In the run-up to the Rajasthan assembly polls, there was one major question discussed ad nauseam in the state and the media. 

Could Ashok Gehlot’s welfarism – which included flagship health insurance scheme, higher pensions, subsidised gas cylinders, free smartphones and more – make up for its other shortcomings? 

Now, as we know, the answer is no. 

Rajasthan voted on November 25 for 199 assembly seats, the election to one being deferred after the death of a Congress candidate. The desert state kept to its 25-year-old tradition of voting out the party in power, with the opposition BJP winning 115 seats, a vote share of 41.69 percent. The Congress won just 68 seats with a vote share of 39.53 percent. 

Compared to 2018, when the Congress got 39.3 percent of the votes, the party has managed to keep its pie intact – though that’s possibly little consolation at this stage.

The BJP’s gains, therefore, were at the cost of smaller parties, including the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party. Here’s why, despite the BJP’s own issues with infighting, the saffron party managed to easily cross the halfway mark of 100.

Paper leaks

Of the total 5.25 crore voters in the state, 2.73 crore are in the age bracket of 19 to 39. At least 17 times, the Congress government had to cancel government examinations after question papers were leaked. Opposition parties had alleged that officials from the chief minister’s office and a minister’s aide were involved in the leaks.

In this video report, Newslaundry learned that youths in Jaipur, a coaching hub, were unhappy with the Congress government. “We come from a rural background,” one said. “Rent is high here. Once a paper is leaked, we have to stay here for 12 more months. Our financial situation is not good. All of us belong to the farming community.”

It wasn’t just paper leaks that worked against the Congress government. During Newslaundry’s conversations across the state, young men pointed out that three relatives of state Congress president Govind Singh Dotasara had been recruited to the Rajasthan Public Service Commission with identical marks. Dotasara, who’s now won his Lachhmangarh seat by about 19,000 votes, was education minister at the time.

For the BJP, the paper leak issue was a recurring theme in speeches by leaders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for instance, accused the Congress of “selling exam papers” which “destroyed the dreams of the youth”.

“I want to assure you that the one involved in the paper leak will be sent behind bars. This is the guarantee of Modi,” he said.

The Congress attempted to defend itself by saying it had introduced a stringent law over the issue, with a fine of up to Rs 10 crore and jail time of 10 years. But the damage was already done.

Crimes against women

Rajasthan has more than 2.52 crore female voters. To woo them, the BJP attacked the Congress over its track record on women’s safety and security.

According to National Crimes Records Bureau data for 2021, Rajasthan topped the list for being unsafe for women. It reported 6,337 rapes in 2021 — the highest among all states and UTs. Madhya Pradesh was a distant second with 2,947.

Women voters had echoed their concerns to Newslaundry. One of them compared Rajasthan with Delhi, which is often derided for its track record in protecting women. Another said, “But when we read about such cases [in Rajasthan] in the newspapers, we feel Rajasthan is no better.”

The Congress government attributed the rise in rape cases to the mandatory filing of FIRs. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems this may not have been enough to pacify female voters.

‘Appeasement’ and Hindutva

In October this year, Jaipur was on edge after a Muslim teenager was killed by a mob in a road rage incident. The Gehlot government was quick to announce compensation of Rs 50 lakh to the victim’s family and a contractual job.

The BJP was unimpressed. In an election speech, firebrand Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called this “discrimination” against Hindus, alleging that the government only gave Rs 2 lakh compensation when Hindus died but Muslims got Rs 25 lakh.

On the ground, Newslaundry found that some Hindu voters, mostly youths, also took exception to the Rs 50 lakh compensation given to the Muslim victim’s family. “Does this government give Rs 50 lakh to Hindus too who have died in a rivalry?” a young man from Pratapgarh asked.

Another sore point for Hindu voters was the Congress government permitting a “unity march” by the Popular Front of India in Kota last year. The PFI was banned by the central government a few months later. In the run-up to the polls, Modi repeatedly criticised Gehlot for allowing such a rally.

“Are you sleeping? The Congress government is a slave to appeasement,” he said once, describing the PFI as a “terrorist” organisation. “It is afraid of terrorists. They only take action against those who should be respected.”

Modi also kicked off his poll campaign by raking up the murder of an Udaipur tailor, Kanhaiya Lal, by two Muslim youths earlier this year. He accused the Congress of worrying about “vote bank” politics. Meanwhile, the tailor’s family told Newslaundry they didn’t want him to be “dragged into politics”.

While his murder may not have been a deciding factor while voting, the BJP used similar themes in its sprawling WhatsApp enterprise in Rajasthan.

Congress infighting, Gehlot’s one-upmanship

Ashok Gehlot made this election all about himself. His images on hoardings towered above all others, including those from the central leadership. Former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot was conspicuous by his absence in campaign material. 

The party, despite Gehlot insisting all was well, could not utilise Pilot’s charisma to woo young voters. Though Pilot was allowed to choose his loyalists during ticket distribution, the Congress’s candidate from Sawai Madhopur, Danish Abrar, was allegedly snubbed by Pilot when Abrar asked him to campaign in his constituency. Sawai Madhopur has a sizable number of Gurjar voters. Abrar finally lost to veteran BJP leader Kirodi Lal by over 22,000 votes.

The Congress also delayed its campaigns as compared to the BJP. Pilot was missing in action in Rajasthan until November 15, when voting ended in Madhya Pradesh, and Rahul Gandhi arrived just a week before campaigning ended on November 23. By that point, Modi, Adityanath, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president JP Nadda had all held several rallies in the state. 

Senior Congress leaders like assembly speaker CP Joshi and Dotasara also did not campaign outside their own turf, reportedly because they were unsure of their own victories. Joshi has now lost from Nathdwara.

Another factor that worked against the Congress was the distribution of tickets. Gehlot and the central Congress leadership did not see eye to eye when the chief minister wanted tickets for his loyalists. Usually, winnability is the top criterion for a party to decide candidates. But Gehlot shifted the goal posts. The chief minister gave tickets to some because they saved his government in 2020. Political analyst and journalist Avinash Kalla called it one-upmanship, where personal egos prevailed over party’s interests.

BJP wins on organisation 

Since the Modi era began, the BJP hasn’t taken anything for granted in elections. Months before the poll announcement, the Rajasthan BJP began working on seats that it had lost. The 200 seats were divided into three categories: A, B and C. As a party leader told Newslaundry, A referred to seats it was most likely to win; B to seats the BJP had lost consecutively once or twice; and C to seats the BJP hadn’t won in the last three terms. Nineteen seats fell in category C.

The party’s list of candidates reflected its intent to regain lost ground. The first list of 41 contained 39 seats lost to the Congress. It was announced 13 days before the Congress’s first list came out on October 21. The first list did cause heartburn among loyalists of former CM Vasundhara Raje, but the BJP swung into damage control by accommodating her aides in subsequent lists. Raje also held over 50 rallies during the campaign, indicating a thaw between her and the central leadership.

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