Whenever the outcome of an election is declared, there’s always the risk of reading too much between the lines, of overdoing the drill of identifying takeaways. But with the recent assembly polls in Haryana, it can safely be said that the face-off between the two national parties, especially following the general election, comes at a significant time.

In a wider historical frame, the third consecutive victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state marks the first time a party has been voted back to power three times successfully since Haryana was formed in 1966. The Congress, meanwhile, failed to harness the tailwind it expected as the BJP defied the weight of anti-incumbency, belying assessments from pollsters and media commentators. 

Parallely, the BJP’s top brass is unlikely to be disappointed with its tally of 29 seats in the assembly polls in the union territory of Jammu & Kashmir. Even though the party didn’t get the numbers to form government, it’s likely to view it through the national prism and of wider messaging.

In Haryana, what commentariat missed

In the run-up to the Haryana polls, political analysts and drive-in commentary suffered the usual temptations. They saw a national subtext to how local elements of Haryana politics played out in the polls. The mounting anti-incumbency and vocal strength of the state’s dominant caste group possibly made them lose sight of something more crucial to the outcome.

In hindsight, there was an undercurrent of counter-mobilisation of social groups on which the BJP built its response to perceptions of a largely Jat-led Congress consolidation. This meant the BJP did work carefully on its social engineering to quell the caste dynamics that a resurgent Congress had deployed in this close fight.  

In a contest where the difference between the two top rivals’ vote shares was less than one percent – the BJP got 39.9 percent, the Congress 39.09 – the constituency-specific strategies and organisational push could have been decisive. The BJP did seem to get its act together on this front to counter the discontent that comes with anti-incumbency. A case in point seems to be the move to disintegrate the opposition voter base by pitching in quite a few independent candidates. 

More significantly, on the organisational front, the party retained its discipline in presenting a united face and leadership. This was reinforced by workers silently galvanising a social bloc of non-Jat OBCs, Dalits and upper castes against the perception of the return of a Jat-led Congress government in Haryana. 

A section of the commentariat had dwelt on how the BJP’s top leadership and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh set aside their reported differences during this election, with the RSS cadre reinforcing the BJP’s campaign. In a close fight, as it turned out to be, the RSS workers’ dedicated work was probably very handy, if not decisive, in mobilising the BJP’s core voters. 

At the same time, these factors and the BJP’s counter-mobilisation work wouldn’t have succeeded if the Congress had an overarching appeal, or if anti-incumbency had been pervasive across different sections. The results show that wasn’t the case – something which escaped the attention of the poll commentariat.  

BJP’s larger messaging in J&K

In Jammu & Kashmir, the bigger story for the BJP’s national messaging isn’t its 29 seats. It’s the conduct of incident-free and peaceful polls, and the linking of the union territory’s political process with the national mainstream. That the BJP’s 29 seats were powered by its impressive performance in Hindu-majority Jammu region only expectedly positions it as the prime advocate of the cause for Jammu in the union territory. 

The Congress’s dismal show in Jammu, and its weak presence with only six seats in the National Conference-led alliance government, dents its standing in the region. As the NC takes the reins of the government while being restricted by wide executive powers still vested in the office of the Lieutenant Governor, the BJP’s tally makes it a key national party in the UT. 

During the polls, the idea of J&K’s restoration of statehood found favour with all parties, including the BJP. But the question has always been of when and not whether it would be here. The new government will press for it sooner rather than later while the central government will view it more through the lens of national imperatives, not local factors. 

In fact, the BJP has been more determined to see the politics of J&K in the light of what it conveys for its nationalist messaging in the rest of the country, rather than how it places the party in power play in J&K. 

After the abrogation of Article 370, the Congress will also have to grapple with the extent to which it can be on the same page as the National Conference regarding the restoration of J&K’s special status. The Congress leadership will have to weigh in on the nationalist sentiment that favoured the abrogation and its incongruity with one of the key elements of its ally’s campaign.

Meanwhile, even the National Conference’s thrust will be limited to the rhetoric of restoring J&K’s special status as its realisation is no longer Srinagar’s prerogative. The problem for the Congress is that it might not even afford such rhetoric. Unlike the NC, the Congress will have to place the question within the reality of national politics. 

So, just four months after the Lok Sabha polls, these results are more about the interplay of political dynamics in Haryana and in J&K and less about the imperatives at work in national politics. But coming close on the heels of the Lok Sabha verdict, these results will be parsed for clues with two other states holding assembly polls soon. 

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