The talks between the two rival factions of the ruling AIADMK seem to have entered a final and decisive phase, according to sources in both camps. However, the response of a senior leader in the rebel camp of O Panneerselvam, K P Munusamy that talks are not possible till the expulsion of Jayalalithaa’s aide V K Sasikala and her family members en masse, has created doubts in the minds of the merger-ites.

Munusamy has maintained that OPS would not agree for a merger till a Government announcement of a judicial probe into the death of Jayalalithaa and the expulsion of the Sasikala family from the AIADMK.

The reiteration of the twin demands has meant that OPS has not budged from his stand. Or is it meant for public consumption? Therefore, the question still lingers is whether it is a case of one step forward and two steps back for the AIADMK merger efforts.

There are stark differences between the two camps. They fight each other bitterly. Yet, the only three things that bring them together to the negotiation table again are the need for the AIADMK government to continue lest the DMK take over; the second issue is the path of confrontation undertaken by Sasikala’s nephew T T V Dhinakaran and his tactics of brinkmanship. The third is the pressure imposed by the BJP on the AIADMK leaders to unite and align with the NDA.

Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswamy knows OPS has the support of only 11 MLAs but this number is important to keep EPS in power. It is only the support of OPS to the AIADMK government that keeps EPS as CM. It is this reality that has forced EPS to seek the support of OPS and bend over backwards to keep him happy.

It is no secret that Panneerselvam badly wants to be CM again. Twice, Jayalalithaa made him the CM when she could not be in power. On Jayalalithaa’s death, the party appointed OPS again as CM. He thought he would complete a full term but Sasikala’s ambition put paid to his hopes.

Edappadi Palaniswamy is no mood to step down as CM. His supporters earlier said EPS would remain as CM and should also be the party general secretary. EPS has made a climbdown of sorts.

The alternative now offered to Panneerselvam is an attempt to meet him halfway. AIADMK sources say he could be given a senior post like Steering Committee chairman or general secretary with the post of Deputy Chief Minister. Panneerselvam’s close supporters are demanding that he should reject these offers and stick to his demand for the post of CM and the twin demands of probe into Jaya’s death and the expulsion of the Sasikala family.

A bait is being offered to the OPS group of two ministerships in the state and a post or two in the Union cabinet, besides party posts. These may be acceptable but the core issue of chief ministership and the twin demands remain as points of friction. The EPS camp is convinced that left to himself OPS will accept the posts of Deputy CM and senior party post like general secretary or steering committee chairman. While MLAs close to him would be happy with posts of ministership and in the party, a few others who are not MLAs or MPs  are against a merger as they believe the people are totally against the Edappadi-led AIADMK as it is seen as submissive to Sasikala.

OPS has to overcome these forces if he has to push through the merger proposal. Hardliners in both camps may have to be set aside or pushed aside for a merger.