Early counting trends from five state and union territory assembly elections point to a possible BJP breakthrough in West Bengal and an unexpected frontrunner in Tamil Nadu in the form of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s new party.

In West Bengal, where votes are being counted for 294 seats, early trends show the BJP leading in over 181 seats, crossing the majority mark, while Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is leading in around 92.

The result, if it holds, would mark a significant shift. Bengal has long resisted the BJP, and the election was fought in the shadow of a bitter dispute between Mamata Banerjee and the Election Commission over its Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, which removed 89 lakh voters – roughly 11.6 per cent of the state’s electorate – from the rolls. That figure is slightly higher than the TMC’s winning margin in 2021.

Mamata Banerjee herself is in a close contest from Bhabanipur. She trailed after the second round of counting before pulling ahead in the third. The lead remains narrow and could still shift.

In Panihati, Ratna Debnath, the mother of the RG Kar hospital rape and murder victim and the BJP’s candidate, is leading in early rounds. In Jhargram, in the tribal Junglemahal belt, the TMC candidate is trailing the BJP’s Lakshmi Kanta Sau by over 14,000 votes.

Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s TVK leads, DMK trails

In Tamil Nadu, the early trends have upended pre-poll expectations. 

Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), contesting its first election, is leading in 104 of 234 seats. The AIADMK-led alliance is in second place with leads in 60 seats. 

The governing DMK, in alliance with Congress and DMDK, has been pushed to third – a surprise, given that a majority of exit pollsters had given the DMK an advantage. Axis My India had projected 98 to 120 seats for TVK, compared to 92 to 110 for the DMK alliance and 22 to 32 for the AIADMK alliance.

MK Stalin is trailing behind VS Babu of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagamin the Kolathur constituency after round 7 of counting. Udhayanidhi Stalin has taken the lead over TVK’s Selvam D with a slim margin in round 5 in Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni.

Vijay is leading in both constituencies as counting progresses. In Tiruchirappalli (East), he is ahead after round 3, maintaining a lead over S Inigo Irudayaraj of the DMK. In Perambur, Vijay is leading after round 2 against DMK’s RD Shekar.

Assam, Kerala, Puducherry

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is ahead. The Congress is leading in 63, CPI(M) in 25, the Indian Union Muslim League in 23, and the CPI in 9. The BJP is leading in 2 seats.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan picked up a lead in Dharmadom only when the counting entered the sixth round. Fourteen ministers were trailing in the state when counting began.

In Kerala, the spotlight was on a closely fought bipolar contest between the governing Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The election has been seen as a key test of whether the LDF can yet again defy Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments and secure an unprecedented third consecutive term. The state, which has 140 assembly constituencies spread across 14 districts, requires 71 seats to form a majority. 

In Assam’s 126-seat assembly, the BJP is leading in 78 seats and appears headed for a clear majority. Congress is second with leads in 24 seats, followed by the Bodoland People’s Front in 10, the Asom Gana Parishad in 9 and AIUDF in 2.

In Puducherry’s 30-member assembly, the All India N R Congress is leading in 9 seats. Independent candidates lead in 3, the BJP in 2, with Congress, AIADMK, and DMK leading in one each.

Counting is still underway. All figures reflect early trends.

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