This time, the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh have many firsts to their name. It’s first time in recent memory that the governing party – Samajwadi Party (SP) –has been mired in internal feuds practically until the last minute. It’s also the first time that a Prime Minister spent three days in his own constituency to ensure victory for his party. If the exit polls are to be believed, then Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on its way to forming a government in Uttar Pradesh after 15 years.

According to every survey, BJP will either comfortably reach the halfway mark or be the single largest party. With less than 24 hours to counting, the mood outside the offices of the leading political parties in UP can be summarised as such: the BJP appears confident, SP’s cadre is nervous and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party is silent.

On Thursday, inside the BJP’s headquarters in Lucknow, the glee that comes from being confident of victory, was palpable. Workers were looking forward to shifting from this office to the Vidhan Sabha building, which is just a few metres away. Officially, party officials maintained they were ready for “all possibilities” – victory, defeat or a hung assembly – but the addition that “thousands of BJP workers will be responsible for it [the result],” implied the party is not expecting big losses. “We are positive about the results,” one worker told Newslaundry, requesting to not be named.

Taking lessons from the “ghatna (accident)” of Delhi and Bihar, when exit polls were completely inaccurate and BJP didn’t get the numbers it had been allotted, the party hasn’t ordered celebratory laddoos yet (at least officially). However, some are already in Holi mode. One Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) member said, “If we don’t win now, it seems unlikely in future too. The party is at its peak right now.” He described the winning factor to be “Modi magic”. Another BJP leader said, “We were organizationally weak in the sixth phase, but our allies there should be able to maintain the lead for us.”

Barely a few kilometres away from BJP office, the SP headquarters have a nervous energy in them at the moment. When Newslaundry visited it, there were a group of party workers sitting under the tree, right at the entrance. They confessed to feeling insecure about SP’s prospects. Even in Lucknow, they believe it will be a serious fight with BJP. Let alone victory in Central UP, these party workers were unsure even about Aparna Yadav’s (patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav’s daughter-in-law) seat in Lucknow.

“BSP dented our Muslim vote bank,” said Ankur Gupta, a 24-year-old party worker. “I have travelled to different constituencies during the campaign, and it appears BJP has benefitted from the division of Muslim vote bank.” According to Gupta, Congress, which has allied with SP in these elections, lost ground to BJP in strongholds like Amethi and Raebareli. If the SP alliance fails to clinch more seats than BJP and BSP, party workers attribute this to a division of Muslim vote bank, the Modi wave and a failure to consolidate on the caste combination.

“Is chunav mein candidate aur caste, dono factors kamjor pad gaye. Pura election Modi aur Akhilesh bhaiya ki personality ki takkar par hi hua hai (the importance of candidate and caste got diluted in this poll. The whole election was Modi versus Akhilesh Bhaiya,)” said another SP worker. He added that during the polls, he had travelled to approximately 50 constituencies and alleged that BJP had raised communal sentiments amongst voters. This could prove lethal for SP’s prospects, according to SP’s cadre.

At the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) office, there’s no chatter at all. However, her supporters point out that traditionally BSP supremo Mayawati holds her cards close to her chest, irrespective of what exit polls might have prophesied for her party. Even in 2007, pollsters predicted a hung assembly and underestimated BSP’s political clout, but Mayawati’s  BSP won 206 seats – and comfortably got the required majority. On the other hand, BJP managed only 51 seats – almost of half of what the exit polls had predicted.

With 404 seats in its Assembly, Uttar Pradesh is one of the most important states, politically speaking. Come Saturday, we’ll know the meaning of BSP’s and whether BJP and SP have jumped the gun with their reactions.

The author can be contacted on Twitter @amit_bhardwaz