Is there really a potential change at the top in Karnataka?

Welcome to this week’s Powertrip, a political newsletter exclusively curated for TNM and NL subscribers by Dhanya Rajendran, Shabbir Ahmed, and Pooja Prasanna. In this week’s newsletter, we tell you why Congress general secretary Randeep Surjewala has arrived in Karnataka amid speculations about a leadership change. In Tamil Nadu, CM Stalin pulled up the police and state intelligence over the custodial violence case even as the DMK attempted to manage the fallout in the media and on social media.

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Fresh political turmoil in Karnataka: CM change back in spotlight

Speculation over a possible change in the Chief Minister of Karnataka has gathered steam in the last few days. So, what’s triggered the renewed political drama?

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s two-and-a-half-year term is set to conclude in November this year and his deputy, DK Shivakumar, is reportedly ramping up pressure for a leadership change. Leaders from Shivakumar’s camp have also been making public statements, demanding a transition at the top. And the pressure has sort of worked.

AICC general secretary Randeep Surjewala has arrived in Karnataka fuelling speculations further. Tasked with assessing the mood within the party, Surjewala is expected to hold discussions with MLAs and gather their feedback – essentially, a report card on Siddaramaiah’s performance. 

The Congress high command now faces a key decision: should the leadership change happen by the end of this year, or should Siddaramaiah be allowed to complete three years in office? For Siddaramaiah, completing the full term would mean surpassing Devaraj Urs’s record as the longest-serving CM in Karnataka’s history.

Meanwhile, both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have come under fire from within the party. Allegations against Siddaramaiah suggest his control over the administration has weakened, with a group of loyalists allegedly running a “transfer mafia” under his name. On the other hand, Shivakumar faces accusations of corruption, misuse of power, and intimidation of MLAs.

During a meeting convened after last month’s Bengaluru stampede, Siddaramaiah was reportedly told to rein in his inner circle. In response, he submitted a list of ministers he wanted dropped from the cabinet, including Dinesh Gundu Rao, RB Thimmapur, Laxmi Hebbalkar, and Rahim Khan. However, the high command insisted that he also consider removing ministers from his own faction – specifically Zameer Ahmed Khan and Byrathi Suresh.

Before any potential change at the top, Karnataka is likely to witness a cabinet reshuffle. Whether that reshuffle strengthens the CM’s hand or shifts the balance in favour of the Deputy CM will depend on the feedback Surjewala gathers from the MLAs.

CM pulls up State intelligence 

The custodial death of Ajith Kumar, a temple security guard in Tamil Nadu’s Sivaganga district, has put the state government and the police at a disadvantage. With the Assembly election months away, the incident has not only embarrassed the DMK but also sparked concerns within the party over the potential for a damaging narrative to take hold.

Chief Minister MK Stalin convened a law and order review meeting with top police officials.

Sources in the government told TNM that the CM was stern and made it clear that if another such incident occurs, heads will roll. He was reportedly furious with the police for withholding facts, and turned his ire on the state intelligence wing for concealing crucial information and misleading the government.

The CM, we are told, had notes in his hand and warned officers of indulging in factional feuds within the department. 

“This is my department and I gave you freedom to ensure that law and order is maintained. Your actions have disappointed me. Despite warnings, these incidents are taking place. This is bringing a bad name to me and the government. I cannot tolerate this anymore. Some senior officers are misusing the freedom given. I cannot tolerate that. I wanted to congratulate you in this meeting, but instead the Sivagangai incident happened. People coming to police stations should be treated with dignity. I have pointed this out many times. I am worried about what is happening,” the CM said, according to a source.

Officers present at the meeting were unable to defend the actions of the men in khaki. Stalin told the DGP that if there is evidence against the police officers, they should be arrested and necessary action must be taken against those responsible. 

This is why the police department swiftly swung into action to do some damage control. 

Meanwhile, the DMK’s internal strategy team scrambled to manage the fallout in the media and on social media. But their efforts have largely fallen flat, as the mounting evidence cannot be ignored. 

Party representatives have reportedly reached out to editors, urging them to avoid debating the custodial violence case and suggesting alternative topics for coverage.

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