This year’s poll battle for Manipur is primarily a close contest between an incumbent Congress chief minister, Ibobi Singh, who has been in power for 15 years, and an upstart Bharatiya Janata Party without a chief ministerial face that has been cobbled together largely from defectors from other parties.

Singh is a powerful CM who has built up networks of patronage over the years. He has also presided over a police force that rolled back, to some extent, the influence of several of Manipur’s numerous insurgent groups while allowing a large number of its personnel to become, by most accounts, corrupt, extortionate and occasionally murderous.

His party alone enjoyed a strong presence throughout Manipur’s diverse ethnic landscape. In the 2012 elections, the Congress won a total of 42 seats out of 60 seats in the state Assembly. In those polls, 28 of its seats came from the Imphal valley dominated by the Meitei community and eight from hill areas dominated by the Kuki tribe. The party was also able to pick up six out of 11 seats from the hill districts dominated by Naga tribes.

Its principal challenger was, surprisingly, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee. Other contenders included the Manipur State Congress Party (a local breakaway faction of the Congress), a coalition called People’s Democratic Front of which the Nationalist Congress Party was a major constituent, and, in some places, the Communist Party of India. The BJP and the Naga People’s Front (with which it has a troubled alliance in neighbouring Nagaland) were in the fray, but the BJP’s challenge was weak and the NPF’s restricted to a few pockets in the hill districts bordering Nagaland.

In those polls, the Trinamool wound up with seven seats, while MSCP won five and NPF four. The BJP drew a blank.

In the intervening years, the state’s political landscape changed significantly. The MSCP merged back into the Congress, and the Trinamool practically disappeared after four of its seven MLAs joined the Congress, while two joined the BJP. One of these two was senior leader K Joykishan, who has since moved on to the Congress as well.

The BJP itself managed to attract prominent defectors from the Congress. A notable addition to its ranks was senior Congress leader Y Erabot.

Its recruitment spree, however, has served to cause disgruntlement among some of those who had been with the party before the defectors came in.

The lateral entries included former police chief Y Joykumar under whose watch several of the 1,528 alleged fake encounter cases now before the Supreme Court took place. Joykumar was denied a ticket by BJP and eventually joined the NPP.

The fake encounter cases are a poll issue. Along with the former police chief, Chief Minister Ibobi Singh is seen as bearing direct responsibility for the killings, and there have been street protests to highlight this.

The killings are however not the principal poll issue in Manipur. In the Imphal valley, the unity and territorial integrity of Manipur is.

For many years now, a slow peace process has made halting progress in nearby Nagaland and the Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur. One crucial demand of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah), which for many years has been the main Naga insurgent outfit, is the integration of lands inhabited by Naga tribes under a single administration. To Mr Muivah, the sole surviving founder of the group, this demand is not negotiable. He himself is from the Tangkhul Naga tribe from Ukhrul, in the Manipur hills.

For the Metei population of the Imphal valley, Manipur’s territorial integrity is equally non-negotiable. As a result, organisations representing the people of the hills are often at loggerheads with the state government in Imphal, which under Singh championed the causes of the valley.

One consequence of the struggle is frequent road blockades. There are two highways through which supplies are brought into Manipur, one via Nagaland and the other via Assam. Both highways pass through hills dominated by Naga tribes. Singh’s move to create seven new districts in the hills in 2016 was seen by Naga groups as an attempt to whittle down their areas of influence. The United Naga Council, in reaction, imposed a blockade on both highways in November 2016, with the consequence that petrol became a rare commodity sold at as much as Rs 300 per litre.

The valley population has been increasingly angry about this blockade. The anger, which saw a burst of violent expression when 21 vehicles were torched in one day during a “counter-blockade”, was directed at the UNC, but the state government and the Centre also drew ire as they were seen to be politicking instead of working to break the blockade.

The issues of territorial integrity and blockades are two key political issues in these polls.

A third relates to another geographical area of Manipur, this one bordering Mizoram and Myanmar. Over there, in the area around Churachandpur dominated by the Kuki and Zomi tribes, the death of nine protestors in police firing is the main issue. Those protesters were killed while protesting the Manipur government’s decision to implement the Inner Line Permit system in the state. The ILP in turn was brought in in response to a powerful agitation in the Meitei dominated valley demanding its implementation.

One outcome of the anger at those nine deaths is that the Congress’ prospects in Churachandpur are dim. The fight there is between P Tonsing of the National People’s Party led by Conrad Sangma, and V Hangkhanlian of the BJP.

The Congress is also in dire straits in the hill districts of Ukhrul and Senapati where the Nagas wield influence. The NSCN(IM) is a sworn enemy of Mr Singh and has good ties with the NPF. The group has been exercising a veto against candidates of all other parties including the BJP, who are not allowed to campaign in the areas of NSCN influence.

Of Manipur’s 60 seats, 40 are valley seats from predominantly Meitei areas, while 20 are from areas dominated by the various hill tribes.

CM Ibobi’s strategy for re-election centres around winning at least 23 of those 40 seats from the valley areas, and hanging on to the eight seats the party won from areas dominated by the Kuki tribe.

He is facing strong anti-incumbency for running an administration widely seen as corrupt and extortionate.

His antagonists span the entire political spectrum, and include the main militant outfits from both the hills and the valley, the new political party founded by Irom Sharmila, a coalition of Left parties, and former colleagues who have switched over to the BJP. These forces may not agree on anything else under the sun but would generally agree that they are keen to see Ibobi go.

However, he has positioned himself as the only real champion of the Meitei people, and will be hoping that party leaders from Kuki hill areas will be able to win their seats. His party has also used social media effectively to campaign in places where militants have discouraged Congress candidates from campaigning.

In addition, there are rumours that he is spending money liberally in order to ‘win over’ voters. The BJP has also been playing the game, according to political party workers in Manipur, albeit with less money. Paying for votes is something of a tradition in those parts, and the rates have increased this voting season, say party workers.

If Ibobi’s calculations hold, he will be able to touch the figure of 31 required to form the next government.

On the other hand, the BJP, which worked on building a grassroots campaign, has a strong chance of taking advantage of anti-incumbency. In addition, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised that the blockade will be lifted if the BJP comes to power. And he has promised Manipur development, which the youth crave.

In the Northeast states, in general, there tends to be a perception that the ruling party in the state being same as the one at the centre is good for development.

BJP’s routes to power include a scenario where it wins 31 seats on its own – the best-case scenario for the party. However, if it falls short, it would have the option of allying with the NPF, which is expected to pick up a majority of the 11 seats in the Naga areas, the NPP, which should win Churachandpur and perhaps a couple more, and smaller constituents such as the Lok Janashakti Party. Anything over 21 seats from the valley would probably bring it within striking distance of power.

Constituencies in Manipur are small and polling around 5000-6000 votes is usually enough to win in many constituencies. Even in the larger constituencies, polling over 20,000 votes normally ensures a win. With money and muscle power in play, and principal contenders well matched in both departments, predicting outcomes is difficult. Where margins of 500 votes or less can decide contests, a few thousand rupees more spent on voters, or a little more pressure from a militant group, can win seats.

The first round of voting for 38 seats on March 4 saw very high voter turnout in the range of 86.5 per cent. It is possible that this represents a wave for change. On the other hand, it may be that all parties have managed to mobilise their voters, or that there has been proxy voting in some places.

The second and final round of voting is on March 8.

The odds are stacked against CM Ibobi, but the wily old fox is not going down without a fight – if he is going down at all.

The author can be contacted at samrat.choudhury@gmail.com.