With the next Gujarat Assembly elections just six months away, it’s the time for speculation and conjecture. Foremost among them is the probable ‘ghar wapsi’ of former Gujarat Chief Minister Shankersinh Vaghela.

Vaghela, who was responsible for improving BJP’s presence in Gujarat, is also credited for the growth of his then-junior associate and now Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

There is nothing new about one-time rebels ‘returning home.’ The present incumbent of the Rashtrapati Bhawan is another glorious example of this phenomenon, as he had also returned to fold—Congress, after a short stint with the Bangla Congress.

Thus, there is no element of surprise to the rumours about Vaghela’s ‘imminent’ return to the BJP, especially when the saffron party is spreading its tentacles all over the country.

Anyone who recollects the events of 1995 which led to Vaghela’s revolt against the first BJP ministry led by Keshubhai Patel, cannot imagine that Modi would allow his arch rival to return to the party, especially at its most popular.

It was Vaghela’s revolt against the backseat driving of the Keshubhai ministry by Modi that had him sent away to Delhi and some north Indian states. Can Modi allow Vaghela the place of pride in the BJP which is finally subservient to him? Conversely, will Vaghela swallow his Rajput pride and start taking orders from Modi, the RSS ‘pracharak’ he had inducted into the Gujarat BJP around four decades ago?

People speculating about Vaghela are possibly unaware that he is a man of very well chalked out strategy but strikes suddenly. It was Vaghela’s meticulous planning that had taken the entire BJP machinery by surprise during his revolts, first in 1995 and once again in 1996 when he brought down the Suresh Mehta ministry too.

So meticulous is Vaghela that he even takes care of his supporters’ personal preferences while whisking them away hours before crucial confidence votes in the state assemblies.

Before a crucial confidence vote during those turmoil filled days, Vaghela had to spirit away 70-odd legislators to protect them from being poached by the BJP. To honour the personal preferences of these MLAs, Vaghela had split them in two buses. While the younger, fun-loving legislators were taken for a night stay at a water park resort near Mehsana, the elderly teetotallers, and those with a religious frame of mind were taken to the temple town of Ambaji in north Gujarat.

Taking the personal quirks of his captive MLAs indicates that it would be naïve for such a focused Vaghela to drop hints about his move over to his parent party.

Those familiar with the functioning of the Sangh Parivar’s propaganda machinery would believe that the prior ‘hints’ like posters declaring him as the chief ministerial nominee could be the handiwork of the right wing party’s foot soldiers.

Given that Vaghela himself is a product of the ideology based on the power of disinformation, these can as well be his own attempts to bargain his position within the Congress party ahead of the elections.

It would be illogical and impossible for an astute politician like Vaghela to expect being made the chief minister by the BJP if he returns to it now. Back in BJP, if at all, Vaghela would immediately become another power centre, a situation neither the existing state leaders would like nor Modi and Amit Shah would approve.

If Vaghela’s ‘imminent’ return to BJP is aimed at securing a berth for his son Mahendrasinh in the ministry, it would be too little for him to stake his hard earned pride.

Getting Mahendra elected once again on a Congress ticket would not be a problem for a leader like Vaghela if he stays on, a bigger bargain for him than begging for a post in the BJP under Modi, his one-time trainee turned arch rival.

At 78, Vaghela cannot expect to be the chief ministerial nominee of the BJP with its age limit set at 75, though the rule was originally made to keep stalwarts like Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi out of the Central ministry.

On the contrary, by remaining with the Congress in its hour of crisis, Vaghela can pack its candidates’ list with his supporters and flex his muscles in case the party comes anywhere near securing a simple majority in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly.

Posters ‘declaring’ him as the CM aspirant, walking out of a meeting chaired by Rahul Gandhi and declaring not to contest an election any more could be part of a well laid out strategy to bargain his own position within the state Congress.

As a result, he may end up as Leader of the Opposition once again.

The author can be contacted at contact@newslaundry.com

[opinion]