This week, two big election rallies were addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi in Bihar’s Paliganj and Bikram respectively. The two assembly segments fall under the Patliputra Lok Sabha constituency.

The close contest in Patliputra is being watched keenly as one of the high-stake battles for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Misa Bharti, daughter of jailed RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, is pitted against the sitting Member of Parliament and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Ram Kripal Yadav. The latter had defeated Misa in 2014 by a modest margin of 40,322 votes. Even her father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, had lost to Ranjan Prasad Yadav (Janta Dal-United, (JD-U)) here in 2009 by a huge margin of 2,45,757 votes. That was the first election after the constituency was carved out of the erstwhile Patna Lok Sabha constituency following the 2008 delimitation. Patna Sahib was another seat that came into being the same year.

This time the RJD, a key part of the Grand Alliance (GA) in the state, has made it a prestige seat for the party—Misa is the only Lalu family member contesting the Lok Sabha polls this time. The vast demography of the seat is considered conducive for testing the RJD’s fabled Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote consolidation. Meanwhile, Ram Kripal would be eyeing a part of the Yadav vote, supplementing it with non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Dalit votes and the support of upper caste voters, particularly that of Bhumihars.

Patliputra constituency is composite in its spread as it covers the urban section (some parts of the state capital), suburban pockets and a large rural area. It consists of six assembly segments which are currently held by different important players in state politics: Maner, Paliganj and Masaurhi (RJD), Danapur (BJP), Phulwari (JD-U), and Bikram (Congress). Clearly, by bagging three Assembly seats in the constituency, the RJD had reaped dividends of the MY equation in 2015 Assembly polls. However, the LS polls are pushing the RJD for a different scale of MY vote consolidation to outwit Ram Kripal’s hold across different caste groups—though not stronghold among any.

Since 2014, few significant changes could be seen on the poll scene for both Misa and Ram Kripal—changes which could influence the outcome in a close contest.

First, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (CPI-ML), which had cornered 5 per cent of the vote share in 2014 and had hurt Misa’s prospects, is out of the fray this time. In fact, the party is supporting the RJD candidate in Patliputra—a quid pro quo for the RJD rewarding the Left outfit with support in Arrah.

Second, the Muslim vote, which had got divided between the RJD and JD-U in 2014, is now expected to be firmly back with the RJD as the Nitish Kumar-led party is now with the BJP-led National Democratic Party (NDA).

Third, the incarceration of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, following his conviction in fodder scam cases, is likely to help the RJD consolidate Yadav votes more firmly on the victimhood card, by primarily projecting it as a conspiracy against the politically ascendant caste group. A major part of Ram Kripal’s challenge, being a Yadav himself, would be to wean away even a section of Yadav votes from such emotional appeals. The scale of consolidation of Yadav votes, estimated to be around 5 lakh in a constituency with 18.8 lakh voters (9.1 lakh male, 9.9 lakh female), could be decisive and so could be the efforts to neutralise it by getting the support of other caste groups.

Fourth, as a consequence of realignment since 2014, JD(U)’s loyal Kurmi vote may help the BJP in its effort to gain the non-Yadav OBC support.

Among upper caste groups, Bhumihars constitute a significant voting group in some assembly segments of the constituency. Till 2004, when Ram Kripal Yadav (then in the RJD) defeated CP Thakur in erstwhile Patna seat, the seat was once considered a stronghold of Bhumihar leaders. However, demographic composition and other equations made it slip away from the influence of Bhumihars, the way Muzaffarpur (in the northern part of the state) slipped away from them with the electoral rise of Nishads.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls in Patliputra constituency, Bhumihars have made peace with their reduced political influence and have stuck to supporting the BJP or any of the NDA allies (like the JD-U in 2009 polls). That, however, hasn’t stopped Bhumihar voices from stoking discontent in the caste group against the BJP for the party’s perceived neglect of Bhumihars in ticket distribution. While campaigning for Misa, Mokama MLA Anant Singh is being positioned to wean Bhumihars away from the BJP.

Even the disgruntled BJP ticket hopefuls like Dr Ajay Kumar have been speaking against the anti-Bhumihar lobby in the BJP and asking voters to vote for fellow Bhumihar Rajesh Singh, who is contesting as an independent. The BJP is trying to placate signs of Bhumihar discontent by positioning Giriraj Singh, party’s Bhumihar face, for conducting public contact programmes in Bihta, Painal and Anandpur.

It’s not clear how significant would these be in influencing the Bhumihar vote. The BJP, by and large, seems confident of its support among the caste group. Similarly, its ally Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) hold over a part of Dalit votes, chiefly Dusads, may help it gain Dalit votes. For the RJD, the CPI-ML’s support could see it gaining the Left group’s votes in Naxal-affected parts of the constituency, though the extent of influence of such areas has dwindled significantly in recent years.

Beside the calculus of social groups, the BJP has also been banking on PM Modi’s appeal, particularly his popularity among youth for effective national security response. There is also talk of a “laabharthi (beneficiary)” segment—the section which has benefitted from Central government’s Ujjwala LPG connection scheme, toilet building and housing scheme. Nitish Kumar-led state government’s impressive infrastructure development work, vastly improved electricity supply and roads in Ram Kripal’s favour, though its conversion in votes isn’t sure.

Once considered quite close to the Lalu family, Ram Kripal joined the BJP after being denied ticket for Patliputra constituency in 2014 polls—an election in which he rode the Modi wave to tame one of the dynasts of Bihar’s most powerful Yadav family. He is now facing the combined might of the GA which has thrown its weight behind Misa in an election which is as much a test of the Lalu family’s political solidarity as it’s about finding the winning social permutation in Patliputra.