As soon as news filtered out that O Panneerselvam has left Raj Bhavan in Chennai, a supporter at his residence prepared for his arrival by distributing All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) flags to all supporters. “Wave (to) them when he comes and shouts slogans,” he ordered in Tamil, adding “OPS Saar, I am told, was beaming when he emerged out of the Raj Bhavan after the meeting.”

They did and cheered when Panneerselvam promised them good news very soon. The attempt was clearly to pep up supporters and make it seem that power is just a 100-odd veshtis away. The problem, however, is that over 125 AIADMK legislators have been forcibly sent to a five-star luxury resort in Mahabalipuram, 60 km away from Chennai. Not only have their mobile phones been taken away, jammers have been installed which means that the so-called paradise on this part of the earth, remains a touch-me-not communication zone. 

On the contrary, it is an open house at Panneerselvam’s durbar. The attempt is to cast him as a ‘People’s CM’, someone who does not live in an ivory tower, unapproachable, distant, regal and autocratic. Much of the social media team of the AIADMK that has migrated to Team Panneerselvam is working on the ‘OPS Anna’ brand. Since Thursday morning, a desk set up at Panneerselvam’s home was collecting phone numbers, and had over a lakh numbers in their kitty by evening. Soon those who enrolled will be getting a phone call or a Whatsapp video message from OPS, explaining why he did what he did. 

But the branding apart, what is increasingly getting clear is that even after 48 hours after his dramatic revolt, Panneerselvam has not been able to comprehensively split the AIADMK and woo a significant number of legislators. Though he claims that many of them are in touch with him, till late night on Thursday, only seven legislators were by his side. 

His team argues the case would be very different if VK Sasikala, the new leader elected by the AIADMK legislature party, were to let them free. While it sounds like a fair argument and makes it seem that the lawmakers have been coerced into submission, the fact also remains that many of them are not yet convinced that Panneerselvam is the winning horse to back. 

One of the reasons for that is the fact that Panneerselvam has always been seen as one among them. While his stock has gone up in the public eye after his dissent, fellow ministers and MLAs do not think the world of him. They dismiss him in private as someone who just got lucky twice, thanks to his over-the-top servile demeanour, given to prostrating at the sight of Amma. Sasikala, in comparison, has always been someone they have bowed to and therefore do not have an issue in accepting her leadership. The branding of Sasikala as Chinnamma also is to make them feel nothing has changed and that the presiding deity is still at Poes Garden.

Then there is also the apprehension of influence being wielded by Bharatiya Janata Party. Many AIADMK lawmakers suspect that Panneerselvam has his channels of communication open with the BJP and the Right. That is a chemistry they are uncomfortable with. This is more so because in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is seen as a Hindi-heartland party that is unable to understand the Tamilian ethos or psyche. 

Finally, let’s not forget the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) angle. Sasikala in her attack on Panneerselvam referred to the exchange of a smile between Panneerselvam and the opposition benches as proof that something is cooking between the two. Though that charge was silly, AIADMK leaders say if the situation warrants the formation of a minority Panneerselvam government with outside support from the DMK, they might as well kiss their political careers goodbye. The politics of Tamil Nadu is rooted in fierce DMK vs AIADMK rivalry and the cadre will never accept an alliance between the two. 

The winning argument for both sides is to establish themselves as the true inheritors of Amma’s legacy. The Jayalalithaa picture is common to both camps as are the visits to Amma’s memorial that serve as photo-ops. In their press interactions, both Panneerselvam and Sasikala have underlined they were trusted by Jayalalithaa. 

Those backing Panneerselvam from the sidelines are also getting a bit impatient with the lack of momentum. An attempt was even made through an industry group to reach out to the elusive MLAs without any success. 

The entry of AIADMK presidium chairman Madhusudanan is an attempt to shore up the morale. Even though veteran leader Madhusudanan is a political has-been, he is the mentor of a few prominent leaders and Panneerselvam will hope he is able to coax them to switch loyalties. The narrative being constructed is that the party leadership and the cadre are with Panneerselvam, while the “captive” MLAs are with Sasikala. 

But then again, the same Madhusudanan was at the forefront of the campaign in December to convince Sasikala to take on the mantle of the interim general secretary. He also presided over her election on December 29, but strangely is now with the group that say her election was invalid. Clearly, if Sasikala has come across as power hungry, Panneerselvam has not come out smelling of roses either. It is just that with his humble demeanour, he has been packaged as a better product for the masses. 

None of the AIADMK lawmakers want snap elections in 2017 and want to be with the leader who will ensure a spell in power till 2021. But the real game changer will be the Supreme court verdict in the Disproportionate Assets case, that should be out next week. If Sasikala is convicted, it is certain that the AIADMK legislators will have Panneerselvam on speed dial. But if Sasikala is acquitted, Panneerselvam can walk into his political sunset. 

But Panneerselvam, being an astute politician, is banking also on the people’s court. There is considerable anger against Sasikala on the ground, with the cadre and common people letting family members and supporters of legislators know in colourful language what’s on their mind. The half a dozen legislators who have crossed over, spoke of abuse from women in their constituencies if they continued to be by Sasikala’s side. Panneerselvam would hope his erstwhile colleagues have their ear to the ground instead of choosing to be His Master’s Voice.