It’s verdict day for Karnataka. If you don’t know that then you’re obviously living under a rock. For those of us who do live above it and on Twitter and TV and digital news updates, the day has been, umm, a little like this.

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Of course, if you have skin in the game and are a Bharatiya Janata Party supporter, it’s been a little like this. Up until, at least, 2:40 pm to be precise.

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As for Congress peeps, it’s been nerve-racking to say the least.

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Anyway, the point of this post is not to amuse you with cutesie gifs and be all millennial, but to offer a little insight into what’s really happening in the state. By now you’ve heard of several theories on TV news discussions that have touched on various factors — Modi factor, anti-incumbency factor, Lingayat factor, dalit factor and what not factor — and it’s too much to soak in.

Needless to say, it’s too early to even begin an analysis.

So, instead of giving you half-baked gyaan on the trends and wave, we’ll just focus on the single biggest development right now that will go against everything we had assumed about this election.

Kingmaker may be king

Till the morning, it seemed that BJP was set to form the government without the help of Janata Party (Secular). Yes, we fell for that too. But as the BJP dwindled close to the 100 mark from the 112 mark, it seems the Congress and JD(S) will come together to stake claim to power in the state.

Here’s what the math looks like for now.

BJP: 104

Congress: 78

JD(S): 37

So if Congress and JD(S) get together, they’ll be at 115. Eleven more than BJP. More popcorns needed.

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But how did this even happen? Up until about a month ago, Rahul Gandhi was busy attacking JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda, labelling the party the B-team of BJP.

He even said the S in JD(S) stands for Sangh and not secular.

At Chamundeshwari, Congress CM Siddaramaiah was in a bitter contest with GT Deve Gowda of JD(S). Gowda, in fact, said that by running away to Badami, Siddaramaiah had shown he was not the brave and powerful person he claimed to be.

Siddaramaiah and JD(S) are old enemies ever since he ditched the party for Congress because…wait…for…it….dynasty politics. He knew Deve Gowda would only promote his son and that he’d never be able to be CM if he stuck with the party. Anyway, here we are know. Old friends-turned-foes may turn back into friends.

This may come as a surprise to those in the Delhi media, but most journalists in Karnataka were pretty sure that one could never be sure about JD(S) and who it allies with. “It all depends on whoever gives them the best deal,” said one. Another said, “Don’t fall for the drama…you never know, it may just go with Congress after the results depending on the offer.” And what an offer it is: Siddaramaiah has said that HD Kumaraswamy — son of HD Deve Gowda, life does have a strange war of coming full circle — is most welcome to be CM and form the government. JD(S) has sweetly accepted the offer. Of course, BJP chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa is not happy at this but the Congress is only following the BJP’s footsteps — remember Goa and Meghalaya?

The victory streak

Though Exit polls downplayed JD(S), the party seemed to have swept the Mandya district — or the Old Mysore region. This shouldn’t come as a surprise since it is dominated by the Vokkaligas, one of the state’s most socially and politically dominant backward castes. They also form the core voter base of JD(S) because, well, same to same caste. The Mandya district has seven seats — Malavalli, Maddur, Melkote, Mandya, Srirangapatna, Nagamangala and Krishnarajpet — and JD(S) is leading in all of them.

The Mandya belt is considered the state’s agrarian heartland — many farmers are engaged in sugarcane farming and sericulture. When Newslaundry travelled to the region, we met quite a few farmers who spoke lovingly of Kumaraswamy — “Kumaraswamy will do a lot for us. When my cousin committed suicide he gave the family Rs 50,000. He cares about farmers,” said one.

But that is just one region — as the numbers show, JD(S) isn’t exactly a hot favourite across the state. Interestingly, in the run-up to the elections, the party was finding it tough to get attention from the mainstream media, which is why it channeled its energies on social media. One of its social media ninjas told Newslaundry that he isn’t excited about the prospects of a JD(S) and BJP alliance: “The BJP should understand we are one country with different cultures. They are forcing their tried-and-tested formulas of Uttar Pradesh, here in Karnataka. Why? Just because it’s another big state like UP. And so far they have  failed to build a single strong narrative against the Congress government in the state.”

Not just that, resources seemed like a constant struggle. Ramesh Babu, spokesperson for JD(S), told Newslaundry, that his party hasn’t spent more than Rs 1-2 crore on advertisements — the BJP had spend close to Rs 300 crore and Congress Rs 50-60 crore. He said in some constituencies, candidates had placed ads with their own money. “People are aware of the issues and most people are from rural areas, they will not be influenced by their [BJP and Congress’] ads,” he said. We don’t know about that but the JD(S) does seem to be having the last laugh.

There’s one hurdle though. The governor’s office. Vajubhai Rudabhai Vala, the current governor of Karnataka, has denied entry to the Congress delegate hoping to form the government with JD(S). Vala has served as the speaker of the Gujarat Legislative Assembly from 2012 to 2014. He was also a BJP Cabinet minister in the Gujarat government between 1997 and 2012.

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