The Lok Sabha Battle in Bihar: Phase 1

In addition to being a verdict on the Modi government at the Centre, the polls would also be the first electoral testing of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's third term in office.

WrittenBy:Anand Vardhan
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As if to bring down the soaring political temperature and April heat, rains lashed southern Bihar’s Magadh region on the last day of campaigning for the first phase of 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed an election rally in Gaya—one of the four constituencies in the region which will be voting in the first phase on Aprill 11. Jamui, Nawada and Aurangabad being the other three. Out of the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar, Magadh region accounts for 10 constituencies.

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In what is evidently a bipolar contest in the state, the battle lines have been drawn between two alliances. The composition of both the alliances has undergone some important changes since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has witnessed the return of Janta Dal (United) to its fold, with Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) being its other two constituents. The NDA has been deserted by Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), which is now part of the rival Mahagatbandhan (Grand Alliance)—a front formed in the run-up to 2015 Assembly polls. With the JD(U)’s departure, the Mahagatbandhan is now spearheaded by the principal Opposition party in the state, Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD), while Congress is playing second fiddle. Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM-S) and Vikashsheel Insan Party (VIP) are other constituent parties of the Mahagatbandhan.

It’s not only the composition but even the accommodative space within the alliance has undergone change—far more flexibility has been shown by both the BJP and the RJD in stepping back from their dominant share in seat allocation and making room for alliance partners. NDA seat sharing formula provided BJP and JD(U) with 17 seats each to contest while LJP will be contesting the remaining six seats. Sensing greater need for alliance consolidation and building a social coalition of caste groups, the BJP even conceded five of the 22 seats it had won in last LS polls to alliance partners.

In the rival alliance, even the RJD, for the first time since its formation in 1997, is contesting on only 20 seats. In fact, the party is effectively in the fray only in 19 seats as it has gifted one seat under its quota to the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) to contest. Congress has got nine seats to fight while RLSP will be fighting on five seats. HAM-S and VIP are contesting on three seats each.

Responding to caste arithmetic—quite evident in Assembly polls of 2015—both alliances have aimed at stitching together an alignment of different caste support groups. In the NDA, while upper castes and the trading community would be expected to tilt towards the BJP, the non-Yadav OBCs like Kurmis and Koeris and Most Backward Classes (MBC) form the Janta Dal (United)’s support base. Meanwhile, the LJP is expected to bring Paswan section of Dalit votes. At the same time, the RJD is expecting to combine its Muslim-Yadav (MY) support base with RLSP’s of Kuswaha vote, HAM-S’s Mahadalit vote and VIP’s Nishad vote. In addition to this, they would hope that Congress manages to get some degree of support from a section of upper castes and Muslims.

The carefully worked out caste configuration of both the alliances indicates that they aren’t in a position to attempt electoral adventurism—a condition which indicates lack of a clinching narrative or wave. This is unlike in 2014 when the NDA bagged 31 seats in the state, largely riding on the Modi wave. Back then, it didn’t even have the JD(U) in its fold. However, the expansion of the social base that the NDA partners brought with them in 2014 did play its role in making the BJP gain support among different caste groups.

This is amply reflected in the post-poll studies that look at the support for key political parties among different sections of voters in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In one such study done by Professor Sanjay Kumar, published first in the journal The Economic and Political Weekly and later in the book Post- Mandal Politics in Bihar: Changing Electoral Patterns (Sage, 2018), there are statistical pointers about the support configuration of three key political parties in the last LS polls.

First, the post-poll study done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) identified the social groups which are most inclined to vote for the BJP-led NDA and RJD in the 2014 polls. While 78 per cent upper castes preferred BJP-led NDA, 64 per cent of Yadavs and the same percentage of Muslims chose RJD-led alliance.

Second, 53 per cent lower OBCs (non-Yadav, non-Kurmi) preferred NDA while only 10 per cent supported the RJD-led bloc. Kurmi-Koeri vote, traditionally a stronghold of the JD(U), wasn’t lopsided. The NDA was favoured by 26 per cent while 30 per cent endorsed the JD(U).

Third, “amongst all Dalit castes, 42 per cent voted for the BJP and its alliance, while only 10 per cent voted for the RJD-Congress alliance and 20 per cent voted for the JD(U) in spite of the ruling party’s efforts towards social and economic development of people belonging to these castes by declaring them as Mahadalits. The BJP was even more successful in mobilising voters from the Paswan caste (Dusadh) within the Dalits due to its alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan. Amongst the Dusadhs, the Dalit caste to which Ram Vilas Paswan himself belongs, 68 per cent voted for the BJP and its allies, while 10 per cent among them voted for the RJD-Congress alliance and only 6 per cent of them voted for the JD(U).” The effect of having an alliance partner like Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP was clear in the NDA’s success in making deep inroads into Dalit vote, particularly Paswan section of it.

The very next year, the post-poll study of 2015 Assembly polls found the realignment of the support’s social base tilting towards the Mahagatbandan allies—RJD, JD(U) and the Congress as it defeated the NDA. CSDS study found that while 84 per cent of upper caste voters continued to prefer the NDA—only 9 per cent of them chose Mahagatbandhan—the support for the Mahagatbandhan among Yadavs was 68 per cent (12 per cent for NDA), 71 per cent among Kurmis (18 per cent for NDA), 31 per cent among Koeris (28 per cent for NDA), 35 per cent among other OBCs (43 per cent for NDA), 19 per cent among Paswan Dalits (54 per cent for NDA), 25 per cent among Mahadalits (30 per cent for NDA) and 69 per cent among Muslims (6 per cent for Muslims).

As the JD(U) walked out of the alliance in 2017 and returned to the NDA fold, the 2019 Lok Sabha polls would be interesting to test waters for 2020 Assembly polls—especially how the support configuration of non-Yadav OBC and Dalit is working now. It would have implications for the kind of social coalition both the alliances would try to consolidate before the autumn of 2020. Moreover, in addition to being a verdict on the Modi government at the Centre, the polls would also be the first electoral testing of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s third term in the office—a term marked by some key decisions like the one regarding Prohibition.

While Pulawama and India’s response with Balakot air strikes have already made national security a key campaign theme for the NDA, the Modi government is also seeking support citing its welfare schemes like Ayushmaan Bharat, Ujjawala Yojana and construction of toilets under Swachh Bharat mission. Nitish is also trying to bank on his development plank—the improved electric supply and provision of tap water supply to remote parts, improvement of infrastructure like road construction being the most highlighted ones in his campaign speeches.

As the first leg of the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls kicks off today, here is a lowdown on the four constituencies in Bihar which will see voting  today—all of them were won by the NDA in 2014 but the alliance has new candidates in two of them (Nawada and Gaya) while the sitting Members of Parliament are fighting to retain their seats in two constituencies (Jamui and Aurangabad). Except for Nawada, the remaining three constituencies have Naxalism-affected pockets and witness intermittent incidents of Naxal violence.

Nawada

Voter strength: 18. 92 lakh voters (Female: 9.09 lakh, Male: 9.83 lakh)
Polling booths: 1,899
Assembly segments: Hisua (BJP), Nawada (RJD), Rajauli (RJD) Warsaliganj (BJP) and Gobindpur (Congress).

2014 Lok Sabha polls:
Giriraj Singh (BJP): 3, 90, 248 votes
Raj Ballabh Prasad (RJD): 2,50,091 votes
Kaushal Yadav JD (U): 1, 68, 217 votes
(After 1989, no sitting MP has retained the Nawada seat)

The key contenders in 2019: Chandan Kumar of Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Vibha Devi ( RJD).

In a battle of proxies, Nawada is witnessing a fight between RJD’s Vibha Devi, wife of the former RJD MLA and strongman Raj Ballabh Prasad (in jail for raping a minor girl) and  LJP’s Chandan Kumar, the brother of once dreaded don-turned-politician Suraj Bhan Singh. It is believed that Chandan Kumar was Bhan’s reluctant choice as his wife Veena Devi, sitting LJP MP from Munger, wasn’t ready to contest from Nawada after being denied ticket from Munger. The seat has been in news after its sitting MP and BJP leader Giriraj Singh went public with his unhappiness over being denied a shot at re-election from Nawada and on being shifted to Begusarai.

The NDA allocated the seat to the LJP and the party chose to field a Bhumihar candidate—one of the only three Bhumihar candidates that the NDA has fielded in the state and something that has irked the assertive upper caste group in Bihar.

Nawada, carved out as a separate LS constituency from Gaya in 1976, is known for voting back a sitting MP only once in 1984 and none after 1989. Interestingly, it has elected local candidates only twice in the last 43 years of its existence as LS constituency. So the outsider factor against Chandan Kumar, a native of Mokama, isn’t seen as a disadvantage against Vibha Devi, a local.

There is a perception that Bhumihar-dominated Barbigha assembly segment holds the key to the outcome in the constituency as Veena Devi had lost in 2009 because she couldn’t convince its voters. However, the undetected tilt of Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) could be decisive on the voting day.

The clout of strongmen pushing the two key contenders would work differently as asset and liability with different sections of voters.

Gaya (reserved constituency)

Voter strength: 16, 98, 772 (Female: 819, 405, Male: 879, 308)

Assembly segments: Sherghati, JD(U), Barachatti (RJD),  Bodh Gaya (RJD), Gaya town ( BJP), Wajirganj (Congress) and Belaganj (RJD).

2014 Lok Sabha polls:
Hari Manjhi (BJP) defeated Ramjee Manjhi ( RJD) by 116, 004 votes.

Key contenders:
Jitan Ram Manjhi, HAM-S and Vijay Kumar Manjhi, JD (U).

In a battle of Manjhis in the reserved constituency in Gaya, the NDA seat-sharing deal awarded a BJP stronghold in Lok Sabha to the JD(U). Nitish Kumar has fielded Vijay Kumar Manjhi in his effort to settle the electoral score with the former chief minister and former leader of the party Jitan Ram Manjhi, who now heads HAM-S.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose Gaya to start his campaign in Bihar and so did Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Going by the efforts the JD(U) is putting into the constituency and the nature of Nitish Kumar’s canvassing there, there is a perception that Kumar has made it a prestige contest.

While Jitan Ram Manjhi is banking on his short stints as chief minister and recognisable political standing, Vijay Kumar Manjhi is trying to find footing in a constituency where his candidature as LS contestant came as a surprise to him too. Being a fresh candidate from the NDA,  the anti-incumbency factor could be limited in Vijay’s favour and his low-key presence and recognition deficit may be balanced by the support the BJP has traditionally had in the constituency. JD(U) would need active BJP-cadre mobilisation here.

Jitan Manjhi is banking on Manjhi, Muslim and Yadav votes of the alliance partner, RJD. Even sections of upper caste voters might be favourably inclined to him as he has been an acceptable political presence in Gaya.

Jamui (reserved constituency)

Voter strength: 17 lakh voters (Male: around 9 lakh, Female: 8 lakh)
Polling booths: 1, 263
Assembly segments: Tarapur, JD(U), Sheikhpura JD(U), Sikandra (Congress ), Jamui (RJD), Jhajha (BJP) and Chakai (RJD)

2014 Lok Sabha elections:
Chirag Paswan (LJP): 2, 85, 352 votes
Sudhanshu Kumar Bhaskar (RJD): 1, 99,407
Uday Narayan Chaudhary JD(U): 1,98,599

Key contenders: Chirag Paswan (LJP) and Bhudev Chaudhary (RLSP)

It’s regarded as one of the seats where there seems a decisive edge for the sitting MP Chirag Paswan, son of LJP leader and Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan. Chirag is making it a point in his rallies to communicate to the voters that he chose Jamui over his father’s stronghold Hajipur. The constituency has seen high-profile NDA canvassing with the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar also appealed to the electorate to re-elect Chirag while Rajnath Singh praised Paswan scion as a “24-carat MP”.

It’s a claim that Jamui has a sizeable number of endorsements among voters as Paswan has pushed some road and rail infrastructure projects and is positively seen for his visibility and accessibility in the constituency. However, citizens in the urban Jamui have their share of grievances against the MP, primarily because of indifference to sanitation work, sewage problems and dangerous electrical wiring causing regular accidents.

His rival Bhudev Chaudhary, 2009 MP from the seat, has disappeared from the 2014 contest and is also seen as inaccessible. Though enjoying dispersed support across pockets, Bhudev hasn’t consolidated a strong support base. One such group could be EBCs which hasn’t shown any particular tilt towards the LJP candidate but RLSP has also not managed to make inroads into the caste groups comprising the undecided chunk of voters.

Aurangabad
Voter strength: 17 lakh
Polling booth: 1, 965
Assembly segments: Kutumba (Congress), Aurangabad (Congress), Rafiganj (JD(U)), Imamganj, (HAM ( S)), Tikari, (JD(U)) and Gurua (BJP)

2014 Lok Sabha elections:
Sushil Kumar Singh: 3, 07, 941 votes, Nikhil Kumar (Congress): 2, 41, 594 votes, Bagi Kumar Verma JD(U): 1, 36, 137 votes

Key contenders: Sushil Kumar Singh (BJP) and Upendra Prasad (HAM-S)

It’s the only constituency in the first phase where BJP is contesting and not one of its NDA allies. The sitting MP is believed to be holding an edge in the constituency where Rajputs constitute 18 per cent of the votes.; because of being home to the highest concentration of Rajputs in Bihar, Aurangabad is also called Bihar’s Chittorgarh. While sitting MP Sushil Kumar is the NDA’s face in the constituency, Mahagatbandhan ‘s challenge is being led by HAM-S’s Upendra Prasad.

It’s not clear how much support from the allies would be behind Prasad because there has been a lot of anguish among Congress workers over denial of ticket to Nikhil Kumar, former IPS officer who serves as Delhi police commissioner, as his family has been contesting the seat for decades.

Sushil Kumar Singh would be banking on upper caste consolidation, mainly Rajputs as Bhumihars in the constituency may need to be convinced following disenchantment over being underrepresented in the NDA’s ticket allocation. That could be compensated in Aurangabad with the solid backing of Brahmin votes, which was with the Congress but now looks uncertain with HAM-S candidate replacing Nikhil Kumar in the contest.

HAM-S would be hoping for the support of Yadavs and Muslims, give the stronghold of its ally RJD. A timely consolidation of the disgruntled Congress votes can also help his support base. That, however, seems an uphill task now.

Besides eyeing caste mobilisation, Singh is also citing his efforts in making North Koel river irrigation project functional. That’s also a theme which surfaced in BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi and LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan’s campaign in his support. Unless some late consolidation works in Prasad’s favour, Aurangabad seems smooth sailing for Singh.

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