Specialist water lawyer of the Supreme Court Mohan Katarki has developed a unique practice in Inter-State Water Law regarding the sharing and allocation of waters between states and to the arbiter in inter-state water disputes. The seasoned water lawyer says Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari’s threatening statements of choking water supply to Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty is yet another boast from the Narendra Modi Government, as it is a “meaningless and empty threat to Pakistan.”

Only a day ago, in the aftermath of a deadly suicide bomber attack last week that killed 40 CRPF jawans on a highway in Jammu, Gadkari declared, in a series of tweets, that the Modi Government had decided to “stop India’s share of water that flowed into Pakistan.” The minister said that the water would instead be diverted “to our people in Jammu and Kashmir, and Punjab.” He also added that the construction of a dam has started at Shahpur-Kandi on the Ravi river, and that the Ujh (a tributary of the Ravi in J&K) project “will store our share of water which used to flow into Pakistan and the balance water will flow from second Ravi-Beas link to provide water to other basin states.”

Now, all this may sound as if Gadkari is echoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fierce retort that those who harbour terrorists will have a big price to pay, however, a closer look at Gadkari’s statements reveal that it’s more rhetoric than a real threat to Pakistan.

In this free-wheeling conversation, Katarki sifts fact from fantasy.

For starters, an official from Gadkari’s ministry has already clarified that the river projects stated by Gadkari are “not a new decision” and that he was only “reiterating” old ones. The Shahpur-Kandi dam project was suspended as early as 2014, following a dispute, not between India and Pakistan, but between J&K and Punjab, and after resolving all thorny issues, construction began in September 2018, monitored by the central government. As for Ujh, the project was cleared in December 2018.

So, what is the Indus Water treaty of 1960, and how does it impact the sharing of water between India and Pakistan? The treaty was brokered by the World Bank where it was decided that India would have control over three rivers: Beas, Ravi and Sutlej on the eastern side, and Pakistan would control the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum on the western side. However, the treaty allows India to construct hydro-power projects on western rivers on run of river technology without affecting the flows to Pakistan.

Katarki says trouble began in 2016, after the Uri attack, a pre-dawn ambush on an Army camp in J&K by four militants, when External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said that India would re-consider the Indus Water Treaty, which meant the Modi Government planned to terminate it. Modi had even thundered that “blood and water cannot flow together.” However, Katari says, it means nothing as the rivers will continue to flow by gravity as there are no dams to stop the water from flowing to Pakistan.

Even India’s threats to stop the flow of rivers allotted to Pakistan by a technical diversion of waters, it is untenable though not technically impossible with sky-rocketing costs, as all of Pakistan’s allotted rivers flow through deep gorges of the Karakoram and Himalayan mountains. It would be financially prohibitive and technically challenging to divert water through tunnels that run through these highest and toughest mountains, say experts.

The Modi Government then shifted the argument, he says, by declaring that the water from the allotted Indian rivers which were going to Pakistan will be stopped and be used exclusively for the country.  It was a jibe at the previous Congress-led government which deliberately or carelessly allowed a free run of the water into the neighbouring country. Gadkari reiterated his threat when he declared a day later that his ministry is working on a report that will detail how to block other water resources from flowing into Pakistan.

However, close scrutiny revealed that nothing of the sort was true. What goes to Pakistan is mainly flood waters that collected on the rim of the basin at the border between the countries on the Punjab side.  In fact, Katarki says that the Modi Government is talking about harnessing the rim waters in eastern rivers. A day after his public outburst, Gadkari reiterated his threat when he declared that his ministry is working on a report that will detail how to block other water resources from flowing into Pakistan. It is the reason why a nonplussed Pakistan has shrugged its shoulders about the new threats and said, in an official statement that “We have neither concern nor objection if India diverts water of its Eastern Rivers and supplies it to its people or uses it for other purposes.”

According to Katarki, if there were friendly relations between the two countries, it could be a win-win situation for both to overcome their impending water crises. Consider this: Out of the 136 MAF of water available to Pakistan from its three rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, Pakistan only uses about 105 to 110 MAF, and the remaining 20 MAF simply flows into the Arabian Sea. This is because the terrain in Pakistan, particularly in the Delta, does not allow for more construction of dams and storages, and the terrain is heavily silted because of the silt flowing from the Himalayan rivers.

If both countries could agree to allow for the diversion of this wasted water by channelling Pakistan’s Chenab water to Ravi, Beas and Sutlej by a tunnel on the Indian side, India could negotiate to keep 3 MAF and allow the flow of 1 MAF to flow into Lahore, which is directly on the opposite side. It could solve the water problems of not just Punjab and Haryana but also Rajasthan; and also the city of Lahore, which is in dire straits today.

Gadkari’s threats are casual, says Katarki, and it’s only because water is an emotive issue on both sides of the border that it is exploited for political ends. In Pakistan, people are already tired of the Kashmir imbroglio told by the government that if Kashmir goes, so does the water coming from the Indus. In India, the Indus water bogey is raised every time there is a terror attack–as if its India’s charity that water goes to Pakistan. The nationalistic chant of “no water for blood” has a vengeful ring to it, which appeals to hyper-nationalist and patriotic votes on the Indian side.