The voting for Lok Sabha elections 2019 concluded at 6 pm today. At 6.30 pm, TV news channels who had held their horses all day were finally allowed to unleash their exit polls—high-tech, expansive and model-driven mathematical exercises meant to predict the seat distribution and percentage share among political parties in the general elections.
After much speculation and debate among anchors and experts, here are the numbers that the exit polls produced.
The Times Now-VMR survey predicted a triple century for the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies with 306 seats. It gave 132 seats to the United Progressive Alliance and 104 to the rest. It declared its sample size to be 40,000.
It took Republic TV two exit polls to forecast a sweep for the National Democratic Alliance. Its Jan Ki Baat poll gave 305 to the NDA, 124 to the UPA, 26 to the Mahagathbandhan and 87 to other parties.
Their C Voter exit poll, on the other hand, mellowed the NDA numbers to 287, UPA jumped 4 points to 128, Mahagathbandhan to 40 and the others remained at 87.
TV9 Bharatvarsha had also teamed up with C Voter, which explains the same numbers being displayed on its channel as Republic’s: 287 for the NDA, 128 for the UPA and 127 for the rest.
News18 teamed up with IPSOS, a survey company that its anchors claimed got Brexit and the 2016 US presidential elections right. The exit poll projected 336 for the NDA, 82 for the UPA and 124 seats for other parties. The survey’s sample size was around 1,20,000.
NewsX-My Neta generated the most conservative figure for the NDA: 242. And the most liberal one for the UPA: 162. Other parties were allotted 136 seats.
NewsX-Neta claimed:”Over 47 lakh voters participated in the Neta exit poll while over 2.5 crore voters participated in its opinion poll across all the 542 constituencies. These results are a statistical derivation based on the two.”
News Nation put a 282-290 bracket figure for the NDA with a 38 per cent vote percentage, 118-126 for the UPA with 30 per cent and 130-138 for other parties with another 30 per cent.
News24 teamed up with Chanakya, the survey whose prediction came closest to the actual election results in 2014. The duo predicted 350 for the NDA this time, with a meagre 95 for the UPA and 97 for other parties.
The India TV-CNX exit poll gave a clean 300 seats to the NDA. The UPA would get 120 seats, SP-BSP 28 and others 94 according to its survey.
ABP News’s exit poll also handed a conservative share of seats to the NDA with 277. The UPA got 130 seats, and others were given 135.
India Today’s polling partner Axis MyIndia predicted the highest seats for the NDA: an impressive bracket of 339-365 seats. The Congress would be locked between 77-108 seats, SP-BSP and its regional combine with 10-16 seats and others with 69-95 seats. The sample size of Axis MyIndia’s survey was more than 7 lakh.
Meanwhile, Suresh Chavhanke, the chairman, managing director and editor-in-chief of the notorious Sudarshan News, declared that according to his channel’s exit poll, the NDA would secure 313 seats in this Lok Sabha elections and the UPA would have to be content with 121.
If the Exit Polls have got it right, it will indeed be phir ek baar Modi Sarkar.