The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lost the Punjab Assembly polls in March 2015. A month later in Delhi, despite being the governing party in the state, it lost the battle for the civic bodies to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Ever since then, the party has failed to see brighter days. Whether it’s the slugfest with Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal, or the alleged attempt of a coup in Delhi by lawmaker Kapil Mishra, or the Kumar Vishwas chapter—the party witnessed its worst possible days.

However, the AAP successfully mobilised thousands of its supporters to march against the LG and Prime Minister Narendra Modi this month. AAP chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal managed to galvanise the AAP’s cadre on the issue of full statehood. While the June movement was against the LG and the bureaucrats—who were allegedly on partial strike—it was also the AAP’s declaration of war for the Lok Sabha polls. The challenge taken up by five AAP-appointed Lok Sabha prabharis, or in-charges, was to mobilise the cadre for this movement.

Two things are clear from here. The AAP has geared up for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, and the prabharis are probable AAP candidates. Also, Delhi statehood is the larger plank on which the AAP plans to catch the Delhi-wallahs’ imagination in the 2019 general elections.

“The preparations for the Lok Sabha election have already started,” said Sanjay Singh, senior AAP leader and Rajya Sabha MP, to Newslaundry. “The five Lok Sabha prabharis we have appointed are taking meetings in each Assembly constituency till booth-level committees. They are interacting with voters; they have started sitting in the Lok Sabha offices. AAP MLAs and councillors are part of this process too.”

In the 2015 Assembly polls, the AAP got a historic mandate due to its electoral promises, such as electricity at half rate, free water supply, and free WiFi. While they can seek votes based on their performance in sectors such as electricity, water supply, education and healthcare during the next Assembly and civic bodies polls, will these issues appeal to voters in the Lok Sabha polls?

The AAP has already started shaping the narrative for general elections, and the special session of Delhi Assembly to discuss the statehood issue, and the following sit-in-agitation and the protests march were part of this larger narrative.

When asked why Delhi-wallahs will vote for a party which is not even going to form the government at the Centre, Singh said, “Let’s be clear, no party is going to get the full majority in the 2019 general elections. And the parties which are stronger in the states will play a key role in the formation of the government. This is in favour of the states and its people, as they will be able to put pressure on the central government to get development projects.”

The AAP’s entire strategy is based on the hopes that no national party—primarily the BJP and the Congress—will be able to get the majority on their own. In circumstances like this, parties stronger in the state will play a key role in government formation, and hence would be able to barter deals for their respective states. In the case of Delhi, the AAP will barter for the full statehood issue.

“If a government in the Centre is formed with the support of the AAP—and its MPs from Delhi—the first demand that the AAP will put forward is full statehood for Delhi,” Singh said. Speaking of the campaign, he said if the AAP focuses on the statehood issue and seeks all seven seats on this issue, it will be a strong strategy.

He said, “Rozgaar, siksha aur swasthya —ye teen bade kaam Dilli ki purn rajya Sarkar ki jimmedari hogi. Hum apne departments mein Dilli wallho ko naukri de sakte hain. [Providing employment, health and education will be the responsibility of the Delhi government when it becomes a full state.]”

Several attempts to reach AAP Delhi president Gopal Rai were unsuccessful.

In-charges on the ground

Of the seven Lok Sabha seats, the AAP has already appointed in-charges on the five seats. Importantly, four of the five names are big in terms of the AAP’s organisational structure. Former Delhi AAP chief Dilip Pandey, National spokesperson Raghav Chadha, Parliamentary Affairs Committee (PAC) member Atishi Marlena, and PAC ex-officio member Pankaj Gupta are respectively the four in-charges for northeast Delhi, south Delhi, east Delhi and Chandni Chowk constituencies. Former BJP MLA Guggan Singh Ranga is the in-charge for north-west Delhi. Ranga joined the AAP after he wasn’t given a ticket by the BJP in the Bawana bypoll last year.

Like other Lok Sabha in-charges, Marlena, the former advisor to the Department of Education, Delhi government, has held several meetings this past week. She said the AAP is currently holding ward-level meetings, which are likely to get over by the first week of July. Afterwards, the intent is to organise similar meetings at the mandal level, and then at the booth level.

By making these in-charges go through such rigorous processes, the AAP is also making them common or known faces in their constituencies. If they are declared candidates, the familiarity factor might work in their favour, or at least in the constituencies where the BJP doesn’t repeat its sitting MPs.

When asked about the need to rework the organisational structure, Marlena said, “Our party was born through a movement, so we have gradually crystallised into an organisation. There are two upcoming elections: one is the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and soon after is the Vidhan Sabha in 2020. The intention is to step up the organisation before that.”

However, she maintained that these posts are merely organisational posts and should not be interpreted as the candidature.

A senior party leader told this correspondent that the party has already given some targets to the in-charges, and will do so in the near future too. The leader said, “Most likely they are going to be candidates for the Lok Sabha. However, it also depends on their performance as the Lok Sabha in-charges: whether they are able to deliver in organisational terms.” Meanwhile, Singh, too, agreed that they can be termed as probable candidates, but it is for the party and Delhi unit to decide.

Speaking of the targets and agendas being taken up by the Lok Sabha in-charges, AAP leader Pandey said, “The first target given to Lok Sabha prabharis was mobilisation for the June 17 protest march. I think everyone did very well. Now the next task is to gear up for the [Delhi] state session called on July 1[at the Indira Gandhi stadium].” Pandey is the in-charge for the north-east Delhi constituency. He also added that the key responsibility is to build the organisation and spread the word that “for all good governance issues, strengthen the weak areas: booths and places where we are weak.”

Pandey agreed that statehood is going to be one of the key issues in the 2019 polls.

Is there an AAP-Congress alliance in the offing?

The AAP’s prominence in Delhi politics is at the cost of the Congress party; at least that’s what the statistics suggest. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had clinched all seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats, and got over 57 per cent of the vote share. The BJP had polled 35 per cent vote share.

In the 2013 Assembly polls, the AAP not only ousted the Congress from power but reduced it to a party with only 24 per cent vote share. The BJP had polled 33 per cent vote share and won 31 Assembly seats. A year later, in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all seven seats. While the BJP polled over 46 per cent vote share, the AAP got 33 per cent of the vote share. But the Congress was reduced to mere 15 per cent vote share.

2015 had the worst in store for the Congress. In the Assembly polls, the AAP clinched 67 seats and over 54 per cent share. The Congress scored a zero and polled less than 10 per cent. Even though the BJP won only three seats, it was barely able to maintain its vote share, and polled little over 32 per cent.

In short, the BJP’s vote share has remained constant—roughly between 33 and 35 per cent. Even during the mammoth Narendra Modi wave, it managed to get only 46 per cent vote share – less than what Congress Party polled in 2009.

If the AAP and Congress come together in Delhi, they might form a lethal combination against the BJP. There are reports that the AAP is trying to forge an alliance with the Congress. So far, the AAP has appointed only five Lok Sabha in-charges. This has left scope for speculation about the remaining two constituencies.

However, recent developments indicate that an alliance between the AAP and the Congress is highly unlikely. Opposition political parties, or the anti-BJP front, and four chief ministers extended their support to Kejriwal’s sit-in dharna at the LG House. But the Congress chose to attack Kejriwal and his party. The state unit president Ajay Maken remains at odds with the AAP and Kejriwal, further reducing possibilities of any alliance.

“As of now there is no possibility of an alliance with the Congress party in Delhi,” a senior AAP leader told this correspondent. He further added that the Congress was exposed, by choosing to speak like the BJP during the administrative impasse in Delhi. Lok Sabha prabharis also said that the AAP is not going to forge an alliance with the Congress party.