It may be out of political compulsion, but BSP supremo Mayawati has bartered a better “political deal” with bitter rival Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh.

“Bua” (as SP chief Akhilesh Yadav calls her fondly) pocketed the tenth Rajya Sabha seat for the BSP in lieu of her party’s support to the SP in the Lok Sabha by-polls on two seats and its candidate in the UP Council.

The two Lok Sabha seats in UP were vacated by chief minister Yogi Adityanath and deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya from Gorakhpur and Phulpur, respectively. The BSP usually does not contest by-polls. This time also, Mayawati did not field any candidate.  But she chalked out a strategy to test the political waters in UP ahead of the crucial 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

For the first time, she allowed the BSP’s second-rung leadership to negotiate with the SP. The deal was for a Rajya Sabha berth for BSP’s support to SP candidates in the Lok Sabha by-polls and UP Council polls. Senior BSP leader Lalji Verma and Leader of Opposition Ram Govind Chowdhary held several rounds of talks in the last ten days to work out modalities.

Unconfirmed sources, however, claimed Akhilesh had briefly met Mayawati in Delhi to end the 23-year deadlock between the two political rivals in the state. The two parties had entered into an alliance in 1992 and won the 1993 Assembly polls to form the SP-BSP coalition government, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh’s father.

But the bonhomie between the two parties did not last. The “guest house incident”, in which Mayawati was holed up in a room and her party MLAs were attacked and abducted by SP goons after her party withdrew support to the Mulayam government on June 2, 1995, created a permanent schism between the two parties.

The BSP had also entered into a seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress in the 1996 Assembly polls. But it did not make any political gains.

In politics, Mayawati is known for her unconventional methods and for springing surprises. She became UP chief minister thrice, with support from the upper-caste dominated BJP. In 1997, she played musical chairs with Kalyan Singh in UP’s politics to introduce “rotating chief minister” for six months in the country’s political history.

But since the 2012 Assembly polls, her party’s performance has been nosediving. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP even failed to open its account under the Modi wave. Her party’s decline continued in the 2017 Assembly polls also, when it was restricted to 19 seats. Her Dalit vote-bank got fragmented after the BJP made successful inroads in the last two polls held in the state.

Startled by the BJP’s stupendous surge in the recent elections in the Northeast, a deal was finally struck with the SP a day after the saffron win. The announcement of BSP support to SP candidates on the Phulpur and Allahabad Lok Sabha seats came from the BSP zonal coordinator, Ashok Gautam.

But Mayawati hurriedly issued a statement after the media, particularly electronic media, started running stories that the SP and BSP have entered into a political alliance again, which may be extended up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. She clarified that BSP support to the SP was restricted to the by-polls and UP Council polls.

The BSP chief also clarified that she has asked the party cadre to support SP candidates in the by-polls to defeat the BJP in the two seats, since the BSP has not fielded any candidate. She even said her party members will not share the dais with the SP or campaign for them except for issuing an appeal in their favour.

As of now, Mayawati has nothing to lose but only to gain politically. Since the BSP is not contesting the by-polls, she has managed to check her party’s voters going to a non-BJP party. She also wrested a Rajya Sabha berth, since with 19 seats she was not in a position to send anyone to the Upper House.

It would be interesting to watch if she chooses to contest the Rajya Sabha polls after her dramatic resignation from the Upper House last year, or sends her bother Anand Kumar or some other party leader to the berth. With 19 votes of the BSP and 12 extra votes of the SP, she will have to manage 7 votes of the Congress also to ensure victory of the BSP candidate.

“She is unpredictable and a tough bargainer. She does not easily trust anyone. Going by her insecure nature, Mayawati will never allow BSP to be part of any coalition where she is not on the driving seat. In the given circumstances, a SP-BSP-Congress alliance against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh for the 2019 polls seems a far-fetched idea as of now,” pointed out KK Gautam, former BSP finance minister and once confidante of Behenji.

Though Adityanath has claimed the new political equations will have no impact on the prospects of his party’s candidates on the two by-polls seats, the BJP is taking no chances and has stepped up its campaign in Gorakhpur and Phulpur.

The mood is upbeat in the SP camp as the BSP’s support has come as a shot in the arm for Akhilesh, who was desperately trying for opposition unity. The SP now hopes to wrest at least one seat from the BJP to extend the alliance with the BSP for 2019.