#Phase3 in Bihar: It’s the battle of the Yadavs in Madhepura

Friends turn foes and foes turn friends to fight the 2019 General Elections in this constituency in the Kosi region.

WrittenBy:Anand Vardhan
Date:
Article image
  • Share this article on whatsapp

The third phase of Lok Sabha polls in Bihar will see voting in five constituencies in the state. These constituencies, Madhepura, Khagaria, Supaul, Jhanjharpur and Araria, are spread across three regions, which are Kosi (Madhepura, Khagaria and Supaul), Mithilanchal (Jhanjharpur) and Seemanchal (Araria). Except Madhepura, which is witnessing a three-way contest, the remaining four constituencies will see a clear bipolar contest between the candidates of two rival alliances – National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Mahagatbandhan (Grand Alliance, GA).

subscription-appeal-image

Support Independent Media

The media must be free and fair, uninfluenced by corporate or state interests. That's why you, the public, need to pay to keep news free.

Contribute

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the key party in the NDA, had won only one seat (Jhanjharpur) among these five in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It has left this seat for its ally, Janta Dal-United (JD-U), to contest this year under the seat-sharing agreement. JD-U is contesting in three of these five seats (Madhepura, Supaul and Jhanjharpur), while Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), another NDA ally, is defending the Khagaria seat it won in 2014. BJP is contesting in Araria, a seat which it failed to defend in 2014 and couldn’t wrest back in the 2018 by-polls either.

GA parties have fielded RJD candidates in three seats (Araria, Jhanjharpur and Madhepura), Congress candidate in one seat (Supaul), while the recently-formed Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) has fielded its candidate in one seat (Khagaria).  

Watch out for the Yadav bastion

  • Total voters : 18,84,216
  • Male voters: 9,74,722
  • Female voters: 9,07,592
  • Assembly Segments: Alamnagar, Madhepura, Sonbarsa, Bihariganj, Saharsa and Mahishi
  • 2014 Lok Sabha Polls: Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav (RJD), later founded his own Jan Adhikar Party Loktantrik, JAP (L). He defeated Sharad Yadav of JD-U by 56, 209 votes.
  • 2019 key contenders: Sharad Yadav(RJD), Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav (JAP-L) and Dinesh Chandra Yadav (JD-U)

Since 2014, Madhepura has seen a shift in political affiliations of the contestants. The bastion of the Yadavs in the Kosi region is poised to witness a three-way fight. Sharad Yadav is in the arena on a ticket from what was once his bête noire, RJD. The sitting Member of Parliament, Pappu Yadav, from the JAP(L) is hoping to retain the seat. JD-U candidate Dinesh Chandra Yadav is providing the third dimension to the contest.

Whatever be the result when the votes are counted on May 23, Madhepura is all set to have one of the Yadavs as their new representative in Lok Sabha. It’s not surprising for a constituency where the numerical strength of Yadavs and the poll maths have sustained the cliché: “Rome mein Pope, Madhepura mein Gope” (As Rome is for the Pope, Madhedupura is for Gope, namely Yadavs). The saying captures the cold fact of demographic dominance of Yadavs in the constituency. The estimates on Yadav population in Madhepura ranges from 3.75 lakh to 5 lakh, followed by Muslims at 2 lakh, Brahmins at 1.75 lakh and Rajputs at 1.10 lakh. Mahadalits account for 1.80 lakh and Dalits about 1.08 lakh voters each. Kurmis account for around 65,000 voters, Baniyas around 1.5 lakh,  Koeris around 60, 000 and Dhanuks around 60,000.

Given this composition, political parties have been relying on support of  Yadav voters to get the decisive edge.

RJD has fielded the four-time MP from Madhepura, Sharad Yadav, who has been a long-time rival of the party and its founder Lalu Prasad Yadav. In fact, Sharad Yadav, who has been contesting parliamentary polls in Madhepura since 1991, even defeated Lalu here in 1999 Lok Sabha polls. Lalu had success against him here in 1998 and 2004 polls.

Having parted his ways with JD(U) and getting disqualified from Rajya Sabha membership with invocation of anti-defection law, Sharad formed his own party Loktantrik Janata Dal, which has been struggling for relevance since. In fact, the party is all set to merge with RJD and Sharad Yadav contesting on its ticket is a strong indicator of such a possibility.

These polls, then, are crucial for Sharad Yadav in his bid to retain relevance, if not survival. Political observers draw the parallel of his situation to that of another JD (U) leader George Fernandes, who faced the danger of fading into political oblivion in 2009.

Sharad Yadav would be locked in a close fight against the sitting MP Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, a strongman whose criminal past has gone parallel with political influence in the Kosi region, as well as Purnia in the Seemanchal region. He first entered Lok Sabha in 1991 by winning the Purnia seat. After 13 years, when Madhepura sitting MP  Lalu Prasad’s resignation necessitated a by-poll, Pappu won the Madhepura seat. He couldn’t contest 2009 polls as he was debarred following conviction in a murder case. However, after an acquittal by the Patna High Court in 2013, he contested and won Madhepura seat in 2014 polls on an RJD ticket defeating Sharad Yadav, who was then with JD(U).

Once considered close to Lalu family, Pappu’s association with the RJD ran into rough weather in 2015 and he was ousted from the party for his alleged anti-party activities. Following his ouster, he floated his own party, Jan Adhikar Party Loktantrik, JAP(L). The party couldn’t make any impact in the 2015 Assembly polls and Pappu has been keen on getting back to RJD-led GA fold since. But RJD leadership ensured that not only was he denied a return to the party, but also that he doesn’t get a ticket from another GA ally Congress.

Pappu’s decision to fight Madhepura Lok Sabha polls on his own had a negative impact on the campaign of his wife and sitting  Congress MP from Supaul, Ranjeet Ranjan. The local unit of RJD, alliance partner, resents not only her candidature but also her failure in convincing her husband against contesting Madhepura seat. The  non-cooperation by RJD workers in her campaign seems to have support from RJD’s top leadership too since RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had recently dubbed both MPs as a “power hungry couple”.

In his campaign, Pappu is projecting Sharad as an outsider, as the RJD candidate is a native of Madhya Pradesh, and himself as a son of soil. To counter the high probability of a divided Yadav vote, he is wooing Brahmin votes, though his legacy in the region is marked by how he mobilised his support base in 1990s around backward-forward polarisation in the region. Known for his accessibility and public contact initiatives, it seems that wouldn’t be enough to win support for him beyond a point.

JD (U) candidate Dinesh Chandra Yadav would be hoping for favourable vote on state government’s infrastructure development programmes and central government’s welfare schemes. Moreover, he would eye the consolidation of  non-Yadav OBC support: a section that has been more inclined towards NDA over the years.

Dinesh, two time Saharsa MP before the delimitation had Saharsa become part of Madhepura constituency, would also be targeting better consolidation in Saharsa and Bihariganj assembly segments. These two segments have seen more support for NDA, unlike Madhepura and Sonbarsa segments which have shown more support for RJD. If that pattern of voting continues this year too, Alamganj and Mahisi can again be decisive segments in swinging the result.

In a campaign against a political friend-turned foe, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been camping in Madhepura for the third phase campaign.

Besides talking about central government’s welfare schemes like Ujjawala, the NDA campaign is also highlighting key infrastructure uplift in the constituency like the opening of the bridge over Kosi near Balua Chowk, something that has provided much-needed connectivity. Better roads and electricity supply are other aspects that NDA campaigners are taking credit for. In recent times, the constituency has also been provided with a railway locomotive, while a medical college would soon be functional. These are developments with which Dinesh Chandra Yadav would expect to impress voters favourably beyond caste calculations.

As the three-way contest among three known Yadav leaders has, to an extent, neutralised the Yadav vote edge, the success in making inroads into other social groups and claims on prospects of development may tilt the electoral balance in Madhepura. That, however, doesn’t rule out the crucial role that the race for consolidating the larger chunk of Yadav electorate may still play in eventual outcome.

A quick look at other constituencies:

Khagaria

  • Total voters: 16, 53, 928
  • Male voters: 8, 73, 363
  • Female voters: 7, 80, 525
  • Assembly segments: Alauli, Khagaria Sadar, Parbatta, Beldaur, Hasanpur, Simri Bakhtiyarpur
  • 2014 Lok Sabha Polls: Chaudhary Mehmoob Ali Kaiser (LJP) defeated Krishna Yadav (RJD) by 76,003 votes
  • 2019 key contenders: Chaudhary Mehmoob Ali Kaiser (Lok Janshakti Party, LJP) of the NDA and Mukesh Sahni (Vikassheel Insaan Party, VIP) of GA.

Supaul

  • Total voters : 16, 85, 165
  • Male voters: 8, 78, 196
  • Female voters: 8, 06, 938
  • Assembly segments: Nirmali, Pipra, Supaul, Triveniganj, Chatapur, Singeshwar
  • 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Ranjit Ranjan (Congress) defeated Dileshwar Kamait (JD- U) by 55, 972 votes
  • 2019 key contenders: Ranjit Ranjan (Congress) and Dileshwar Kamait (JD- U)

Jhanjharpur

  • Total voters: 18,24,987
  • Male voters: 9, 56, 361
  • Female voters: 868552
  • Assembly segments : Khajauli, Babubarhi, Rajnagar, Jhanjharpur, Phulparas and Laukaha
  • 2014 Lok Sabha polls: Birendra Kumar Chaudhary (BJP) defeated Mangani Lal Mandal (RJD) by 55, 408 votes
  • 2019 key contenders: Gulab Yadav (RJD) and Ram Preet Mandal  (JD-U)

Araria

  • Total voters : 18,04,353
  • Male voters: 9,49,610
  • Female voters: 8,54, 680
  • Assembly segments: Narpatganj, Raniganj, Forbesganj, Araria, Jokihat and Sikti
  • 2014 Lok Sabha polls : Mohammed Taslimuddin  (RJD) defeated Pradeep  Singh (BJP) by 1.46 lakh votes. In the May 2018 by-poll, following the death of  Md Taslimuddin, his son Sarfaraz Alam won against Pradeep Singh (BJP) and RJD retained the seat.
  • 2019 key contenders: Sarfaraz Alam (RJD) and Pradeep Singh (BJP)
subscription-appeal-image

Power NL-TNM Election Fund

General elections are around the corner, and Newslaundry and The News Minute have ambitious plans together to focus on the issues that really matter to the voter. From political funding to battleground states, media coverage to 10 years of Modi, choose a project you would like to support and power our journalism.

Ground reportage is central to public interest journalism. Only readers like you can make it possible. Will you?

Support now

You may also like