Three activities of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the last few days in Chennai show how important the state of Tamil Nadu is in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Tamil Nadu is one of the key swing states on the political map of the country. Which is why, a jittery Modi has devoted much attention to one of the southernmost tips of the country.

The first was ostensibly to felicitate the Daily Thanthi newspaper which has completed 75 years. The organisers had invited Rajinikanth, and some of the estranged NDA allies like Vaiko of the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi. While Modi delivered a lecture on what makes a free press, he used the occasion to ask the media to support the government in all its good endeavours.  Over the last one month, various sections of the media have exposed the ill-effects of demonetisation and GST, and the crippling effect they had on the economy. Even the diluted numbers put out by the Central government’s various agencies including the RBI have shown a red card, and despite the efforts of the blow-your-own trumpet brigade, the media has sent out warning signals. Modi used the Daily Thanthi platform to seek media support for his beleaguered government.

Modi also briefly met Rajinikanth at the function, and the actor’s fans hope that he would announce the launch of a new political party on his birthday in December. BJP also hopes that Rajinikanth would have some sort of alliance with it even if he does not join the saffron brigade.

The second important activity was Modi visiting ailing DMK President, M. Karunanidhi, at his residence, where he also met with MK’s family, particularly his son M K Stalin and daughter Kanimozhi. BJP considers this as the first move of the BJP to reach out to the DMK as part of its multi-pronged strategy for Tamil Nadu. While the BJP’s Plan A was to tie up with a more than willing AIADMK, it is worried about the poor rating of the AIADMK in almost all opinion polls even after the merger of the O Panneerselvam group with the chief minister Palaniswami faction. Therefore, BJP has unfolded Plan B, which is to make a Nitish Kumar out of Karunanidhi – break its alliance with the Congress and win him over to the NDA. If this does not work, Plan C will be put in place, to ‘convince’ the DMK to break ties with the Congress, and look for a post-poll scenario to form the government with the help of new allies like the DMK.

The third important development in the city in the last few days has been the punitive raids launched by the Income Tax department exclusively targeting the family of VK Sasikala, which has been posing a serious threat to the stability and future of the AIADMK government headed by Palaniswami.

The unthinkable has happened. Offices of Jaya TV and Namadhu MGR, the erstwhile party organ, were raided as also the residences of its officials, other relatives of Sasikala nephew T T V Dinakaran, in the garb of post-demonetisation drive. This has not cut much ice with the opposition which has been quick to point out that there has been no follow-up action after the raids against corporate big-wigs like Sekhar Reddy, despite seizure of a large number of new notes, and the raids against former chief secretary Ramamohan Rao, or the Election Commission finding that Rs 89 crore had been spent by ministers in the RK Nagar constituency by-election campaign (based on IT raids at the residence of a minister in Chennai). It may be recalled that the AIADMK’s ruling group had, in a resolution, warned Jaya TV and Namadhu MGR owners that they would face punitive action if they did not hand over these organisations to the EPS-OPS group.

Over 160 places had been searched including the office of  Jaya TV, once considered a seat of power as it was launched by Jayalalithaa. What a fall for a mighty organisation during its own government’s term in power! Such a major operation, directed against the residences and offices of the Sasikala-Dinakaran family which still has the backing of several MPs and 18 MLAs, could not have taken place without the approval or knowledge of the PMO, barely two days after the PM’s visit to the city.

Apparently, the top brass of the BJP in Delhi want Dinakaran to give up his efforts to topple the Palaniswami government. Palaniswami, Panneerselvam and co have been given the message that the BJP can be considered an ally only if the AIADMK is united. Dinakaran has been given the message that he must give up the rebellious efforts to rock the boat, and be with the parent organisation. The dominant EPS-OPS group of the AIADMK is banking on Modi for its very survival.

In this air of uncertainty, the DMK is the only party that has kept its flock together. However, all political calculations can go for a toss once Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth launch their new parties. MGR, when he floated the AIADMK in 1972, took away a section of the DMK and Congress votes and also created a new vote bank. The DMK is worried that something similar could happen through this double blow to the existing parties.

While BJP will hope that Rajinikanth would ultimately have an alliance with the saffron party, it is not sure about Kamal’s plans. The suspicion is that he could go with the Left but then the Communist parties, now with the DMK, are weak on their own. Will Kamal Haasan create a new front with the Left and other non-BJP and non-Congress parties? Or will he have an alliance with the DMK and the Left parties? These are imponderables. DMK’s working president, M K Stalin, doesn’t want to take chances. He will embark on a state-wide tour shortly so as to prevent an exodus from his party or front to the Kamal Haasan/Rajinikanth  outfits.

In that sense, Tamil Nadu is at the political crossroads. Parties may break and seek new identities. Alliances may be broken and re-woven. New outfits will seek a wider ambit. Various permutations and combinations will be in the air. In this atmosphere of political fragmentation, the conflicting hopes and aspirations of new entrants will queer the pitch for established players.

The traditional clash between the DMK and the AIADMK will be a replaced by a multiparty fight that could throw up surprising results. In a scenario where victory is decided as per the first-past-the-post principle, some parties could do well without winning enough seats but could do substantial damage to others.

The question that Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth will face is that will film-world glamour and image-building be enough. Rajinikanth has already said in the presence of Kamal Haasan that film world glamour would not be enough. He referred to Sivaji Ganesan meeting his Waterloo in the political world despite a strong film image and a fans’ base.

The two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, find themselves organisationally weak, and not in a position to take on the Dravidian parties. They may have to continue the policy of finding a suitable partner again.

One thing is clear. The nexus between the film world and politics in Tamil Nadu, which seemed to exit with the demise of Jayalalithaa, has made a comeback, and will stay for at least a few years.