The talk of alternative political alignments is in the air. With the BJP failing on most fronts and moving more towards aggressive Hindutva, all anti-BJP forces and even some erstwhile BJP leaders and allies are scouting for alternative formations to take on the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine.

Sadly, all such talk is restricted to possible collaborations between parties and top leaders. There is hardly any discussion about alternative politics or an alternative vision for India. 

Why search for an alternative at all?

The current governing dispensation is on the backfoot, and understandably so, with GDP down 2 per cent after demonetisation, fuel prices highest in the decade (Rs 80 or more per litre), unemployment shooting through the roof (72 lakh jobs created against the promise of 10 crore in five years by the Modi government), and most campuses up in protests against the BJP and its students’ affiliate ABVP (which lost elections in JNU, DU, HCU and the universities of Patna, Lucknow, Allahabad, Mumbai, and many more).

Also, the pre-demonetisation quantum of cash is back in the economy, there is no visible control of black money or terrorism, cross–border violence is at the decade’s highest, and Hindu-Muslim and Dalit conflicts are rising.

The talk of an alternative combination is loud in spite of the BJP governing 21 states, whether from the front door or back. The general elections are exactly a year away (unless the dates are advanced by PM Modi).

What alternatives?

Congress, with its United Progressive Alliance partners, is the first among the natural choices. But a national party with just 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha and governing only three states, of which one goes to the polls in less than a fortnight, is not in any bargaining position. This could change if the Congress wins Karnataka handsomely and scrapes through in at least two of the three states – MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – that go to the polls subsequently. Although much of this is speculation, a Congress resurgence is not impossible.

The second alternative could well be a federal front led by TMC’s Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal. Banerjee is ready and willing to lead a front comprising every non-BJP party, including the Congress, as long as Rahul Gandhi, who is junior to several other opposition leaders, doesn’t insist on becoming the face of such an alliance.

The third alternative is a People’s Front led by Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, who believes in a united opposition alliance minus the Congress since most states on his radar have Congress as the primary opposition.

What’s wrong with them?

The problem with all three alternatives is that each one is only a combination of parties and leaders and not an alliance of ideas or an alternative vision of governance. They want to stop a seemingly larger-than-life Narendra Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah’s phenomenal election machinery of lies and half-truths by any means. They understand that a second term for Modi will end their political careers.

But a power-driven alternative based on multiple smaller and, at times, conflicting identities cannot fight another power-driven ruling force, which is based on the one over-arching identity, of Hindutva.

An alternative has to be an alternative in substance and not restricted to simply pedalling old content in a new bottle. If that isn’t the case, then Modi’s natural positioning will be: “Everyone wants Modi out, but I want corruption out and development in.” The media will build a narrative of one tall, honest leader versus a bunch of dishonest dwarfs wanting to drag India down again. The opposition will lose the fight even before the game begins.  

Yesterday’s failures

As a parallel, let us consider the decline and rise of Indira Gandhi. A severe anti-Emergency backlash led a motley group of united opposition forces to rise up. She bit political dust despite trying to portray the 1977 general elections as “me versus them” and declaring “They want Indira out, I want poverty out”. Modi is likely to try the same tactics.

Indira did not have mastery in controlling the media. She did not have an army of fake social media warriors – Emergency, in perception and practice, was far more openly anti-people, and, hence, she was defeated. But Modi is stronger. 

The then motley opposition formed the Janata Party. It was home to leaders of conflicting ideologies -from Left, Right and Centre and some with no real ideology at all. The Janata Party broke up in less than 30 months when questions of leadership, policies and benefits to various pressure groups and regions began to surface. 

In this failure of the ‘united’ opposition against Indira Gandhi, ironically, lies Modi’s biggest hope for 2019.

Uphold the Constitution

The alternative force is, hence, not just of parties, although that is the visible face. It is of an alternative worldview, of a common minimum programme, and of an alternative approach to governance. And what can such a thing possibly be that can stand strong in front of the Modi-Shah machinery?

First, pledge to protect the Indian Constitution and its basic tenets. So, commit to true secularism, in which the state does not negate any faith but also does not become party to any faith. Not Hindutva, neither Muslim appeasement. 

State patronage to all religious boards, majority or minority, must end. Soft Hindutva cannot fight aggressive Hindutva as both feed on the same communal bent of mind. Hence, the Congress and Mamata are both on the wrong road here. Pledge to uphold our sovereignty, and hence respect rights of other smaller neighbours, but also protect geo-political interests (the NDA has fumbled in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Burma, Maldives and with Pakistan and China on several occasions in the last four years). 

Pledge to uphold a socialistic welfare economy because the marginalised people, with their per capita income far below the subsistence level, cannot survive unless supported with minimum access to food, clothing, housing, public health and minimum assured education. 

Pledge to protect democracy and leave media, entertainment, culture and education to be run not by bureaucrats but by professional experts. Polemics is good in these. And, above all, pledge to protect legislatures by not short-circuiting their sessions, and protect the independence of the judiciary by not interfering in their recruitment, postings, promotions and processes. 

Safeguarding democracy also needs to be through police reforms, administrative reforms, judicial reforms, and electoral reforms: all of which have been pending for long, and through an all-out implementation of the institution of the Lokpal, apart from protecting the independence of the constitutional positions (EC, CIC, etc). 

End politics of appeasement

All communities need to be assured that India is theirs, but they need not be appeased too. Hence, alternative policy and measures need to be stated for faster socio-economic assimilation of minorities through reasonable representation of all communities in jobs and education, and of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes in all walks of life. Mere reservation does not ensure a dignified life. If talent with the basic qualifications is not there, reserved seats go vacant for decades as is the case today. 

If forest rights are not given to the tribal users of minor forest produce, and land rights are not given to the tillers, there cannot be visible change in the countryside and no end to Naxalism, which survives in the backdrop of brutal exploitation of the marginalised people. The Sachar Committee report has already shown the plight of destitute Muslims, and many other reports expose how tribals are the most exploited lot in India. 

Social assimilation will need distinct ways and means to empower women, ensure their security in public places, raise conviction levels in cases of assault, and enhance their socio-economic participation. 

Alternative economic vision

Structural changes are needed to achieve a slew of economic measures, including viable minimum support price and implementation of MS Swaminathan recommendations for agriculture, forced but gradual recovery of NPAs (specially from willing defaulters), banking autonomy with SOPs and – with the Reserve Bank of India’s independence ensured – recovering black money from land, jewellery and foreign assets. Encouraging start-ups and digital economy, apart from investments in education and health with tax holidays and other benefits, are crucial. 

This plan should also underline a fair share of funds between the Centre and states, respect for federalism, and execution of a truly one-nation-one tax system through a uniform GST.

The right noise about pollution, sanitation, digital economy, entrepreneurship, mass skilling, infrastructure, public health and housing by the Modi government – often in continuity of earlier UPA policies – needs to be taken to the next level of execution, and beyond slogans. Sensitive issues must be left to an independent judiciary to judge (Ram Mandir, Aadhaar, etc).

Finally, there has to be a development plan in place for each Lok Sabha constituency with specific proposals in the manifesto of the united opposition. The political acumen of such an alternative force will be realised if each constituency is represented by the strongest non-BJP party taking on the BJP on a one-on-one electoral fight. Leadership can be decided later, based on the performance of each party.

Win the battle of perception

Modi stands tall in the battle of perception – claiming ‘There is No Alternative’, appearing as the leader with a 56-inch chest against an army of political dwarfs, an incorruptible man fighting corrupt forces, a united Hindu-led India versus a motley group of casteist and communal forces, etc.

Falling prey to the same narrative, which the compromised media will assiduously promote, will be suicidal for the opposition. 

The only way to combat this is to put forth a qualitatively different narrative. Like NDA sloganeering versus real action plan to achieve the promises made. Or one arrogant dictator versus the grassroots leaders. Or selective pursuit of corruption by the Modi government while all corruption charges against BJP functionaries go unprobed. One religion and an upper caste-dominant narrative versus a united India. Crony capitalism versus an enterprise-led competitive economy. Arrogant elite governance versus consensus-driven governance. A controlling approach versus freedom of expression in media, art and culture, and on campuses. 

The alternative narrative has to be on these lines, exposing the doublespeak and hidden agenda of the Modi-Shah dispensation.

Let a collective leadership of a united opposition, named People’s Federal Alliance (PFA), evolve with a distinct common minimum programme and take India to a more holistic, sensitive, people-centric and development-oriented future. And this front should comprise the entire non-BJP opposition – Congress, Left and regional forces together – agreeing to the common minimum programme. 

Let’s not forget that in 2014 Modi got support from only 31 per cent of India’s electorate.