Are the Naga peace talks headed for a violent breakdown?

Rebels with whom the peace process began are not willing to sign a deal that doesn’t give them their own flag and constitution.

WrittenBy:Samrat X
Date:
Article image
  • Share this article on whatsapp

The Naga peace talks are at a critical inflection point, and heading towards a possibly violent end.

subscription-appeal-image

Support Independent Media

The media must be free and fair, uninfluenced by corporate or state interests. That's why you, the public, need to pay to keep news free.

Contribute

The interlocutor for the talks, Nagaland Governor RN Ravi, has declared that a draft comprehensive settlement is ready for signing. However, the group with which the peace process began in 1997, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim’s Isak-Muivah faction, is not willing to sign any deal that stops short of giving them a flag and a constitution. And the government has made it clear those demands will not be met. Moreover, Ravi, who recently met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi, has said in a statement, “Respecting the Naga people’s wishes, the Government of India is determined to conclude the peace process without delay. Endless negotiation under the shadow of guns is not acceptable.”

NSCN (IM) chief Muivah, on his part, has made clear his position, which is that the Nagas were never under India and are unwilling to be completely under the Indian flag and constitution. Naga sovereignty, according to him, always belonged to the Nagas. They were never anything but free, and therefore are only asking for what is theirs. He has also rejected the October 31 deadline for the conclusion of talks, and the possibility of surrender. The implications are clear. Muivah, now 86, is probably preparing to end his life as a rebel.

In preparation for any situation that may arise at that point, the governor has held a meeting on the security scenario with senior military, intelligence and police officers, including the General Officer Commanding of the Army’s 3 Corps and the Inspector General (North) of Assam Rifles. All deputy commissioners and administrative officers have been directed to remain at their places of posting, and anyone not on previoulsy sanctioned medical or maternity leave has been recalled to station. NSCN (IM) chairman Q Tuccu has noted the deployment of thousands of armed forces personnel in the Naga areas and warned that the issue will remain “alive and kicking” if there is forced union.

After 22 years of peace talks, the NSCN (IM) is probably not in a shape to wage a sustained fight against the Indian forces. The strength of public support that the cause of Naga independence enjoyed has also eroded greatly since the birth of the NSCN following the failure of an earlier peace accord, the Shillong Accord, in 1980. Muivah’s stand on the issue, which is the basis of his demand for a separate Naga flag and constitution, has not met with support even from other Naga rebel groups.

A coalition of other Naga rebel factions, collectively called the Naga National Political Groups, is willing to accept the terms being offered by the Indian government. The convener of the working committee of this coalition, N Kitovi Zhimomi, told Nagaland Post in an interview that “there may be a problem between the Government of India and NSCN (IM) but it must not hamper the Nagas of Nagaland”.

The Naga tribes, of which there are at least 35, are spread across Nagaland, the hills of Manipur, parts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and neighboring areas of Myanmar. Muivah is from the Tangkhul tribe, which has its traditional lands in Manipur. The integration of all Naga inhabited areas was one of the key demands of the NSCN. However, early on in the peace process, in 2001, the Indian government, then led by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Home Minister L K Advani, realised the dangers of this when the extension of the ceasefire with the NSCN (IM) to Manipur provoked a violent backlash there. The state’s Assembly, political party offices, and houses of ministers and legislators were set on fire by rampaging mobs that saw the extension of the ceasefire as the first step towards the dismemberment of Manipur.

That effectively put paid to hopes of the integration of Naga-inhabited areas under a single administration if it involved redrawing of state boundaries. The effort since then was to find workarounds, even though the talks, stretching over decades, became something of an end in themselves. The terms being offered to the rebels now include the establishment of a pan-Naga cultural organisation, regional territorial councils with considerable autonomous powers in the Naga areas of Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, and MLA as well as MP seats to represent those areas in the state Assembly and the Parliament.

The Naga organisations from Nagaland state, including the federation of village chiefs and the Nagaland Joint Christian Forum, have reportedly backed the Naga National Political Groups in concluding the peace process on these terms. The appetite for fighting for integration of all Naga-inhabited areas under one administration has shrunk considerably over time. The 17 Naga tribes of Nagaland state have little incentive to make room in politics, administration and jobs for their brethren from Manipur and elsewhere.

However, concluding a pact with the Naga National Political Groups and rolling up the NSCN (IM) by using the Army will not bring a neat closure to the conflicts in Northeast India and its near-abroad. Much has changed in the area because of economic aspirations and growing connectivity, physical and digital. Changes in the political climates of Bangladesh and Myanmar, where the Northeast insurgents had their camps and safe houses, have also played an important role. Now, the entire region is again on the cusp of instability.

The National Register of Citizens and its twin, the Citizenship Amendment Bill, threaten to leave every community in the region anxious and unhappy. The issue also has ramifications in Bangladesh, which has been battling the rise of extremist Islamist politics. Myanmar’s relations with its own ethnic minorities has been troubled forever and this has not changed substantially in most cases. If the wider region starts to deteriorate, the Northeast will go the same way.

The NSCN (IM) cadre may melt away and emerge again in another form with another name. Dealing with them too harshly would win them sympathy. Giving them what they are asking for is not possible. The least violent option left for everyone would be to simply extend the deadline for the conclusion of talks, and let life go on. For many years now, the talks have been the face-saving mechanism that has enabled everyone to carry on with business as usual.  

subscription-appeal-image

Power NL-TNM Election Fund

General elections are around the corner, and Newslaundry and The News Minute have ambitious plans together to focus on the issues that really matter to the voter. From political funding to battleground states, media coverage to 10 years of Modi, choose a project you would like to support and power our journalism.

Ground reportage is central to public interest journalism. Only readers like you can make it possible. Will you?

Support now

You may also like