Tamil Nadu hung assembly: What are TVK and Vijay’s options?

Tamil Nadu is not a state known for fractured mandates. For decades, voters in the state have delivered decisive verdicts, largely alternating between the two Dravidian giants, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), and rarely leaving room for post-poll arithmetic. 

That is what makes the 2026 assembly election result extraordinary.

Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting its debut election, has not only outperformed both the DMK and AIADMK but has also pushed the state towards a hung assembly. When no party or alliance gets a simple majority, that is crossing the halfway mark, then it is considered a hung assembly. 

The Tamil Nadu assembly has 234 seats, with 118 required for a simple majority to form the government. As counting trends stand, TVK is emerging as the single largest party but appears to be falling short of the halfway mark by around eight to 10 seats, depending on the final tally.

If these numbers hold, TVK will face the immediate challenge of stitching together a workable majority.

What are TVK’s options?

The arithmetic suggests that TVK may not need an elaborate coalition. Support from a handful of smaller parties could be enough to push it past the 118-seat mark.

Apart from TVK, DMK, and AIADMK, the other parties currently in the fray with a small number of seats include Pattali Makkal Katchi, Congress, IUML, CPI(M), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, and CPI.

Coalition with smaller parties

The most straightforward route for TVK would be securing support from two or more smaller parties, most likely Congress, CPI, PMK and DMDK, allowing it to comfortably cross the majority mark.

Sources told The News Minute that Congress has been in talks with TVK over the last three days, anticipating a scenario where Vijay’s party may need post-poll support. Once the final numbers are clearer, these discussions are expected to intensify.

For Congress, backing TVK could be politically strategic. The party has long struggled for relevance in Tamil Nadu, where it has not independently held power since 1967. An alliance with a rising force like TVK could offer Congress an opportunity to rebuild organisationally and regain political visibility in the state.

However, coalition-building may not be entirely frictionless.

For example, the VCK historically has been at odds with the PMK, which has often been criticised by rivals as primarily caste-driven in its politics. This means TVK may eventually have to choose between mutually incompatible allies, rather than simply aggregating numbers.

That said, with most smaller parties winning only single-digit seats, any coalition arrangement is likely to leave TVK in a position of strength. None of these parties would individually command enough leverage to dictate terms, giving Vijay considerable negotiating space.

Outside support from AIADMK

A second, more politically complex option would be outside support from AIADMK, which at one point surged briefly into second place during the first half of counting before slipping back to third.

Speculation about a possible TVK-AIADMK understanding has existed for months. Before the election, there were reports of exploratory talks between the two camps, with a potential anti-DMK alignment being discussed.

But the BJP remains the central complication.

TVK has repeatedly signalled unwillingness to align with the BJP. For any formal or informal arrangement with TVK to materialise, AIADMK may have to distance itself from or even exit the NDA, a move with significant national and state-level implications.

Whether AIADMK is willing to take that step remains unclear, and could prove to be the biggest obstacle to such an arrangement.

A political reset for Tamil Nadu

Regardless of how government formation plays out, the 2026 election has already disrupted Tamil Nadu’s political script.

For nearly six decades, the state has largely remained under the dominance of Dravidian parties, with power alternating between the DMK and AIADMK or their alliances. A debutant party not only breaking that duopoly but potentially leading government formation marks a profound shift in voter sentiment.

The coming days will determine whether Vijay can convert electoral momentum into stable governance. But even before that, Tamil Nadu politics has entered unfamiliar territory.

This report was republished from The News Minute as part of The News Minute-Newslaundry alliance. Read about our partnership here and become a subscriber here.

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