Hi All,

Last time I wrote a letter (Hafta 163), Abhinandan did not read it (but published it on site) as I had made some controversial comments on Gandhi’s conservative nature and the mail was more than the prescribed 200 words. But I will keep this short!

A few suggestions and a few answers below.

1) Happy to hear that Manisha mentioned that Infralive did the ICICI story 2 years ago. Can you get the editor or the author of the article to Hafta?

By the way, you will have to subscribe to read…All puns intended. I had written a letter to you guys before Nirav Modi happened to do a story on banks…If only you had listened, you would have broken the story earlier than The Indian Express…sigh!

2) Cambridge Analytica – I saw the 4-hour deposition of Christopher Wylie. I think you guys should do as well. You will then realise what exactly they did. Since you guys kept saying CA CA …… I was sure you had not seen the deposition else you would know CA is just a front name. And it’s all SCL, pardon me for being presumptuous if you have already watched it.

Please watch between 1:30:00 and 2:00:00, Wylie explains the exact way they do it and how it influences outcomes.

Streaming starts at 19:58. But I did like Abhinandan’s message to Deb, your Hafta 166 subscriber letter. I hope your other subscriber sends us the safe site’s information soon!

3) Now the question about Oil Prices.

Abhinandan your economics degree will help.

Fact 1 – India’s biggest import – Oil

Fact 2 – India’s 2nd biggest Export – Oil products

Fact 3 – Indian Consumer price for oil = Global Price -Subsidies + Taxes

Fact 4 – Oil Export to Import Ratio -0.4

Fiscal Deficit (FD)= Expenditures – Revenue. If FD is negative, it means more money for Govt spending.

So FD from Oil = Import of Oil + Subsidies – Export – Taxes – Sale of Oil.

The above equation should be explanatory, i.e., why increasing the price of oil helps the govt to generate more revenue and the actual global price of oil is more or less inconsequential.

Now look at the 4 facts above, you will get the answers and for the detailed balance sheet, check the links below for the for previous years. Link 1, Link 2

Oh btw if I have crossed 200, most of it is to answer your question, Abhinandan!

Anyway, keep the good work coming. And ya, last time I had asked for an NL Sena project on banks. This time, I leave it to you.

Best Regards,

Dhiraj

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Hi NL team

When you last discussed fuel prices in Hafta 166, you did not mention why the government taxes didn’t go down when crude prices went down. The Central government closely tracks fiscal deficit metric as a key economic metric to track the financial health of India. To reduce fiscal deficit, you either have to spend less or earn more. GST collection by the government hasn’t yet picked up lingering around 80,000-90,000 cr/month mark. The direct tax collections have gone up but so has government expenditure, especially in the rural part of the economy (at least in the books). With capital markets closely tracking the fiscal deficit metric, the government does not have a lot of incentive to put fuel under GST as fuel is their cash cow.

The reason I make this comment is that you should provide this kind of information as well when you guys discuss economy-related issues. Also, it will be nice to have one economist in your podcasts, will provide a lot of context to the discussions.

Cheers

Harsh

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Hello team NL,

About the “Fake-news punishing plan” of the government, I’d like to add my own “well-reasoned theory” on it.

The first point, in an earlier podcast it was analysed very well by Mr Abhinandan as to how all the foreign policies are being carried out to send and create a certain picture of Narendra Modi in the eyes of media and people around the world.

Second point, on the day this plan was tweeted out by the IB Minister, Mr Ravish Kumar rightly hinted at in his primetime and questioned the whole thing being “saved by the end of the day by PM” after the backlash of Press Club, since PM Modi is himself following a lot of the usual culprits who spread false propaganda on Twitter, and how he himself gave his first “interview” in a recent spree to a man famous for you know what. He further mentioned, how it could well have only been a response to simply gain popularity by riding a trending word.

The third point – do you think you, The Wire and couple of news channels and newspapers have not done enough in the past 3 years to generate a response from the PM? Wasn’t a similar meeting organised in the Press Club after the murder of journalist Gauri Lankesh, where concerns of the very safety of journalists’ lives were raised? If Narendra Modi cared about the reaction of the journalist fraternity, wouldn’t some action have come overnight in those cases? Thus, the theory that the proposed bill was withdrawn after a large section of media protested can be put to rest.

Overall point –  I know as professional journalists you cannot and do not encourage unfounded conspiracy theories to be publicised, but as viewers and aware citizens, such back-and-forth frenzied interventions between the functioning of a ministry and PMO only reveals an equally unprofessional attitude on the government’s part.  There has been NO COMMUNICATION WHATSOEVER explaining the need for tackling “fake news” debate ever by the government. It was literally the first day that it ever came out that the government actually wants to control this menace. And suddenly 13 of their ministers are tweeting about a supposed fake news bust. There are way too many red flags.

So most probably, it was supposed to be passed just like a demonetisation-esque decision overnight, but was tweeted out beforehand by IB minister, thus leading to an intervention by the PM.

With the kind of a specific individual-centric approach behind every policy by the current government, my theory might very well not be the truth but still deserves to be sent out by me to you because that’s what the government gets when they carry out policies like shady deals.

Keep up the fair discussion!

Present Muftkhor and future Sena member,

Sagar Patwal

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Hi NL Team,

Thanks for discussing my email on the last Hafta.

Being a quintessential Bengali bhadralok who studied at Jadavpur University (maybe the next most seditious University after JNU :D), I would like to address Abhinandan’s question on Bengali culture. Abhinandan, you are right, Bengali bhadraloks are inherently non-violent. To most privileged Bengalis, daily matters like someone bumping your car on the road or any other simple dispute will never incite them to become violent. We will rather have long debates, arguments, verbal jousting or at the most hurl some abuses but that’s where it stops. Yet there is a history of political violence in Bengal, which is also true and I will try to explain the reason.

Look at the freedom struggle. If you see carefully, where did most extremist freedom fighters come from? Khudiram Bose, Surya Sen, Aurobindo Ghose, Jatin Das or even Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose. All of them were in the extremist wing of India’s freedom movement and all of them were Bengalis. What makes Bengali blood boil is ideology and specifically revolution or rebellion against established norms.

See the history of political violence, and you will notice a heavy influence of revolution or rebellion. If you observe, most political parties once they come to power, govern/rule Bengal for a long time, whether it be Congress, CPI(M) or now TMC. Bengalis are happy to let them govern you, to the point where there is a reason to rebel or revolt. Revolutionary mass movements in Bengal turn violent when there is an attempt to crush or silence them. Take Naxal movement, the rise of Left in Bengal, or even the Nandigram agitation in recent times. Bengalis can’t be forced to stand down on matters of ideology. There is a bit of romanticism involved as well, drawing from the glorious past of extremist freedom fighters and also the heavy influence of communism, with a lot of Bengalis idolising Che, Fidel Castro even today. I think broadly this is why Bengalis become violent at times. It is rarely personal but it’s more based on ideology and a revolution against a stratum of society. I would encourage you to watch the movie “Pratidwandi” by Satyajit Ray which sheds more light on this.

However, one thing saddens me today. Ram Navami was never an issue in Bengal. Bengalis never fought on the basis of religion and I can vouch for it going back to my father’s or even grandfather’s generation. This is something new and toxic being brought into Bengal by the BJP which I hope and pray doesn’t work.

Regards,

Deb