Until Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made the sacrificial offering of his close confidant and information minister, Pervaiz Rashid, to propitiate the real rulers of the Islamic State of Pakistan – Pakistan Army – it appeared that, after some buffeting, Sharif would ride out the storm of protest that was being built up against him by his political nemesis Imran Khan. (The army was reportedly seething with rage after a story appeared in Dawn earlier this month revealing its policies towards neighbouring countries and on ‘non-state actors’ was resulting in Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation.) But far from buying peace with the army, the culling of a crony, in the midst of what is being touted with typical Punjabi hyperbole as a ‘fight to the finish’, has sent a signal of weakness, panic and even desperation, to Nawaz Sharif’s political adversaries. This was a time for closing ranks and staring down the opposition. Instead, Nawaz Sharif has blinked and thrown one of his own to the wolves, who in any case will not be satisfied with anything less than his own scalp.

Ostensibly, the civil-military tension has nothing to do with Imran Khan’s threat to jam Islamabad until either Nawaz Sharif resigns or he accepts an inquiry on the opposition’s terms into the Panama papers leaks. But in the Byzantine intrigues of Pakistani politics, nothing is quite what it appears to be. There is always some connection — regardless of how bizarre, ridiculous or contrived it may seem to be — between what happens in Islamabad (seat of the de jure government) and what the thinking is in Rawalpindi (seat of the de facto rulers – the army).

Even the last time Imran Khan did his version of ‘Occupy Islamabad’ protest, which he called Azadi March, there was a hidden hand – according to some ministers’, four or five Corps Commanders and the then ISI chief along with his immediate predecessor – behind the entire drama. Apparently, the conspiracy was to provoke Nawaz Sharif to a point where he would lose his cool and sack the army chief, which would then force the army to step in and get rid of both Nawaz Sharif and the sacked Raheel Sharif. At one point of time in the 2014 protest, it was touch and go when demonstrators stormed government buildings. But for a variety of reasons, including divisions within the army (Raheel Sharif had become wise to the conspiracy and ensured it didn’t succeed) and the fact that Nawaz Sharif held his nerve and desisted from any precipitate action, the government survived.

Once again, a similar situation is developing. Only this time, things may just turn out very different from 2014. The positive spin that the government sought give through the Dawn story has gone horribly wrong and has been used by the army to insinuate that Nawaz Sharif’s government has damaged national interest and security by ‘feeding’ a ‘fabricated and false’ story to the press. This is a theme that has also been latched on to by Imran Khan who is calling Nawaz Sharif a ‘national security risk’, a title that in an earlier avatar Nawaz Sharif used to bestow on his earlier bete noire, Benazir Bhutto. Coming as this does on the back of the opposition clamour for an inquiry into the assets of the Nawaz Sharif family abroad, it’s a bit of a double whammy for the Pakistani Prime Minister.

The corruption charges related to expensive properties owned by the Sharif family in London are not new. They have off and on been made for the last nearly 25 years. But Nawaz Sharif successfully stonewalled the allegations of corruption. After the Panama Papers scandal broke out, he must have thought that this time too all he needs is to sit it out and it will all fizzle out within a few weeks. Except that it hasn’t. And the only reason for that is Imran Khan’s doggedness in pursuing the issue and making it the central point of his campaign against Nawaz Sharif. That campaign is now reaching its critical point with Imran Khan planning yet another ‘occupy Islamabad’ protest in which he intends to shut down the capital city by bringing in a million people to press for his demands.

What is really spooking the ruling party is that the army is once again believed to be using Imran Khan as its cat’s paw against Nawaz Sharif and his coterie. For his part, Imran is willing to play the army’s game simply because he knows or fears that if Nawaz Sharif is allowed to complete his term in office, he will most likely win the next general elections. With the army and Imran on one side, the deck seems loaded against Nawaz Sharif. There are rumours – according to a seasoned Pakistani journalist, rumours in Islamabad are actually pre-mature facts – that Nawaz Sharif is itching to return to his ‘I will not take dictation from anyone’ self. If indeed Nawaz Sharif’s patience and forbearance runs out, then he could enter into a head-long confrontation with the army. The problem is that the civilians normally end up on the losing side of such a confrontation.

It is of course possible that Nawaz Sharif may avoid taking on the army directly and instead crackdown hard on Imran Khan and his supporters to outmanoeuvre the forces arrayed against him. Over the last few days, it has become quite clear that the government will try and ensure that Imran cannot rustle up big crowds in Islamabad. Imran’s party workers are being arrested, obstacles have been placed to prevent large numbers of people coming into Islamabad, close associates of Imran are being bottled up so that they cannot organise and mobilise the crowds. All this is par for the course in the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics. Without a sizeable crowd, Imran’s challenge will end up a damp squib. But it is critical that the government doesn’t go berserk in pre-empting Imran’s plan to jam Islamabad. Any outbreak of violence in which a few people get killed in police firing and things could easily snowball out of control. At that stage, the government will need the army to restore order, and if the army is reluctant to bail out Nawaz Sharif, then it could mean curtains for him.

Everything will however depend on the numbers Imran can muster on the streets of Islamabad. In September, when Imran Khan had organised the Raiwind march, no one expected the sort of turnout he had managed. With all the mobilisation that has happened since the Raiwind protest, chances are that Imran Khan will be able to hold an impressive show in Islamabad. There are also reports that, under instructions from their handlers in the military run intelligence agencies, workers and supporters of banned terrorist organisations could add to Imran Khan’s numbers. Assuming he manages a big enough crowd, there is the whole question of how long he will be able to sustain the crowd to pressure the government to concede to his demands. But most important will be how much blood will flow.

Even without blood being spilt, if Imran can lockdown Islamabad, there will be enormous pressure on Nawaz Sharif to throw in the towel. If at that time he stiffens his back and refuses to kowtow to demands of the opposition and the army – the latter wants the civilian government to basically reconcile itself to running municipal functions and leave all big decisions, including on foreign and security policy, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and the all-important issue of who will decide who the next army chief will be – then the army will either be forced to step in directly and force Nawaz Sharif out of office like it did in 1993, or else it could use the judiciary to force Nawaz Sharif to step down. A coup through the judiciary will save the army a lot of constitutional and legal problems that come with direct intervention.

Clearly, for the second time in his third stint as PM, Nawaz Sharif finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place. If he accepts the opposition’s demands for an inquiry, there is a good chance that it will spell the end of his political career. Resign he won’t. He could ward off Imran’s challenge by giving in to the army. But that would reduce him to a complete figurehead, a prospect that he doesn’t quite relish. He could defy the current army chief by announcing his successor. But that is hardly going to do anything for him because the new chief (assuming that he is willing to do Nawaz Sharif’s bidding which in itself is extremely unlikely) will assume office only by end-November, by which time the political cookie will most probably have crumbled one way or another. Finally, Nawaz Sharif could decide to dig in his heels and stick it out in the hope that the storm will pass. But the way pressure is being piled up from all sides, something’s got to give and soon. If it’s the civilians who succumb, it will mean that for the foreseeable future, civilian supremacy will remain a pipedream; if it’s the military that has to back off, it will be a shot in the arm for civilian supremacy. It is in this sense, this will be a fight to the finish. Imran Khan is only a prop in this civil-military tussle.