Fadnavis vs facts? EC data doesn’t match CM’s claims

After Rahul Gandhi tweeted a Newslaundry report on a sharp rise in voters in Nagpur South West, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis responded with data to shut all the criticism. He claimed there were at least 25 constituencies that saw voter numbers go up by more than eight percent between the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections – and that many of them were won by Congress candidates.

To back his claims, he listed five examples: West Nagpur, North Nagpur, Vadgaon Sheri, Malad West, and Mumbra.

However, an analysis of official data from the Election Commission of India’s statistical reports for both elections shows that the actual rise in voter count in these constituencies is lower than what Fadnavis claimed.

Additions beyond four percent and deletions beyond two percent mandate a stringent verification process, which several polling staff alleged was not followed in Fadnavis’s seat of Nagpur South West. The EC manual on voter rolls also mentions that the officer in-charge of a constituency has to keep an eye out for any deviant trends, including in additions and deletions, and a detailed report on such analyses is submitted to the EC by the state authorities. The EC and Maharashtra poll officials are yet to respond to Newslaundry’s questions about the documentation of the verification process and unusual trends.

Not 11%. Not even 6.2%

The highest rate of increase cited by Fadnavis in his response to Gandhi was in Malad West, won by the Congress’s Aslam Shaikh. The CM claimed that voters increased by 38,625, or 11 percent. But as per the EC’s statistical reports, the number of voters increased by 20,617 or six percent between the two elections. 

It’s possible that Fadnavis was not referring to the net rise – calculated after taking into account both additions and deletions – but only the number of additions. 

But even then his claims are off the mark. Even if we take a liberal view by counting all the deletions as additions: by assuming that all the deletions were voters who were added to the constituency in the same period, and not a single deletion was a voter who existed in the rolls from before the parliamentary elections. 

The number of additions could not have been higher than 22,410, or 6.1% percent, if the 1,793 deletions in the constituency were taken into account. In Lok Sabha elections, the constituency had 3.37 lakh voters which rose to 3.57 lakh in assembly elections. 

The other seats

Similarly, he claimed that in Vadgaon Sheri, where NCP (SP)’s Bapusaheb Pathare was elected, the voter count increased by 50,911 or 10 percent. 

The net increase was 35,844 voters, or 7.6 percent, from 4.68 lakh voters to 5.03 lakh voters. And the number of additions could not have been higher than 39,354, or 8.4 percent, if we count the 3,510 deletions as additions.

In Mumbra-Kalwa, won by NCP (SP)’s Jitendra Awhad, Fadnavis claimed voters increased by 46,041, which he said accounted for a 9 percent rise. But the net rise between the two elections was 41,664, from 4.43 lakh to 4.85 lakh. The additions could not have exceeded 44,387, if the 2,723 voters deleted are considered as added in the same period in the constituency.

In West Nagpur, a seat won by Congress’ Vikas Thakre, Fadnavis claimed the electorate expanded by seven percent or 27,065 voters. But the net rise was only 23,010, or 6.2 percent, from 3.65 lakh to 3.88 lakh. The additions could not have been higher than 24,534, or 6.7 percent, even if the 1,524 deletions are included in the figure.

In North Nagpur, won by Congress’s Nitin Raut, Fadnavis claimed the number of voters increased by 7 percent, or 29,348 voters. But as per EC reports, the net rise stood at 23,421, or 5.7 percent, from 4.05 lakh to 4.28 lakh. The additions cannot be more than 24,452, or six percent, even if we were to count the 1,031 deletions as additions.

Moreover, so far, the poll body has not shared the name of 25 constituencies where the CM claims that the increase in electorate has been more than eight percent. 

Newslaundry reached out to the poll body asking if the CM’s claims are true and if it can provide the list of the constituencies, along with the number of additions and deletions clocked in each one of them during different revision cycles of a voter list after Lok Sabha elections. 

In December last year, the poll body, in its response to Congress, had clarified that there are only six assemblies where the number of additions exceeded 50,000, but had not shared its names.

The EC mandates additional layers of checks and balances where the addition of voters exceeds four percent and deletion over two percent. An ECI official had told us, “You can say two percent and four percent are kind of a threshold. Deletion is more sensitive so there the threshold is kept lower. Addition is always good, but if it is more than four percent, there is a reason to double check.”

Additionally, Newslaundry’s analysis of the EC’s statistical reports of Lok Sabha and assembly elections shows that out of 288 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra, 19 saw a spike of more than eight percent. 

The Congress won in none of these constituencies. Its ally, the NCP (SP), won in Mumbra Kalwa which saw an increase in the electorate of nine percent. 

The BJP won 12 of the 19 constituencies, including Dombivali which saw the highest increase in the electorate of 13.8 percent. 

The Shiv Sena and NCP, both BJP allies, won two each. The Samajwadi Party won one – Bhiwandi East, where the electorate increased by 11 percent. The AIMIM won Malegaon East, where the increase in electorate was 13.3 percent. 

Earlier this year, Ashok Lavasa, former Chief Election Commissioner, wrote in the Indian Express highlighting that the EC has laid out elaborate instructions for its officers for the verification of electors but the process has “disturbing aberrations”. 

He had pointed out that the EC should make it mandatory for the Electoral Registration Officers to publish a list of the polling stations where the number of additions or deletions is more than the two or three percent of the previous elector’s list. He suggested that the list identifying such polling stations should be placed on the respective CEO/EC website so that everyone can know the polling stations where there is an abnormal change in the list, which would alert the EC to such abnormalities and give the political parties and the people an opportunity to scrutinise the list thoroughly. 

Newslaundry reached out to Fadnavis asking for clarification in the data discrepancy. This report will be updated if a response is received.

EC: ‘If we had data, we would have given the data’

Newslaundry sent the Election Commission a detailed questionnaire. Here is its response:

“At the ECI level, if we had the data (on the number of additions and deletions in the five assembly constituencies mentioned in the Fadnavis’ tweet), we would have given the data. It is a very localised data, and we don’t have an answer for it. We have circulated your questionnaire but have not got any response yet.”

Newslaundry also reached out to S Chockalingam, the Chief Election Officer of Maharashtra, several times but did not receive a response.

Stories like these take time and resources, both of which can be in short supply in a small team. But we do them because they’re important to the public, and because our subscribers have our backs.

You can be one too. Click here to join the tribe.