly is meant to corner the PDP.  

Speaking to PDP leaders, “development” will be third on the list of priorities, the first being to safeguard the special status of the state.   

“Development and unemployment, of course, have been and will remain key issues for the PDP, but at the moment our priority is to protect Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh,” said PDP spokesperson Rafi Mir. “PDP is a firm believer in liberal politics but due to BJP’s attitude, we couldn’t achieve what we wanted to.  To complicate things further, the centre didn’t properly release funds from the PM’s ₹ 80,000 crore package with which we could have developed the state and shown the results to the people. Our priorities changed further after the killing of Burhan Wani and it took almost a year to recuperate. Had we pulled out of the coalition, people would have asked us why did we run away so we chose to stay.”

When asked about BJP’s 2019 agenda in J&K, Altaf Thakur, spokesperson of the party’s Kashmir unit, said that it was the “idea of development and good governance inspired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

“The NC and PDP have no issues to rake up so sometimes they talk about Afzal Guru and at other times about article 35 A. On the other hand, we have kept development of the state as our top priority. Article 35A is a sub-judice and BJP is not a party to the case. I think whatever the outcome, people of J&K should respect the decision of the honourable court. On our part, we have not tinkered with article 370 or 35A in the last four years and focused on development. That is what we will continue to do,” Thakur said.

While it is too early to establish what the political campaign in mainland India will be like ahead of the 2019 general election, political developments in the past few weeks clearly indicate the main fighting issue for the BJP will not be on the grounds of development alone. The ground mobilisation for the construction of the Ram temple and subsequent favourable statement by BJP leaders can only usher in a campaign that relies on polarising issues. Similarly, despite the opening of the Kartarpur corridor being seen as a peace initiative between Pakistan and India, it should be expected that the BJP will only up its ante against Pakistan. And here is where things could get complicated in Kashmir.

It is imperative to mention that both, NC and PDP, will bring up the need of Indo-Pak talks, thus putting up an image of BJP vs peace. The BJP will target the regional powers over issues like soft separatism, approach towards militancy and most importantly, development vs identity politics.

What we should expect from the campaign?

The NC’s mandate seems to be clear: evoke Burhan Wani vis-a-vis the 2016 unrest, India-Pakistan talks, article 35A and 370 and reach out to PDP’s bastions in the militant hotbed in South Kashmir. For the PDP, it might take a few more weeks to put together a strategy as they face a two-headed problem. While their bastions in south Kashmir continue to show a strong militant movement, the party also faces a threat of splitting with its leaders joining the Lone grouping.

Already former PDP MLA and prominent Shia leader Imran Reza Ansari and his uncle Abid Ansari have joined the PC. PDP has received another blow after Irfan Panditpuri, one more party leader from north Kashmir, joined Lone. Senior PDP leader Muzaffar Beg, too, had stated last month that he would join the third front if it emerges.

The PDP does not only face the threat by its rebel leaders who wanted to join Lone but also a division between Mufti loyalists and those who think that a new leadership should emerge from the party other than Mehbooba. It is in this context than senior leader Altaf Bukhari was seen by many as the chief minister of the alliance. 

However, there might be some sort of silver lining for the PDP as the warring political groups in PDP seemed to have been reigned in to some extent—at least for the moment. 

PDP MLA Abdul Majeed Padder was the first one to rebel against the party and in July 2019, after the fall of the PDP-BJP alliance, also had hinted at forming a new alliance with the BJP.

When my leader late Mufti Muhammad Sayeed could go for an alliance with BJP, why can’t we form the government with BJP, Padder had said.

However, last week, Padder offered what can be seen as his defence. “I am an MLA and have one agenda to work for the people. This can only be achieved when there is a government in place. Do you expect me not to work for the people and then again go and ask for votes. That is not me. If there was a floor test I would have gone in favour of whoever wanted to form a government so that we can do justice by people,” Padder said. 

For now, the NC and the PDP have not made any noticeable public remarks against each other or the Congress party, but commentators and political experts here believe that it is only a matter of time until the two lash out at each other, and more importantly, at the BJP. Given that both parties have been in an alliance with both BJP and Congress in the past, only time can tell how honest will their opposition be to the saffron party.