The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) patron, late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, was considered to be an astute politician, who started his political career from scratch. However, at the fag end of a career spanning over 50 years, he was ditched by his own wisdom. He tried to stitch together an alliance, which he himself referred to as an alliance between “the North and South Pole”.

Three-and-half years down the line, Mufti Sayeed’s dream—which his daughter Mehbooba Mufti tried hard to keep together—lies shattered.

It’s said that in politics, timing is important. After the alliance between the PDP and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—called the “unholy alliance”—speculations were ripe that one of the partners would soon make a move to leave the coalition government. This was the move the PDP possibly miscalculated. It was the BJP which moved first, leaving its coalition partner red-faced.

Professor Siddiq Wahid, political commentator and former Vice-Chancellor of Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), said, “The PDP did not miscalculate. Rather, its political intelligence quotient has been near zero for the last three years. So it fell victim to the astonishing vacuum.”

The Congress card

A lot has been said about the Congress joining hands again with the PDP. While the Congress high-command has rejected the claims, the State Pradesh Congress has kept its doors open for an alliance. A Congress meeting is scheduled to be held at Congress headquarters in Srinagar on July 3. The meeting will be chaired by Ghulam Nabi Azad, Congress general secretary and the leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.

Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) Vice President, Ghulam Nabi Monga, told Newslaundry, “Everything is open as of now. Forming government with the PDP will be discussed in the meeting.”

He said the Congress aim is to keep Hindutva forces like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP at bay. “We will check out our options; only then can we decide whether or not to go for an alliance with the PDP,” he said to Newslaundry. “We are in constant touch with Rahuji also, and will wait for instruction from him as well.”    

Both the Congress and the PDP have had bitter experiences in the past. They were the coalition partner ruling J&K from 2003 to 2008. There was an arrangement of a rotational chief minister between the two parties. When Mufti Sayeed completed his three-year term as chief minister, the PDP ditched the Congress and left the coalition, leaving no option with then Congress chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad but to resign.  

Talking about stitching an alliance between the two parties, Wahid said, “The report of the coming of the PDP-Congress together is more of a trial balloon hope on the part of some in the PDP than a practical possibility. Apart from the formal denial by the Congress of such an intent, it also runs counter to common sense that to support a hugely discredited political party adds its baggage to your own.”  

The grand alliance

When the fractured election results came out in the state in 2014, Mufti Sayeed took two or three months before forming an alliance with the right-wing BJP. Parties across the political divide requested Mufti Sayeed to forge a grand alliance to keep the BJP out of the state. However, the senior Mufti did not budge.

The grand alliance between the National Conference, Congress and PDP as of now seems to be a distant dream. National Conference spokesperson Imran Nabi Dar told Newslaundry, “We had given unconditional support to Mufti Sahab in 2014. But he did not take it. It’s them (PDP) who needs to approach us and not vice versa. I don’t think there is scope for the grand alliance in the state this time. No one wants to go with the PDP now.”

He said that the reports of the Congress and PDP joining hands have been planted by the PDP themselves so it, as a party, does not disintegrate.

“They (PDP) plant such stories so that they can keep their flock together,” he said.

As governor’s rule has been imposed in J&K for the fourth time in the last 10 years,  the state seems to be functioning normally, at least on day-to-day governance. On the security front, it’s gone from bad to worse. A Parliament seat in south Kashmir is still vacant, as the government has been unable to hold an election in the past year due to the prevailing security situation.  

Wahid said, “The structural changes in its electoral process—that Delhi attempted to achieve in the last decade and a half—has come back to bite. J&K is now even more unpredictable politically, and Delhi’s only answer is more army.”