In the second phase of Lok Sabha elections today, Bihar will see voting in five constituencies: Katihar, Kishanganj, Purnia in the Seemanchal region, Bhagalpur in the Kosi region and Banka in the Magadh region. It is essentially a bipolar contest between the candidates of two rival alliances in the state — the National Democratic Alliance ( NDA) and Mahagatbandhan or the Grand Alliance (GA). This phase will see Janta Dal (United),  or JD(U), as the face of the NDA in all five constituencies. According to the agreed seat-sharing formula, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chose to step back and let the ally JD(U) fight all seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP couldn’t win any of these five constituencies. Ironically, the only constituency (Purnia) of these five that JD(U) won in 2014 had seen BJP as the runner-up in the contest. This was when JD(U) wasn’t a part of the NDA.

For the rival GA, the second phase will have Congress contesting on all the three Seemanchal seats — Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnia — while its ally Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has fielded its candidates in Bhagalpur and Banka constituencies.

With a very high percentage of Muslim population in constituencies of the Seemanchal region, the arithmetic in Kishanganj, Katihar and Purnia is demographically different from the social configuration of the electorate in other parts of the state. The competitive attempts at social consolidation of the same voter base as well as forming new permutations can be seen this year too. Bhagalpur and Banka would be closely watched for the voting behaviour trends they may set for the Kosi region and the far south-east part of the Magadh region of the state. However,  generalisations for the region based on certain constituencies is fraught with risks and that has been amply evident in the past.

Watch out for

Kishanganj, a Muslim majority constituency in Seemanchal, presents an interesting three-cornered fight. But, first, let’s get familiar with the basics.

Kishanganj

• 16.5 lakh voters: 8.6 lakh male voters and 7.9 lakh female voters
• 1,626 polling booths
• Assembly segments: Bahadurganj – Congress
  Thakurganj – JD(U)
  Kishanganj – Congress
  Kochadhaman – JD(U)
  Amaour – Congress
  Balsi – RJD
• 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Mohammad Asrarul Haque (Congress) got 4,93,461 votes and defeated Dilip Kumar Jaiswal (BJP) who got 2,98, 849 votes.
• Key contenders in 2019: Syed Mahmood Ashraf of JD(U), Dr Mohammad Jawaid (Congress), Akhtarul Iman (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, AIMIM)

Kishanganj is a Muslim majority constituency with about 70 per cent Muslim voters. Kishanganj district has 67.98 per cent Muslim population, according to the 2011 Census. The consolidation of Muslim votes is key to the electoral success in the constituency and with the exception of 1967, the constituency has been electing Muslim Members of Parliament.

This year, the void left by towering Muslim leaders of Seemanchal like RJD veteran Mohammad Taslimuddin and Congress’ Asrarul Haque, both of whom passed away, has made the field wide-open for a close fight in Kishanganj. Besides Mohammad Jawaid of the Congress and Mahmoood Ashraf of JD(U) making it an NDA-GA contest, the active canvassing of AIMIM Akhtarul Iman has the potential of turning it into a triangular fight.

Given the demographic composition of the constituency, the consolidation of Muslim vote obviously holds the key to the fate of the key contenders. Within the Muslim electorate, the success in getting the support of Soorjapuris Muslims (estimated to be around 5 lakh in the constituency) is considered crucial.

Both JD(U) candidate Ashraf and Congress candidate Jawaid are Soorjapuris and trying hard to win the community’ support, an edge which the late Congress MP Asrarul Haque always had. There is also a considerable presence of Pachima and Shershahbasis communities within the Muslims of the constituency. The JD(U) candidate will have to win their support to neutralise the Congress’ sway over the Soorjapuri community. The Soorjapuris consider themselves original inhabitants of Kishanganj, while the Pachimas are called so because they are supposed to have come from districts to the west of Kishanganj.

In the past few LS elections in Kishanganj, NDA candidates have found it difficult to pose a serious challenge to RJD or Congress candidates, even though BJP leader Shahnawaj Hussain had won the seat in 1999 defeating Seemanchal stalwart Mohammad Tasluddin in a very close contest.

Though Asadudddin Owaisi ‘s AIMIM has been trying hard to extend its political turf to Seemanchal, it hasn’t been successful in making any dent as is evident from the 2015 Assembly polls. Yet the absence of strong contenders in Kishanganj this year can make the party candidate Iman play the role of a ‘vote– cutter’, if not a serious challenger. Owaisi addressed a rally in Imam’s support and sought anti-Modi consolidation in AIMIM’s favour.

If the contest turns triangular and there is significant division in the Muslim vote pattern, the Hindu votes can become important to the outcome of the polls. The JD(U) candidate Ashraf can hope for getting committed votes of its NDA ally, BJP. Meanwhile, the Congress candidate can eye the Yadav votes of its GA ally, RJD. Yadavs have a significant presence among Hindus of the constituency, along with the vaishyas (trading community) and the Dalits.

The talk of a political vacuum in Kishanganj often surfaces following the demise of two anchors of Muslim leadership in the constituency — Md Taslimuddin and Maulana Asrarul Haque. However, the triangular contest in LS polls this year may be important in filling that. 

Being a Muslim majority constituency and considered an important site for influencing political opinion within the Muslim community in the country, it was inevitable that Kishanganj attracted the attention of Hyderabad-based AIMIM, which is seeking to make an electoral foray into a major Hindi heartland state beyond Telangana and some parts of Maharashtra.

AIMIM candidate Iman, once a close aide of Taslimuddin and former member of both RJD and JD(U), is positioning himself as an alternative to both NDA and UPA. Known to have worked hard on developing public contact across Kishanganj constituency in the last five years, it’s still unclear how much support he could bring for AIMIM in a region that hasn’t shown positive electoral outcomes for the Owaisi-led party yet.

After being carved out as a separate constituency for 1957 Lok Sabha elections, Kishanganj was a Congress stronghold for long and it has won the seat seven times, including the 2014 General Elections. However, the seat has also had a history of not voting back an MP more than twice. Even its first MP MD Tahir (Congress) lost to Lakhan Lal of Praja Socialist Party (PSP) in 1967. Besides PSP, the Bharatiya Lok Dal leader Halimuddin Ahmed also won the seat in 1977. Almost two decades later Taslimuddin won it on a Janta Dal ticket in 1996, and when the RJD was formed, he led the party to victory in Kishanganj Lok Sabha polls in 1998 and 2004.

JD(U) candidate Ashraf has been campaigning with the development plank of the Nitish government and the welfare schemes of the Modi government. Besides Soorjapuri Muslim vote, which anyway would be neutralised by Jawaid’s support base in the same group, Ashraf is banking on some visible improvement in infrastructure: roads and electricity for which the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government is claiming the credit.

Here’s a quick look at the rest of the constituencies going up for polls.

Katihar

• 16.5 lakh voters –  8.7 lakh male voters and 7.7 lakh female voters
• 1, 667 polling booths
• Assembly segments: Pranpur (BJP), Kadwa (Congress), Balrampur (CPI-ML) Liberation,  Manihari (Congress), Barari ( RJD).
• 2014 Lok Sabha Polls: Tariq Anwar (Nationalist Congress Party, NCP) defeated Nikhil Kumar Choudhary (BJP)
• Key contenders: Tariq Anwar (Congress) and Dulal Chandra Goswami from JD(U)

Purnia

• 17.5 lakh voters:  9.1 lakh male voters and 8.4 lakh female voters
• Polling Booths: 1,765
• Assembly segments: Kasba, Rupauli, Dhamdaha, Korha and Purnia
• 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Santosh Kushwaha, JD(U), defeated Uday Singh alias Pappu Singh (BJP) by 1.16 lakh votes
• Key contenders: Santosh Kushwaha, JD(U) and Uday Singh alias Pappu Singh (Congress).

Banka

• 15.5 lakh voters: 825,010 male voters and 724,446 female voters
• Assembly segments: Sultanganj JD(U), Amarpur, JD(U) , Dhoraiya ( reserved) – JD(U), Banka (BJP), Katoria (RJD) and Belhar – JD (U).
• 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Jai Prakash Yadav (RJD) defeated Putul Kumari (BJP)
• Key contenders: Jai Prakash Yadav (RJD), Girdhari Yadav JD(U) and Putul Kumari (Independent).

Bhagalpur

• 18.1 lakh voters: 9.5 lakh male voters and 8.5 lakh female voters
• Assembly segments: Gopalpur, Bihpur, Pirpainty, Kahalgaon Bhagalpur and Nathnagar
• 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Sailesh Kumar alias Bullo Mandal (RJD) defeated Syed Shahnawaz Hussain (BJP) by a thin margin of 9,485 votes
• Key contenders: Sailesh Kumar alias Bullo Mandal (RJD) and Ajay Kumar Mandal JD (U)