Meghalaya Elections: Will a version of the Manipur formula repeat itself?

When Bharatiya Janata Party chief Amit Shah visited Meghalaya in January, he picked one of the most backward constituencies in the state for his election rally. It is a place in the Garo Hills region called Tikrikilla. To get there from the state capital, Shillong, 284 km away, is a gruelling drive of around 11 hours, the last section on tracks that may euphemistically be called roads.

Many areas in the constituency are cut off from the outside world during the rainy season, which, in a state whose name means “abode of clouds”, is a large part of the year. During those times, the mud tracks turn into mud pits, impassable for all but the most extreme vehicles available in these parts, buffalo carts.

Here, Mr Shah, who flew in by helicopter, railed against the many failures of the incumbent Congress government in the state. The Congress has been in power for the last 15 years, Mr Shah said, why is there no development? He furnished the answer himself: the money that the Narendra Modi government was sending from Delhi for the state’s welfare was being usurped by corrupt Congress leaders. If elected to power, the BJP would double the speed of development, he promised.

As pitches go, it is a good pitch. Mr Shah even mentioned “sabka sath, sabka vikas”, the mantra of “with everyone, for development of all”. This may, however, not cut much ice with large sections of voters in Tikrikilla. The reason is simple. The people here all suffer the terrible roads and the utter absence of what is usually called development, but few really believe the BJP stands for sabka vikas.

Ethnic identity remains the dominant factor in the politics of this constituency. The voters are divided along tribal and religious lines. There are the Garo tribal people, who are mainly devout Christians. There are the Rabha and Hajong tribal people, who are Hindus. And there is a population of Bengali Muslims.

The BJP’s candidate from the seat is KC Boro, who, as his surname suggests, is himself from the Bodo tribe, a small minority in the area. Mr Boro is a former minister and a political veteran. He will, however, have his task cut out.

Two things go in his favour: first, the Congress led by Chief Minister Mukul Sangma and the National People’s Party led by Garo Hills Member of Parliament Conrad Sangma are both parties with powerful Garo leaders and have put up Garo candidates. The current MLA from Tikrikilla, Michael Sangma, also a Garo, is an independent. The Garo tribe is the dominant tribe in the area but its votes will inevitably be divided. Second, Mr Boro being from a tribe that is locally not large in numbers allows him to rise above the ethnic divisions to a certain extent.

However, a strong local Rabha candidate is also in the fray, meaning the BJP’s Hindu base will also see a split.

A former Congress MLA, Sayeedullah Nongrum, who is contesting as an independent, would probably attract a large part of the Muslim vote. All this adds up to a promise of a tight multi-cornered contest.

The complex interplay of factors in Tikrikilla is specific to a single constituency in one region of Meghalaya, but it illustrates features that recur in several other places.

There is, for instance, a serious push by the organised machinery of the BJP, for the first time in Meghalaya. The party won zero seats in the previous Assembly elections held in 2013, out of 13 it contested, and garnered a tiny 1.27 per cent of the total votes polled. This time it is contesting 47 seats and had a very ambitious Mission 40 in place when it was planning to contest all 60 Assembly seats.

The BJP had its banners and flags up before anyone else and even roped in local music icon Lou Majaw to sing its campaign song in Khasi. However, its party machinery in the Garo Hills is crumbling even before the polls in some constituencies. Its support among the Garos is in tatters. The most immediate reason is the denial of a visa to the chief of the Baptist World Alliance, Reverend Paul Msiza, to attend a ceremony to mark 150 years of Christianity in the Garo Hills.

Chief Minister Mukul Sangma has seized on this to remind voters of the “agenda of the central government against the Christian community”. Before this, the party had already faced desertions after the announcement of candidates. Disappointed ticket aspirants left the party taking with them party workers in droves. Even months ago, it had begun to lose prospective candidates and supporters due to the outcry over beef in states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Last June, its West Garo Hills district president Bernard Marak had resigned over the issue. Like many others of his ilk warmly welcomed into the BJP in the Northeast, Marak is a former militant and previously led a group responsible for numerous killings and routine extortion. Marak’s resignation was followed by that of the party’s North Garo Hills chief, over the same issue.

The notion that the BJP is against Christians has taken root in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills areas of the state as well. The Catholic and Presbyterian churches, on their part, indicated their own suspicions about the party by turning down a grant of Rs 70 crore from the Union tourism ministry last month. Tourism minister KJ Alphons, a Kerala Christian, is spearheading the BJP’s campaign in the state along with Nalin Kohli and state BJP chief Shibun Lyngdoh.

The BJP symbol is, therefore, something of a liability for candidates in most constituencies in the state with its 75 per cent Christian population. There are a few constituencies with significant Hindu populations where the party has a chance. Even in those, its prospects are bolstered only by the fact that it has managed to win over strong local leaders.

Voters in Meghalaya tend to support individuals rather than parties, and follow their leaders to whichever parties they may go. This is the case even in the state capital, Shillong, where two strong BJP candidates, Sanbor Shullai and AL Hek, both of whom joined the BJP only last month, are in the fray.

The penchant to support individuals is a mixed blessing for the parties. In 2013, Congress had emerged as the single largest party with 29 seats out of 60. The second place was taken by Independents, who garnered 13 seats between them. Several of those independents have joined one or the other party in the meanwhile, but the strongest independents are still going it alone. This leaves them with their options open. In case of a hung Assembly where no party wins a majority – a likely outcome – they could be much in demand if the arithmetic so dictates.

As matters stand, the fight in the Garo Hills region of the state, which has 24 seats, is mainly between the Congress and the National People’s Party (NPP) led by former Lok Sabha Speaker PA Sangma’s son Conrad Sangma. The NPP won only two seats in its maiden outing last time but has emerged as a serious contender for power this time around. The battle in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills, which have the remaining 36 seats, is triangular, between the Congress, an alliance of two local parties – the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP)- and the NPP.

Chief Minister Mukul Sangma is a wily campaigner but he has his back to the wall this time around. He had made himself unpopular with many of his cabinet colleagues over the years. His party, the Congress, is facing serious charges of corruption and misrule. Though it is still the only party in Meghalaya with an established presence in all constituencies and is throwing its big guns into the battle, its numbers are expected to fall from the 29 it won last time. If that happens, it may find the Manipur situation repeating itself. There, it emerged as the single largest party but was upstaged by an alliance of the BJP and NPP. The cast of principal characters in Meghalaya is somewhat different. However, in case of a split verdict, a future government featuring the NPP, UDP, HSPDP and perhaps the BJP appears, at the moment, to be a possibility.

The writer tweets as @mrsamratx.