After Gorakhpur and Phulpur, results in Kairana Lok Sabha and Noorpur Assembly seats have come as a major embarrassment for the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party government in Uttar Pradesh.

The Opposition scored a hat-trick by wresting Kairana Lok Sabha seat where the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Congress-supported Rashtriya Lok Dal candidate Tabassum Hasan defeated BJP candidate Mriganka Singh by a comfortable margin. With Kairana in its pocket, RLD has finally opened its account in the Lok Sabha, four years after losing miserably in 2014 polls.

Interestingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘informal’ campaigning from adjoining Baghpat district just a day before the polling on May 28 failed to boost the prospects for Mriganka Singh, daughter of prominent Gujjar leader, late Hukum Singh.  

The BJP lost the Noorpur Assembly seat (Bijnor district in Western UP), too, suggesting anti-incumbency against the Yogi Adityanath government in just 14 months of its governance. Though it is too early to call it a referendum.

The Saffron Monk and the star BJP campaigner, who enabled the BJP to win many seats in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Karnataka, could not save his own citadel. His leadership will come under severe challenge in days to come.  

In Noorpur, Opposition-supported Samajwadi Party candidate Naim-ul-Hasan wrested the seat from BJP by defeating its candidate Avani Singh, widow of former party MLA Lokendra Singh, by over 6,200 votes.

BJP Deputy Chief Minister Dinesh Sharma shrugged off the defeat saying that by-poll results should not be linked with the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but the outcome has already projected tough days ahead for the governing party.

First, after Gorakhpur and Phulpur where BSP had supported SP candidates, Kairana result should be seen as a ‘near’ or ‘future’ formation of a non-BJP front along with Congress and the RLD ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Though there are many ifs and buts that will decide the final shape of the non-BJP front — which faces many contentious issue including personal ambitions and seat-sharing — smaller political outfits like Nishad Party, Peace Party, Left Parties, Lok Dal and so on have already pledged their support to the front for 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

After gaining three seats in a row, an upbeat, so-called non-BJP front is yearning to queer the saffron pitch in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. If a non-BJP front becomes a reality, the BJP fears facing a major challenge of a direct contest with the front candidates in 2019 much to its disadvantage as it may not reap the benefits of an assured division of Muslim votes, particularly in Western UP.

Second, the BJP’s communal polarisation failed to checkmate the caste calculus in Kairana. From Eastern to Central and now in Western Uttar Pradesh, BJP’s polarisation card seems to have come a full circle after it swept Lok Sabha polls in the state during 2014 elections.

Five years after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, Jats and Muslims joined hands again to vote in favour of Opposition-supported RLD candidate Tabassum Hasan much to the relief of Ajit Singh since the two communities formed his traditional voters. “Ye Jinnah par ganna ki jeet hain [It was victory of sugarcane on Jinnah],” sums up his son Jayant Chowdhary after winning Kairana seat.   

During the polling on May 28, Jats were seen offering ‘pehle aap’ to rozedar Muslim voters to vote first. At many places, Jats had erected tents for rozedar Muslim women and men, and gave them preference to vote ahead of them instead of standing in queues.

In the absence of communal polarisation, caste calculus brought together Jats, Jatavs and OBCs to the advantage of the RLD candidate with consolidation of Muslim votes in its favour owing to a direct contest with the BJP.

Third, a new caste-communal equation will emerge after the formation of a non-BJP front with dalits, OBCs and Muslims voting together. This will pose a serious threat to the BJP. Going by the 2014 poll percentage, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal could manage only 43.20 per cent vote share whereas if poll percentage of non-BJP parties are added up then SP (22.20), BSP (19.60), INC (7.50) and one per cent of RLD and other smaller together form 50.30 per cent vote share.

With anti-incumbency of both Yogi and Modi government against the party, and the threat of a joint non-BJP front, the BJP will have to either change its strategy for 2019 Lok Sabha polls or be ready to face significant losses in Uttar Pradesh.