The question currently haunting the Trinamool Congress is, if the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the Narada sting will cost the party the elections next year. A subject being debated seriously in the political circles of West Bengal soon after the Supreme Court refused to stay the Calcutta High Court’s verdict of the investigation by the apex agency. The party has survived several accusations of corruption in the past, but could this scandal be the final nail in its coffin?

The Supreme Court in its judgment passed on March 21, 2017, severely criticised the state government for filing such petition and directed the lawyer representing the Bengal government to tender an unconditional apology for calling the Calcutta High Court biased in the state’s appeal against the CBI probe. A division bench comprising acting Chief Justice Nishita Mhatre and Justice T Chakraborti directed the CBI to take possession of all material and devices related to the sting operation within 24 hours and to conclude the preliminary enquiry within another 72 hours.

The apex court extended this deadline and asked the CBI to complete the probe in one month.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who had been described as “displeased” with the High Court verdict termed the Supreme Court judgment “positive.”

The Narada sting was conducted in 2014, but surfaced ahead of the assembly polls last year. In March, the portal Narada News uploaded a series of videos purportedly showing senior Trinamool leaders, including former and present ministers, members of Parliament and MLAs, receiving money in exchange of favours to a fictitious company. The footage had little bearing on the outcome as the TMC effortlessly swept the elections winning 211 of the 294 seats even bettering its 2011 tally of 184 seats.

However, political analysts opine that the situation is different this time with the judiciary coming into the picture. “The intervention of the SC has completely changed the situation as people still have high regards for judiciary,” said Arindam Mukherjee, a political analyst. “They might take the order of the apex court refusing to stay the CBI probe as a sort of confirmation that the politicians of ruling party are corrupt. It might become very difficult for the leaders allegedly caught in the video to campaign for their party’s candidates. The confirmation by the Central Forensic Science Laboratory (CFSL) that the video is genuine has further added to the woes of TMC.”

Two of the ruling party MPs (Sudip Bandyopadhyay and Tapas Pal) are already behind bars for their involvement in the Rose Valley chit-fund scam, “The chit fund scams had a severe effect on the rural population of the state with several of them losing their hard-earned income and resorting to suicides. The arrest of the MPs could further play in the minds of the voters at the time of casting their votes,” he added.

The ruling party is already tainted with its alleged associations to criminal syndicates in sectors like building material, real estate, liquor, illegal bars and extortion in Bengal.

The importance of panchayat polls cannot be undermined as the three-tier electoral system is considered an indicator of the larger elections in Bengal. Trinamool Congress had started its winning march by clinching two Zilla Parishads (ZPs) in the state while the Left that was ruling the state had got 13 of the 17 ZPs in the panchayat polls of 2008.

The BJP, already upbeat given its UP victory, is leaving no stone unturned to cash in on these doubts. Sources have said, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been also playing a pivotal role in building a rural base in Bengal for the saffron party.

Dilip Ghosh, the state BJP chief, rubbished the claims of the RSS working in tandem with them but added that the party senses an opportunity to increase its vote bank in panchayat polls. “The ruling party has lost credibility among the masses and the Left has already been decimated in the state. Our activists are working at the booth level in villages informing people about the misdeeds of the TMC leaders. The RSS is helping us in our movement, but has no role politically. We hope to make good results in the panchayats elections.”

The Left, already aware of its dwindling political strength aims to expose the “dishonest party” among the people rather than focussing on vote banks. “We do not focus everything on vote politics but the goal would be to expose the party that is ruining the state. [TMC] might control panchayats even after the polls, but the internal feuds and corruption cases would make them week. We will fight the elections on the plank of restoring democracy in the state that has been brutally crushed by the Trinamool,” said Sujan Chakraborty, the senior Left leader.

Clearly aware of the fact that it would be difficult to defeat the ruling party in the panchayat elections because of its strong base in rural Bengal, the fight among the rivals is also to emerge as the principal Opposition.  Only the time would tell in whose favour the political pendulum swings.