Assembly Elections 2016: Is India becoming a Congress-mukt Bharat?

Forget the exit polls. The actual counting is underway and the results look good for BJP, TMC and AIADMK.

WrittenBy:Kaushik Chatterji
Date:
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As things stand now, it’s one each to Bharatiya Janata Party, Didi, Amma, the Left and India’s GOP, the Congress party. The results of the 2015 assembly elections, though, are likely to leave a much bigger smile on Narendra Modi’s face than the Gandhis.

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After successive electoral setbacks in Delhi and Bihar, victory in Assam comes as a much-needed shot in the arm for the Bharatiya Janata Party in general and the Modi-Amit Shah combine in particular. These poll results bring to an end 15 years of Congress administration with Tarun Gogoi at its helm.

Leading comfortably from the river island of Majuli, Sarbananda Sonowal is almost certain to become BJP’s first Chief Minister of Assam. (In related news, there is likely to be a vacancy in Prime Minister Modi’s cabinet for the post of Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports.) On India’s east coast, two women leaders have bucked anti-incumbency and are well set to continue as Chief Ministers. By far the most decisive result comes from West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress is leading in as many as 211 seats out of 294. Together, the Left and the Congress are ahead in only 73. BJP has hit double digits, which is an improvement.

Down the Coromandel, Jayalalithaa has proved all but one of the exit polls wrong. With All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leading in 137 out of 232 seats (two go to polls only on May 23), TV news channels such as India Today and CNN News 18 have issued advisories to their on-ground reporters to run for cover if they’re on her opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (DMK) turf. It’s been a close contest in some of the seats, but Amma has proven that she does indeed know best.

Over to Malabar. True to form, Kerala has continued with its tradition of rotating coalitions, bringing back Left Democratic Front at the expense of the Oommen Chandy-led United Democratic Front. Leads from all 140 seats are in, with LDF ahead in 88 and UDF in 50. Here too, there was great news for BJP, with the party all set to break its duck. Veteran O Rajagopal leads in Nemom by over 7,000 votes.

For the Congress, the fact that they are leading in Puducherry would hardly be much of a consolation. Swept out of Assam and Kerala, they have failed to make significant inroads in West Bengal despite joining hands with the Left (though some commentators have argued that this alliance has cost them their credibility in the state). Shashi Tharoor and Co can keep insisting that the Congress is, despite all the electoral setbacks, still the second party in the most number of states, therefore, the only credible national alternative.

But while BJP has had its ups and downs since the 2014 general elections, these assembly elections suggest India is actually on its way to becoming Congress-mukt Bharat.

The author can be contacted on Twitter @causticji

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