It was past nine at night. Over 2,500 people had gathered at the Atala Islamia College Chauraha of Allahabad to attend this election rally. The chairs were full; hundreds were standing near and around the stage, and in the nearby lanes to listen to the speeches being made. And more importantly, to catch a glimpse of the 19-year-old sitting on the stage.

He is Umar Atiq Ahmed, son of Uttar Pradesh strongman, former Phulpur MP and five-time legislator from Allahabad West, Atiq Ahmed. He is also a former Samajwadi Party leader, now contesting the Phulpur bypoll as an independent candidate – from Deoria jail.

Umar Atiq Ahmed gives an under-confident yet aggressive address in Allahabad.

Atiq Ahmed is already giving nightmares to the SP.

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s party has a reason to worry. Despite being in jail, Ahmed’s rallies are proving to be big crowd-pullers. So much so, that barely metres away from the stage at Atala Chauraha, UP Congress chief Raj Babbar’s rally did not have more than 700 people in attendance.

Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has extended its support to the SP for the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls on March 11. The idea is to bring together the votes of the Dalits and OBCs and minority community. It is also believed that in the 2017 Assembly polls, both SP and BSP had played the minority card, dividing Muslim voters. They thus lost poorly to the BJP.

The Phulpur Lok Sabha seat has a sizeable and influential Muslim vote-bank. With the SP-BSP coalition, the two parties are expecting consolidated voting by the minority community in favour of SP candidate Nagendra Singh Patel. But 55-year-old jailbird Ahmed’s entry into the fray is feared to play spoiler for the SP and work in favour of the BJP, the state’s governing party.

“If Ahmed is able to eat into the Muslim vote-bank, then we will win comfortably. Else, there could be a tough contest,” a state BJP leader admitted on the condition of anonymity. “Muslim voters might prove the deciding factor, as we have a strong base in all other communities.”

SP leaders are calling Ahmed a “sarkari candidate (government-backed candidate)”. SP MP from Badaun, Dharmendra Yadav, told Newslaundry: “The BJP is playing these games to divide minority votes.”

SP’s Bhadoi MP Dharmendra Yadav at a rally in Hathgaon.

He emphasised: “Jitna samajwadiyon ne Atiq Ahmed ko badhaya hai, unka sath diya hai, koi aur nahi de sakta (The way we have supported Ahmed, we have stood with him like no one else could have.)”

However, when he took over on stage, not only did Yadav attack the BJP but also tried to write-off Ahmed as a BJP ploy.

Bypolls in Phulpur and Gorakhpur have been necessitated because of the resignation of BJP MPs Keshav Prasad Maurya and Yogi Adityanath. While Adityanath assumed the office of UP chief minister last year, Maurya is his deputy.

In 2014, Maurya had registered a massive victory, garnering 52 per cent vote-share. While the SP and BSP had polled 20 and 17 per cent respectively, the Congress was reduced to a mere 6 per cent vote share.

Phulpur has roughly 19 lakh voters and is constituted by five Vidhan Sabha seats – all won by the BJP in 2017. While OBCs – in which the Yadavs, Patels and Mauryas are dominant – make up the major vote-bank in the seat, Dalits constitute over 15 per cent vote-share. Muslims are believed to be less than 10 per cent but their consolidated voting pattern becomes a game-changer.

Both SP and the BSP understand that this is a preparatory run-up for the 2019 general election. Even the Congress’s pitch is against the BJP. Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee president Babbar, on Wednesday, attacked the BJP over rise in hate crimes against the Muslims.

Interestingly, the SP and BJP have fielded candidates from the Patel community – Nagendra Singh Patel and Kaushalendra Singh Patel, respectively – while the Congress has given the ticket to a Brahmin, Manish Mishra for the bypolls.

Recently inducted into the Congress and a big political face in UP, Naseemuddin Siddique appealed to Muslim voters in Atala to “return to the Congress. Ever since we stopped voting for the Congress these communal forces have become stronger. Our situation in the country has become even worse”.

Meanwhile, Ahmed’s campaign is less against the BJP and rather ups the ante against the SP and particularly Akhilesh. It seems like Ahmed’s family had announced a war against the Yadav scion – and the Phulpur bypoll is an attempt to damage Akhilesh’s political prospects.

Despite facing over 40 criminal charges, such as murder, attempt to murder, assault and criminal intimidation, Ahmed remains popular among the Muslim voters. He was jailed in 2016 after he allegedly assaulted faculty members at an Allahabad agricultural institute.

His wife, Shaista Parveen, appealed to the voters on Wednesday night, asking them to “crush Akhilesh’s arrogance by defeating the SP in the bypoll”. Parveen’s was an emotional speech, heard by thousands in pin-drop silence.

The crowd listens to Ahmed’s kin in pin-drop silence.

She said: “He was jailed under the Akhilesh Yadav government, bail in earlier cases was rejected during Akhilesh Yadav’s government, the licences of his weapons were cancelled during Akhilesh Yadav’s government.” According to the family, Ahmed gave everything for “samajwadis to fight for his aqliyat (community)” but in return he was abandoned by “arrogant Akhilesh”.

Umar, in his under-confident yet aggressive address, said: “SP leaders are fear-mongering in the name of the BJP. They are claiming to defeat the BJP but in reality, they are bound for defeat…” Taking a pot-shot at both the BJP and secular forces, he said: “A secular mafia is far better than a communal leader.”

Whether these emotive speeches will transform into votes or not is to be seen, but they are bound to dent the SP’s prospects. Ahmed enjoys support in pockets such as Atala, Mau Aima, Gaddopur, Nawabganj – which have strong Muslim presence.

Faiz Gauhar, a 26-year-old resident of Atala, told Newslaundry: “There are cases and allegations against every leader. Atiq Ahmed is the only leader from our community who is powerful enough to represent us.”

Another supporter, Zaid Ansari, said “the Muslim vote-bank is set to get divided. And the credit should be given to the BJP – as it will benefit them.” In Ahmed, his supporters see a “rehnuma”. Despite realising that any dent in the community vote-bank will make the BJP’s win easier, they are lining up behind the slogan of “Pehle Bhai, Phir Sapai (First Atiq, then SP).”