Will she? Won’t she? The question of whether Congress scion Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will actually seize the reigns of India’s Grand Old Party is one that has seen endless speculation over the years. While she has been seen campaigning for her mother Sonia and brother Rahul, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has always made it clear that she is not a politician. This year, however, that description is about to change. Priyanka is all set to plunge into active politics, sources in Congress have confirmed to Newslaundry. A formal announcement about her political debut as the party’s chief campaigner for the upcoming assembly election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) will be made “very, very soon”, according to a close aide of the Gandhi family.

Newlaundry learnt that the announcement was planned initially for June 25, but was postponed since Congress vice-president and Priyanka’s brother, Rahul Gandhi was travelling abroad.  Now with Rahul back, a consensus has been reached between Congress president Sonia Gandhi, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad (who is also in-charge of party affairs in UP) and Congress party’s election strategist Prashant Kishor. Finally, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will be pitched as the chief campaigner for the UP assembly elections. For years, the slogan doing the rounds each election has been “Amethi ka danka, bitiya Priyanka”, a clarion call from Amethi for Priyanka to contest elections. This year, it seems the call is being heard.

Pinning all hopes on Priyanka

In the last assembly election in UP, Congress managed to win only 22 out of 402 seats. It was the party’s worst performance, which has been out of power in UP since 1989. “We need Priyanka to boost the sagging morale of the party,” said one local Congress leader on condition of anonymity.

Over the years, Priyanka has made special appearances during her brother and mother’s campaigns in UP. During the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, she assumed an informal role of campaign manager for her mother. In the 2007 UP state assembly elections, Priyanka reportedly played an important role in diffusing infighting within the party in 10 assembly constituencies in the Raebareili and Amethi region.

In the run-up to the 2009 general elections, Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee (UPCC) headed by Rita Bahuguna Joshi was very keen to bring in Priyanka to spearhead the campaign in UP. However, Joshi was reprimanded by the ‘high command’— read: Sonia Gandhi — for making such a request. The reason was simple. The Congress President didn’t want Priyanka to take the limelight away from Rahul’s UP campaign. Priyanka seemed willing to tow her mother’s line. Speaking to this correspondent during the 2009 general election campaign she had said, “I am happy campaigning for my brother and mother.”

In the 2014 elections, there were rumours of Congress pitching Priyanka against Narendra Modi, but sensing an electoral wave in favour of latter, the party backtracked. Congress later called it a figment of the media’s imagination and said Priyanka’s campaign against Modi was never mooted.

This time, however, Priyanka’s official political debut is certain, say sources in the Congress party. As per the current plan, Priyanka will address a whopping 160 rallies across the length and breadth of the state, starting with a mega road show in state capital Lucknow. While details of how big the rallies or significant the locations, are yet to be known, it’s an emphatic statement of Priyanka’s political heft.

With Priyanka taking a front seat in UP, the implication is that Rahul failed to make much of an impact in UP. While the faction supporting Priyanka is upbeat about the latest development, there is sense of discomfort in the Rahul camp within the party. “Rahul is bracing up to take a much bigger role, that is of Congress party president.  That is why the AICC has asked Priyanka to take the charge in UP,” said a leader close to Rahul.

However sibling rivalry is the least of Congress’s woes, as far as UP is concerned. Since 1989, the state has been out of bounds for the Congress and it lacks a credible face there. Internal bickering within the party has also damaged its chances in the polls. “Most of the senior leaders, for instance Pramod Tiwari, have done more damage to the party than good. Either senior leaders covertly work for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or Samajwadi party (SP),” a Congress leader from the state told Newslaundry.

She’s got the look

On record, both senior and junior leadership of the party are non-committal about Priyanka’s new role. However, hints abound. “Priyanka Gandhi as a chief election campaigner of UP is surely going to boost the party morale,” said Akhilesh Pratap Singh, spokesperson of Congress. “But a final decision in this regard would be conveyed by party high command only.” Ghulam Nabi Azad had also clearly said that there is an overwhelming desire among Congress workers to see Priyanka pitching along Rahul in the UP electoral battle.

Congress and Priyanka will both be hoping to cash in on the emotional connection she has with voters, particularly since everyone notices a resemblance between Priyanka and her grandmother, Indira Gandhi. It’s a similarity that Priyanka strives to maintain. During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Priyanka carefully chose her attire for the campaign. To bring back memories of the late Indira Gandhi, she wore sarees that she inherited from her grandmother. Speaking to a few reporters – this correspondent was one of them – in Rae Bareli, she said she’d altered her grandmother’s sari so that it fit her. “My grandmother was shorter than me. So I made some modification in Indiraji’s sari,” she’d told the assembled media.

Priyanka isn’t relying only on her face and wardrobe. A staffer with Press Trust of India (PTI), Abhinav Pandey, who has extensively covered recent electoral campaigns of all three Gandhis, said of Priyanka, “She knows most of the Congress workers in Amethi and Rae Bareily by their name. Her convoy would stop midway and she would interact with locals like she had known them since ages. It is remarkable.”

Asked about the timing of projecting Priyanka for the UP assembly election, a Congress leader close to her said, “She is Brahmastra (a divine destroyer) and the UP elections are perfect time for her launch.” Congress hopes that if Priyanka succeeds in reviving the party in UP, which also has the maximum number of parliamentary constituencies in India, it will help them turn the tide in the Lok Sabha election of 2019.

The big fight

“It is wishful thinking on the part of the Congress,” said JP Shukla, former UP state head of The Hindu. “Priyanka’s projection is not going to make much of difference.” According to Shukla, the political revival of Congress in the state is only possible when all it state leaders stand united and work at the grassroot level with party cadres. “Congress is out of power since 1989 [in UP]. Its tally of seats has gone from bad to worse. No new leader, who can be projected as the face of the party in UP has emerged while the old guard has become inconsequential. Priyanka’s factor could help Congress to improve its tally of assembly seats just by a few more,” Shukla told Newslaundry.

Aside from Congress’s state of disarray, there’s also the way elections work in here. There is a famous saying about UP that “people don’t cast their vote, they vote their caste.” The reason why power keeps changing hands between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati. With strong backing of Muslim, Yadav and Thakur votes, Mulayam enjoys considerable clout in the state despite SP being thrown out of power from time to time on law and order issues. Similarly, relying on social engineering formulae comprising Dalit and Brahmin votes, Mayawati is a key player in UP politics.

Considering that traditional vote base of Congress comprising upper castes and Dalits, shifting to BJP and BSP respectively, it is going to be a tough challenge for Priyanka to contest election solely on the twin issues of law-and-order and development.

Though the chances of Congress becoming a decisive factor in UP even after Priyanka heading the campaign is difficult, it might help the party in improving its tally in the state. If the gains are substantial, a larger role for  Priyanka will be an obvious next step. As Shukla put it, “If Priyanka Gandhi leads UP Assembly election campaign and wins, she naturally becomes party’s PM candidate in 2019. Can Rahul Gandhi handle this?”