“Yogiji ki seat hai, koi le jaega ka? Unki naaq ka mamla hai. CM hokar bhi har jagah jansabha kar rahe hain. Woh ladein, chahe koi aur ko ladaein, unki naaq bachane ke liye pura Gorakhpur khada hai (This is  Yogiji’s seat. Who can displace him? It’s a matter of his reputation. Despite being the CM, he is holding one public meeting after another. Whether he contests or he gets someone else to contest, entire Gorakhpur will support him),” says 24-year-old Vinay Madhisia barely an hour after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressed the final pre-poll gathering in the recently declared township of Gorakhpur-Unwal.

As he packs a box of sweets for a Muslim customer, Madhisia says he is a die-hard Yogi fan. When Haidar Ali, a resident of Unwal, interrupts him, saying Muslims will back the Samajwadi Party, Madhisia scowls: “Listen, this is Yogiji’s seat. Our slogan is: Gorakhpur mein rehna hai toh Yogi-Yogi kehna hoga (If you want to live in Gorakhpur, you will have to support Yogi).”

A few kilometres away, on the margins of Sangrampur village—which has over 10,000 voters—R Khanna Nishad says he will vote for Praveen Kumar Nishad, the son of the Nishad Party founder, who the SP has pitted against BJP’s Upendra Shukla. “Nishad Nishad par jaega bhai.Chahe maar jaen, chahe kat jaen, vote to Nishad ko hi denge (The Nishads will vote for a Nishad, no matter what).” 

Such sentiments are expected to dictate voting patterns in the Gorakhpur by-polls on Sunday. Also up for grabs is the seat of Phulpur which also goes to polls on the same day. While Gorakhpur LS seat was vacated by Adityanath after his anointment as the chief minister, Phulpur fell vacant after Keshav Prasad Maurya was appointed deputy CM.     

The reputation of Yogi Adityanath, who won five straight Lok Sabha contests from Gorakhpur before becoming the CM, rests on the outcome of both seats, especially Gorakhpur, which has remained in firm control of the Gorakhnath Math since Mahant Avaidyanath’s, Yogi’s guru, victory from the seat in 1989.  

The Gorakhpur Math

Here’s the Gorakhpur roundup. There are 10 candidates in the electoral fray. While the BJP and the SP are locked in a direct fight, the Congress has fielded a Muslim candidate, hoping to gnaw at the minority vote. 

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has already tightened the noose by cleverly fielding a Nishad candidate—3.5 lakh of the constituency’s 19 lakh voters are Nishads while Yadavs, Dalits and Muslims add up to 6.25 lakh voters. The move is part of an attempt to consolidate more than 50 per cent of the electorate in its favour. The Nishads are known to be aggressive in their support for a candidate from within the community and the Yadavs form the SP’s core vote base. Thanks to an understanding with the BSP, a chunk of the Dalit vote is also likely to go SP’s way. In such a scenario, all eyes will be on Congress’s Surhita Chatterjee Kareem and to what extent she dents SP’s prospects.

Besides the BSP’s support, smaller parties such as Peace Party, which has a strong Muslim voter base, the Nishad Party and the Communist parties are also backing the SP in a bid to dethrone the BJP from the Yogi citadel.

While the SP seems to be ahead in the game of numbers but, remember, Gorakhpur has been Yogi’s fortress for a reason. For the past several Lok Sabha polls, Yogi Adityanath has won by big margins on the basis of the lead he scores from the Gorakhpur urban constituency area.

In the 2014 polls, Adityanath secured 5.39 lakh votes, winning by a margin of 3.13 lakh votes. While SP’s Rajmati (a Nishad candidate) could secure only 2.26 lakh votes, Ram Bhuval of the BSP garnered 1.76 lakh votes. Adityanath trampled SP and BSP together by over 1.39 votes.

Behind the BJP candidate stands the entire workforce of the UP unit. With several caste leaders campaigning in Gorakhpur, it doesn’t want to take last minute risks. The CM himself has camped in Gorakhnath Math until the polling day. 

When asked about the caste polarisation against him, Shukla told Newslaundry: “The development projects introduced by Yogiji and the BJP and with the support of our workers, we will ensure a grand victory. Despite attempts of polarisation, our supporters from all castes will vote for us.”

Even though Shukla has served the BJP for the past 37 years, he has a history with Yogi. In 2006, when denied ticket by the BJP, Shukla contested Gorakhpur’s Kauriram by-poll as an independent candidate. He eventually ended up ensuring a defeat for BJP candidate and Adityanath loyalist Shital Pandey. But Shukla and Adityanath have buried the hatchet and are working together now.

The CM has addressed 16 public meetings in Gorakhpur, four of which were held on the last day of campaigning. The last pre-election address was held at Unwal town—a Nishad-dominated area and part of the Sahjanwa Assembly seat from where BJP’s Uma Shankar Nishad was elected chairman of the local body in the recently concluded local body polls.

Targeting the SP at the meeting, Adityanath said, “Samajwadi Party had to import a candidate in Gorakhpur [Praveen Kumar Nishad] and Phulpur.” 

He added: “Jab isse bhi nahi ho saka, toh haathi ko cycle ki sawari kara di (When nothing helped, they forged an alliance with the BSP. Will the cycle [SP’s symbol] be able to carry the weight of the elephant [BSP’s symbol])?”

Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath addressing election gathering in Gorakhpur’s Pipraich Assembly in favour of Upendra Shukla (Credit: FB/MYogiAdityanath)

The CM also courted controversy by invoking Aurangzeb to denounce Akhilesh Yadav. “The voters have already decided that they want development and law and order,” he said. “People don’t want Aurangzeb’s rule in the state.”  

Meanwhile, SP leaders rubbished the allegations of “importing a candidate”. SP’s Nishad leader, who had contested from Pipraich seat of Gorakhpur, Amrendra Nishad, said, “Making Praveen Nishad (son of Nishad Party’s chief) join the party and fielding him as our candidate was part of a larger strategy. Nishad votes in this constituency are crucial. While Ram Bhuvalji [who switched from the BSP to the BJP and finally joined SP] and I are putting our efforts to bring together the community votes, Praveen’s candidature will ensure consolidated voting from Nishad community.” He claimed that the Nishads, the Yadavs, the Muslim and the Dalits are getting “polarised in our favour”. “This is a critical time for the BJP and Yogi Adityanath,” he said.

No BSP leader was seen sharing stage with Akhilesh Yadav during his only pre-poll rally in Gorakhpur (Image Credit: FB/Akhilesh Yadav)

On the ground, especially in the Muslim and Yadav dominated areas of rural and urban Gorakhpur, the situation seems to favour the SP. If Samajwadis are able to trounce the BJP in Nishad-dominated areas of Pipraich, Campierganj and Sahjanwa, the fight will truly come alive. 

In the urban areas, BJP continues to remain stronger. In Muslim-dominated areas of Gorakhnath temple, voters see Adityanath vulnerable this time. “Even though no one can defeat Baba (Adityanath), it looks he has a tough fight on his hands for the first time. I have never imagined a close fight such as this one was possible in my lifetime,” said 28-year-old Khurshid Ahmad, a resident of Rasoolpur, a locality adjoining the temple area.

Even though Adityanath has appealed his voters to increase the victory margin in the by-poll, the fact that he himself is not contesting the polls is bound to have some impact. Also, because Shukla is not from the math, this poll is largely not being associated with the reputation of the Gorakhnath temple – which normally triggers polarisation of the Hindu vote bank.

But a reverse polarisation may well be underway among the BJP supporters and upper caste voters too. The united front of the opposition has rung the alarm bell. Rahul Tripathi and Narendra Dubey of Sehjan Assembly, for instance, travelled many kilometres just to follow Yogi on the last day of campaigning. They said, “The opposition parties have come together because they believe the BJP and Baba are standing solidly like a mountain. If they try to dismantle it, Baba supporters are standing united too.”

If the BJP manages to win the polls – despite all odds – it will be business as usual. Gorakhpur will remain Yogi-land. But if Samajwadis clinch it, which remains a mammoth task, it will leave Adityanath embarrassed and the BJP red-faced.