The Thackerays are back on stage. But will the script sell in 2025 Mumbai?

From branding South Indians as “yandu gundu” in the 70s to targeting North Indians as “bhaiyas”, regional identity has long been the Thackeray brand’s go-to political weapon – first with Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, then with Raj Thackeray’s breakaway Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Decades later, with both Uddhav and Raj politically sidelined, the Marathi Manoos card is back in play.

This month, the estranged Thackeray cousins shared a public stage for the first time in nearly two decades, reuniting under the banner of Marathi pride. It appeared to be a calculated gamble, ostensibly aimed at the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, and at reclaiming relevance in a state where the ground has shifted dramatically – parties led by the two had their worst show in the 2024 polls. 

Political analyst Parimal Maya Sudhakar, who heads the School of Government at MIT, Pune, says the cousins were “scouting for opportunities” to stay relevant. He says the opening came with the Fadnavis government’s now-reversed decision to introduce Hindi as a third language from Class 1 – a move the Thackerays swiftly spun into a larger battle to save Marathi.

Sudhakar, however, warns that the strategy has its limits.

“Whoever wins Mumbai will be seen as the real Shiv Sena…However,  their strategy has limitations. Mumbai’s demographic has changed drastically. This unity might consolidate Marathi votes to some extent, but it won’t be enough to win the BMC. The BJP will counter this by mobilising a broader Hindu vote base across Mumbai including Gujaratis and North Indians.”

Commenting on recent instances of violence against Hindi speakers by MNS cadres, he said this kind of “vigilantism might stir emotions temporarily, but it doesn’t work beyond a point”. “This issue may carry weight in Mumbai, but in the rest of Maharashtra, it has little resonance. In fact, the Shiv Sena (UBT) alliance partners are distancing themselves from the reunion because of the Bihar elections. This Mumbai-based regional rhetoric could hurt their prospects in north India. Moreover, this growing Shiv Sena-MNS chemistry isn’t ideal for Congress either. If MNS joins the alliance and  these two dominate, Congress could lose its leadership role within the MVA.”

Jayant Mainkar, senior political journalist and analyst, said that three parties are battling over the legacy of the undivided Sena — Shiv Sena (UBT), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and the MNS. Of the three, Raj Thackeray is the weakest in terms of political weight, while Uddhav, though struggling in the assembly, still has a committed cadre base — stronger than Shinde’s, he said.

“If Uddhav and Raj join hands, pooling their Marathi vote shares — roughly 20 percent and 7 to 8 percent respectively — they could become a serious force. But even a small split matters. If Raj walks away with just 5 percent of the Marathi vote, it could give the BJP a crucial edge. Right now, Uddhav needs Raj more than Raj needs Uddhav. Raj has already lost ground, so going solo won’t dent him much. But Uddhav can’t afford to go alone. He risks losing his traditional stronghold. Had the political blunder of imposing Hindi not occurred, the Marathi vote would likely have remained fragmented across all three parties, and Raj Thackeray would have emerged with the smallest share.”

“Mumbai may be a cosmopolitan city, but nearly 40 percent of its voter base…is Marathi-speaking. While not all Marathi voters will back Uddhav or Raj Thackeray, around 30 percent of them might in the present situation. That alone can tilt the scales, and it’s a scenario that wouldn’t have emerged had Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis not blundered with the Hindi imposition. That misstep has given the Thackeray cousins a rare shot at political relevance,” Mainkar said.

The election to the BMC, which is seen as the crown jewel of municipal corporations in Maharashtra, was supposed to happen in 2022, but it has been delayed due to several legal issues. It’s now expected to happen after the monsoon along with elections for other municipal polls in the state.

Unease in alliance?

The recent incidents of violence have been condemned by the governing Mahayuti, while there appears to be some unease within the Maha Vikas Aghadi about the MNS.

Clyde Crasto, spokesperson for the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), said, “If there’s an issue, it should be resolved through dialogue, not violence…we are united on the agenda of serving the people of Maharashtra. What any party does on its own is their responsibility.”

Maharashtra Congress chief spokesperson Atul Londhe said, “We opposed the government’s resolution to introduce Hindi as a third default language from Class 1 to 4 because Hindi is already part of the curriculum from Class 5 onwards. There was no need to impose it earlier, especially from a child psychology perspective. However, the way this issue has been twisted to justify violence is completely unacceptable. Congress strongly condemns such actions and will never support or tolerate this kind of aggression.”

However, a senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, claimed the Congress will never consider an alliance with the MNS. “It’s a disruptive and irrelevant party that thrives on regional controversies and violence, something that goes completely against the Congress’s ideology.”

Meanwhile, Maharashtra BJP vice president Madhav Bhandari has termed the Thackeray reunion “a calculated political gimmick under the garb of Marathi pride”.

“During their years of control over the BMC, the Marathi population in Mumbai steadily declined and they did nothing to stop it. Over 100 Marathi-medium schools, where common Marathi families sent their children, were shut down on their watch. What efforts did they make to preserve Marathi identity then? Just ask them how many Marathi speaking Rajya Sabha MPs they have.”

Manisha Kayande, senior leader of Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), said, “Imagine if people from Maharashtra go to Tamil Nadu or Kerala for work, and locals there demand that they must speak Tamil or Malayalam, would that be fair? Of course not. In the same way, no one can be forced to speak a particular language…we must find civil and lawful ways to express disagreement.”

Shiv Sena (UBT) deputy leader Sushma Andhare distanced her party from the incidents of violence and Raj Thackeray’s controversial statement urging supporters to “beat people but avoid filming it”. “What Raj Thackeray said is his personal opinion. Shiv Sena (UBT) does not endorse or support violence in any way.”

Andhare also clarified her party’s stance on the language debate: “We are not enemies of Hindi. Our stand is only about preserving Marathi , which is not just a language, but also our identity and culture. Unfortunately, our attempt to protect our culture seems to be making some people uncomfortable.”

Andhare accused the BJP of fuelling divisions. “Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is creating fear among non-Marathi communities by ignoring provocative and insulting remarks made by BJP leaders like Nishikant Dubey,” she said, questioning BJP leader Ashish Shelar’s recent comments comparing Shiv Sena (UBT) with Pahalgam terrorists.

MNS leaders could not be reached for comment. In a post on X on Tuesday, Raj Thackeray told his party members not to speak to the media and spokespersons doing so must seek his permission first.

Old playbook

Shiv Sena’s shift to Hindutva and its formal alliance with the BJP in 1984, marked a strategic expansion beyond its regional base, culminating in the formation of their first state government in 1995. MNS, born out of a similar Marathi-first ideology, saw initial success with 13 seats in the 2009 assembly elections but gradually declined as internal rifts and the post-2014 Hindutva wave pushed it to the margins. Today, with both Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS politically diminished, the revival of the Marathi card appears to be their last remaining bid to regain relevance.

Marathi language and identity politics, after all, had played a foundational role in the rise of Shiv Sena, propelling it to power in Mumbai’s civic politics for decades. Even in the 2017 BMC polls, Shiv Sena emerged as the largest party with 84 seats, narrowly ahead of the BJP’s 82 – underscoring the enduring influence of Marathi pride politics in urban Maharashtra. The MNS had seven seats.

But can the combined forces yield influence in Mumbai, which has 39.4 percent Marathi and 60.6 percent non-Marathi speakers as per the 2011 Census? Many in the city are currently riled by recent instances of violence – earlier this month, a shopkeeper was slapped, an investor’s office was attacked, and several videos surfaced showing MNS workers forcing ordinary citizens to speak in Marathi. 

Rutwik Jaykar, a lawyer and a resident of Santacruz, said, “The recent attempt by MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) to weaponise the Marathi language against non-Maharashtrians ahead of the BMC elections seems like a political suicide mission…It sets a precedent that could easily backfire on Maharashtrians living outside the state or even those visiting other parts of the country.”

Prasad Raut, a senior manager with a private company and a resident of South Central Mumbai, said, “The Thackeray cousins have come together purely for the BMC elections and nothing more. The government’s move to impose Hindi from Class first was unnecessary, and after facing backlash, they withdrew it. That should have been the end of it. But now, assaulting common people and forcing them to speak Marathi is just wrong. It is very important that Marathi language and culture should be respected and shouldn’t be ridiculed. If someone does that they should be stopped from doing so but definitely not through violence. What these politicians forget is that Maharashtra in 2024 isn’t what it was in the 1970s or even 2008.”

Amit Pathak, a resident of Dombivli, said, “It’s uncertain how long their unity will last. What’s worse is the violence they’re encouraging. It’s nothing but gundagardi.”

Nilesh Sawant, a resident of Goregaon, Mumbai, said, “I don’t think their alliance will make much of a difference. You can’t keep playing the language and identity card every time you're in political trouble…What Mumbai needs is progress, not politics of fear.”

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