The much-delayed merger of the two dominant factions of the AIADMK were ‘Modified’ on Monday as the rival camps led by Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and former CM O Panneerselvam decided to join hands after six months of protracted negotiations, brokered  by the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

CM EPS conceded major ground to his former leader OPS by having him appointed as party steering committee co-ordinator, with EPS being just a shade lower as joint co-ordinator. EPS has also granted that the party would expel Sasikala, Jayalalithaa’s former aide, now languishing in a Bengaluru jail after conviction in the disproportionate assets case. Sasikala’s family including former MP TTV Dinakaran would also be kept out of the party, EPS agreed. Minutes after the announcement of the merger, the CM, accompanied by OPS and the other ministers and MLAs went to the Raj Bhavan, where Governor Vidyasagar Rao had OPS sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister, and his associate Ma Foi K Pandiarajan as a Minister.

The entire deal had been directed by the BJP top brass on the instructions of the PM and BJP president Amit Shah. In effect, what has taken place is not just a merger of two warring AIADMK factions but also, the merger of the AIADMK with the BJP-led NDA. When she was chief minister and party general secretary, Jayalalithaa had rejected BJP’s pleas to join the NDA. She also resisted the Union Government’s pressure tactics. However, today the AIADMK leaders have a number of skeletons in their cupboard, and lack the confidence or vote-gathering ability of Jayalalithaa. Therefore, vulnerable as they are, it has been easy to manipulate the two factions of the AIADMK to take the vital steps for induction into the NDA.

For the BJP, this is a crucial step as the party is looking at allies in weak areas (where it didn’t do well enough in 2014) to improve its strength like forging new allies in Bihar and Tamil Nadu. In 2014, the BJP, despite forging a strong alliance, could win only two of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, though it registered impressive victories in many parts of the country. This time, the BJP is looking at improving the NDA tally to at least 25.

For the AIADMK, the immediate gains are the strengthening of the party at various levels especially the middle-levels and the cadre level, where OPS clearly has the upper hand. Minus the party’s two-leaves symbol frozen by the Election Commission and its vote-catching instrument Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK was caught in a bind. The positives that emerge are that the petitions before the EC would be withdrawn and it is just a matter of time before the party regains the two-leaves symbol and party flag secured by the late MG Ramachandran. With OPS at the helm of affairs, and the party symbol (to come soon), the AIADMK can now hope for a decent performance at the hustings.

This is the main reason why the EPS camp has accepted OPS and his followers, despite having majority support among the MLAs (95 to just 10 of the OPS group).

However, the Dinakaran group, smarting under the move to isolate it, has hit back with 18 of his MLAs gathering at the Jaya Samadhi to meditate as did OPS before hitting out at Sasikala. The 18 MLAs have sought time from the Governor to convey their point of view. The Governor has agreed to meet them at 10 am on August 22, according to MLA Vetrivel, a spokesman of the Dinakaran group.

The EPS government is thus seen to have been reduced to a minority government, with just 115 MLAs behind it in a House of 235 including the Speaker, although a seat is vacant and another MLA is nominated. If the Dinakaran group withdraws support to the EPS Government, the Governor would have to ask EPS to prove his majority on the floor of the House. The DMK camp with support of 97 MLAs is waiting for an opportunity to bring down the government. If the Dinakaran camp manages the support of over 20 MLAs, and if they decide to vote against the government, EPS is skating on thin ice.

The role of Speaker Dhanapal could be crucial. The EPS camp could seek the disqualification of MLAs who defy his fiat, and the Speaker could approve of the same. The battle would then move towards the Raj Bhavan and the courts.