Who will bell the cat: Confronting China’s brazen aggression on Taiwan and beyond

Over the past few months, China has displayed an ominously audacious stance towards Taiwan. This display may have reached its pinnacle last week when an astounding 149 Chinese aircraft invaded Taiwan's airspace all through last week. Some experts thought the purpose was to cause disturbance prior to Taiwan’s national day on October 10.

This rapid escalation by the Chinese military around Taiwan raised concern around the world. The US State Department expressed grave concern saying that China of carrying out "provocative military activities" that "undermines regional peace and stability". The US reiterated that its commitment towards Taiwan was "rock solid".

The Chinese state-affiliated newspaper, the Global Times, retorted with the following: "The strategic collusion between the US and Japan and the DPP authorities is becoming more audacious, and the situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for manoeuvre teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war may be triggered at any time.”

Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen responded with an article emphasising Taiwan’s staunch commitment to democratic values and vowing to confront Chinese aggression. The defence minister of Taiwan called this the worst phase in 40 years.

Earlier last week, US president Joe Biden said that he had spoken to Chinese president Xi Jinping and they had agreed to abide by the ”Taiwan agreement”. It sounded most reassuring. However, most perplexingly, the transcription of the conversation had no mention about Taiwan or the Taiwan agreement. Worse, there is no “Taiwan agreement” to begin with.

Perhaps Biden’s memory was playing tricks with him again.

A few days later, China was back to its words of aggression. President Xi Jinping said "reunification" with Taiwan "must be “fulfilled peacefully”. He also warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.

The root cause of this continued hostility is China has always viewed Taiwan as its own province. However, for most of its history, Taiwan was inhabited by Malayo-Polynesian tribes that have no relationship with China. Geographically, Taiwan is much closer to the Philippines than to the Chinese mainland. Following China’s recent aggression, US troops have been helping the country prepare in the event of attacks.

Hence, China realises that its actions can easily cause a full-on military conflict. Surprisingly, it doesn’t seem to be too concerned at this juncture about being provocative. The Chinese see this as their opportunity not only to recapture Taiwan but also to dominate the entire region.

This isn’t the only act of military action that the Chinese are involved in.

A week ago, Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in an armed confrontation in Arunachal Pradesh, along the Line of Actual Control. Sources have said the Indian troops intercepted around 200 Chinese soldiers.

In what could be seen as overtly confrontational, China firmly opposed vice president Venkaiah Naidu’s recent visit to Arunachal Pradesh, even going on to say that it has never recognised it. It asked New Delhi to “stop taking actions that would complicate and expand the boundary issue”.

Hours later, India vehemently rejected Beijing’s statement, saying Arunachal Pradesh is an “integral and inalienable part” of India and objection to visits of Indian leaders to a state of India “does not stand to reason”.

A few days ago, Chinese state-affiliated media carried videos of captured Indian soldiers being blindfolded and paraded by the Chinese PLA. The authenticity or time period of when these videos were shot hasn’t been established.

India and China have had a history of military standoffs since they entered into a full-scale war in 1962. Since last year, Chinese aggression has escalated as the Chinese army repeatedly attempts to trespass India’s borders and even build infrastructure in India.

China has also continued its military build-up in Tibet. There are reports of the Chinese air force building an airfield in the Tibetan Autonomous Region. This airfield is located just north of the Lipulekh pass which is around 20 km from the LAC.

China has also displayed aggression across the Atlantic. Back in December 2018, Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou was detained by Canadian authorities based on a US warrant that accused Meng and Huawei of violating US sanctions by misleading HSBC Bank about the extent of Huawei’s ties with Iran, which is on a US sanctions list.

In retaliation, China arrested two Canadian nationals and sentenced them to 11 years of imprisonment on espionage charges. This was clearly an act of “hostage diplomacy”.

The Biden administration capitulated, Meng was released, and a “deferred prosecution” was agreed upon. Following the release of Meng, China liberated the imprisoned Canadian nationals.

China has developed a significant outreach on the economic front. Over the past decade, China has invested or committed more than $150 billion in Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

China has become a key political and economic power in the African continent within just a few decades by a series of shrewd investments and financial aid. Experts have called this the most important development in Africa since the end of the Cold War.

China has also invested in Europe in both the public and private sector in countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, etc. Analysis by Bloomberg last year showed that China currently owns or has a stake in, four airports, six maritime ports, and 13 professional soccer teams in Europe.

China has already overtaken the US as the world’s top destination for new foreign direct investment last year.

The Chinese have a common strategy to achieve their political and economic influence.

They provide “unconditional” financial aid strictly for impoverished countries. They help build modern infrastructure with deferred payments across the world. They invest heavily in both the public and private sectors.

They also cultivate assets among local elites within a country. Rapidly the country and key individuals are compromised and burdened with debt and eventually become totally subservient.

China continues to obfuscate and prevent any transparent investigation of the link between the Covid-19 virus and laboratories in Wuhan. Despite the almost irreparable damage that Covid has caused, there has been very little in the form of verbal condemnation or pressure applied on China by global powers. Perhaps because these countries are either compromised or stand to gain economically from China.

China is now the colonial power that the British once used to be. The quote “The Empire on which the sun never sets” – that emanated from the fact that British occupied territory was so extensive that at any one time there was daylight in one of the territories – currently applies to China.

Unlike Great Britain, China does not need to physically occupy these countries. Its financial influence is sufficient to cause these countries to prostrate and behave like their minions.

Back to the aggression towards Taiwan, the question remains: why now?

After president Donald Trump’s departure from the White House, there are few in Washington who can or even desire to aggressively confront China on the economic or political, or military front. Joe Biden is undeniably a diminished man whose mental faculties are rapidly declining. Biden may even be probably compromised because of his son Hunter Biden’s shady dealings in China.

Early this year, after Biden occupied the White House, there were angry exchanges between Biden administration officials and Chinese officials during a meeting in Alaska. A Chinese official even scolded Biden’s people saying that the US is not qualified to "speak from a position of strength" when criticising China on human rights since Black people are "slaughtered" in the US. China clearly has no hesitations being demonstratively hostile towards the US.

Biden’s chaotic and ill-planned withdrawal from Afghanistan undid whatever progress was done in that country such that the US had to seek permission from the Taliban to evacuate 200 of its own citizens. This was particularly disastrous after the US spent almost $ 5.8 trillion and was present in Afghanistan for 20 years.

The US has vowed to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan in every way possible. But the US had also pledged to protect Afghanistan but following the betrayal by the US, that country is more volatile than an overturned beehive.

The Global Times claimed that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan meant that Taiwan was likely to be “abandoned”.

For decades, the US has adopted a "strategic ambiguity" in dealing with Taiwan, where it remains deliberately vague about whether it would come to Taiwan's defence in the event of an attack by China. Afghanistan's messy withdrawal has understandably left Taiwan pondering about the validity and trustworthiness of its alliance with the US.

China now sees the US as weak and ineffectual whose influence on the global stage is waning, despite its military superiority.

China has considerable economic and political influence around the world such that it knows few would want to challenge its superiority.

China has also built itself militarily such that it thinks that unlike before, it can hold its own against the US which is far superior militarily. Back in 2019, China spent $261 billion on its military, while the US military spending was $649 billion.

After the considerable economic slowdown and chaos due to Covid, it is unlikely that any global has the appetite for a full-scale war.

China thinks it has all its pieces perfectly placed on the global chessboard for power such that it is willing to display belligerence towards Taiwan.

The big question is if China is allowed to take over Taiwan without much challenge, where does this aggressive expansion stop?

As President Marshall played Harrison Ford said in the film Air Force One, “If you give a mouse a cookie, it's gonna want a glass of milk.”

Is the world ready to stand up to China?