There is more than historical polysemy in the three names used for the same living city, the centre of Hinduism/Sanatan Dharma with its historical Jain, Buddhist linkages of the ancient period, the Turkish-Afghan, Rajput, Maharashtrian traces of the late medieval and early modern era spanning from around the 13th to 19th centuries of the Common Era (CE).

But in late March, the city of three names was abuzz with talk of Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking re-election in the Lok Sabha election in the summer of 2019. Unlike in 2014 when he first contested from Varanasi, Modi is not fighting from Vadodara in Gujarat, his home state, as well. He won from both the constituencies then, retained Varanasi and gave up Vadodara. This time around, he is contesting from Varanasi alone. Was he a little uncertain in 2014 about his victory prospects in Varanasi, and is he confident now that he will not lose?

At Virendra Yadav’s tea stall in Assi Ghat, one end of the five-kilometre-long Ganga in front of the city, supporters and critics of the prime minister spell out their analyses of the political symbolism behind Modi’s decision to contest from Varanasi. It is a political debating club. Yadav, whose family had stayed for 22 generations in Benares—he was part of the Indian wrestling team in 1988—doesn’t contest the victory prospects of Modi in his city. However, like the Samajwadi Party supporter that he is, he doesn’t think the Bharatiya Janata Party will do as well in the state as it did in 2014. He points to the state of the BJP in Delhi, the national capital. When I tell him that it is a triangular contest between the Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress and the BJP—and it is going to be a tough one—he turns to the club members sipping his kulhar tea, and says, “Hear, hear”.  

Talking politics at Virendra Yadav’s tea stall in Assi Ghat.

Speaking in his capacity as a citizen of Varanasi, Ghanshyam Pande, chief manager at State Bank of India, explains the political geography of the city. He says the city is closer to the borders of four states: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Its political importance spreads beyond Uttar Pradesh. He concedes that it is also a centre of Hinduism, and he prefers the term “Sanatan Dharma” when a visiting journalist points out that there is a difference between Hindutva and Hinduism. He reiterates the assumption common to the thinking of the people in the state, that Uttar Pradesh is the natural home of Indian prime ministers.

Ajay Upadhyaya, a self-declared unemployed person who had helped others in getting employment, says Benares has always been the bastion of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. By choosing Varanasi, he says, Modi’s chosen the safest seat in the whole of Uttar Pradesh. There’s tacit criticism in Modi not being bold in moving from Gujarat to Uttar Pradesh, and to Varanasi in particular.

The debate shifts to the demolition preceding the creation of the grand corridor from Lalita Ghat to the Vishwanath temple. When a young Congress supporter says many temples were destroyed in the process, Pande reprimands him. Pande says that’s not a fact—that temples have been spared, and other buildings were razed. He defends the corridor project saying that the number of tourists visiting the city is increasing and it’s necessary to provide facilities to them because the livelihood of Varanasi depends on them.

I meet a Marwari family where three generations spent 55 years in the city. Now, they’re moving out after collecting ₹2 crore compensation offered by the government. Yet money can’t assuage the sadness of leaving their home of decades, they say. At Assi Ghat, a bookshop owner points out that in Kyoto, declared the “sister city” of Varanasi, no old buildings were demolished, and renovation was done around them. Critics say the demolishing of homes where people live is destruction of history—even as they’re fully aware they cannot change the demolition preceding the grand corridor project.

The bookshop owner thinks demonetisation was a “good and bold” decision and suggests that there be periodical demonetisation. He is of the view that the Modi government saved the banking sector and major banks like SBI by making explicit the non-performance assets. “If Modi had not come, the SBI would have gone bankrupt,” he asserts. But he agrees that all is not well with the economy at large.

Pande wagers that Modi will win the election this time with a victory margin of 5.5 lakh compared to his 2014 margin of three lakh and more. Other non-BJP and anti-BJP members of the club, while agreeing that Modi is the sure winner, say that this time around, his victory margin will be less, maybe closer to a margin of  1.5 lakh.

Away from the riverfront, in the slightly genteel Ravindra Puri, Ashish Singh sits in the BJP constituency office. He’s regional secretary of the party and in-charge of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in 15 districts that fall within the Kashi region. Singh is confident that Modi will win without any campaign because his work of five years speaks for itself whereas in 2014, careful preparation and hard work had to be done. “It was difficult the first time because the government had to be changed. There is no competition this time. We will win Amethi this time.” Another office-bearer, Amarnath Awasthi, enters the room and adds, “We have won Amethi”—referring to the plans of Congress president and candidate from Amethi to contest from Wayanad in Kerala.

Singh explains that there is a “shauchalay” (toilet) in every Dalit home, and a large chunk of Dalit votes will come to the BJP. He feels that 20 per cent of Muslim votes will come to the BJP too because the minority community has been a beneficiary of Mudra loans. He’s clear that the Congress poses no challenge but the Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party alliance, also known as the Mahagatbandhan, does.

Singh says that the war room will be ready in a day or two, and all the party workers will get down to work. The concern of the regional party office is to ensure that all the Lok Sabha seats are won, including Amethi. In 2014, the party won 14 seats.

At Virender Yadav’s debating club, even ardent supporters of Modi say the party will not be able to win 73 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats which it had won in 2014, and that this time it will win 40 seats. Sharper critics say the BJP will barely win 25 seats. It’s clear that those who hailed the BJP’s juggernaut in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 as due to the electrifying presence of Modi in Varanasi will now have to revise their views about the impact and reach of the leader’s charisma five years after.