Rahul Gandhi’s allegations about voter rolls predate, and never relied on, any data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. 

Whether or not his allegations stand scrutiny is a separate matter. But a mistake by Sanjay Kumar, a prominent psephologist associated with the thinktank, has now been seized by the BJP and parroted by sections of the media to claim Gandhi’s campaign was built on fake CSDS data.

Last week, Kumar had claimed that two assembly constituencies in Maharashtra – Ramtek and Deolali – had witnessed a significant drop in the number of voters between the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. He said two other seats, Hingna and Nashik, saw a surge. All four were won by the NDA. Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera shared this data to take a jibe at the EC amid the party’s campaign on “vote chori”. Two days later, Kumar deleted the post and apologised saying the data was “misread”.

Then it snowballed.

BJP IT cell head Amit Malviya accused Kumar of pushing Congress’s “fake narrative”. Maharashtra deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis went further, alleging Rahul Gandhi’s charges against the EC were based on CSDS data and Gandhi was a “serial liar”. TV anchors picked it up, portraying Kumar’s mistake as the backbone of Congress’s claims.

The Indian Council of Social Science Research has now said it will issue a show-cause notice to the CSDS – it gets funds from the government-run research body. Kumar has been booked under BNS sections 175, 353(1)(B), 212 and 340(1)(2) by the Nagpur police for allegedly spreading misinformation.

What the facts are

Gandhi has held two press conferences alleging manipulation in voters lists in Maharashtra and written articles in The Indian Express as well as regional newspapers. 

The first press conference was held on February 7, 2024 along with Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut and NCP’s Supriya Sule. In this, he alleged that more votes (39 lakh) were added in the span of six months between 2024 Lok Sabha elections and Maharashtra assembly elections than those (32 lakh) added in five years between 2019 to 2024.

Two weeks ago, he held a second press conference in which he repeated his allegations that the BJP with the help of the EC is manipulating voter rolls. To back his claims, he gave a one hour long presentation in which he shared an analysis of poll data of Mahadevpura assembly segment in Bengaluru. He also repeatedly mentioned that a 40-member team of the party spent six months investigating the data. 

In an op-ed in The Indian Express on June 7, he had listed five ways how the elections were “fixed” in Maharashtra, including alleged fake voters in inflated lists. In November 2024, right after the results of Maharashtra assembly elections came out, the party had first raised the issue of arbitrary addition and deletion of voters in a memorandum to the Election Commission. 

The spin on screens

Right-wing supporters used Kumar’s tweet to discredit the opposition campaign.

Prominent dailies reported on the issue, but without bothering to put in a sentence on whether Gandhi had actually used CSDS data to make any of his allegations.

For example, The Indian Express framed its headline around the BJP’s statement. “Lokniti CSDS data ‘error’: Congress used fake data for propaganda, survey agency its puppet: BJP”. 

Times of India carried two stories on how the BJP mocked Congress for using the data. It covered Malviya’s claim that the very institution whose data Rahul Gandhi leaned on to defame the voters of Maharashtra has now admitted that its figures were wrong – not just on Maharashtra but even on SIR. Though, Kumar has not mentioned SIR in his apology tweet. 

Deccan Chronicle ran the headline “Pollster apology has Rahul in fix”. The newspaper reported on BJP’s allegations that Gandhi and the think tank are part of the “dangerous game of narrative building” against India and working “against national interest” with a “guru mantra” by George Soros. 

But TV channels went a step further. 

Rajat Sharma, chairman and editor-in-chief of India TV, had a seven-minute segment on the issue on his show, saying questions around the data had left Gandhi “embarrassed”. 

Sharma started by saying, “Rahul Gandhi ko badi embarrassment jhelni pari… Maharashtra mai voter badhne ke liye chunaav aayog ko lagatar target kar rahe hain, usse data pe sawal uth gaye (Rahul Gandhi had to face a big embarrassment…he is continuously targeting the Election Commission on the surge in voters in Maharashtra, and now that data is under question).”

Similarly, Rahul Shivshankar of CNN-News18, said the Congress “almost immediately amplified the CSDS’ data and gunned all the election commissioners with Rahul Gandhi issuing a chilling threat”. Without any disclaimer that Gandhi relied only on EC data, not CSDS. 

He went on to attack the Congress, saying, “where does this leave Rahul Gandhi and Congress which brazenly targeted the Election Commission and went so far to brand genuine voters as fake. Shameful..This is not of course the first time the Congress has been left with no leg to stand on.”

Meanwhile, in a nine-minute segment on Republic World, Arnab Goswami, showing a copy of an oped by Kumar, said “the psephologist is not admitting that the figures being quoted by the Congress party are his own figures”.

“We have Rahul Gandhi, who uses what he sees as a slight change in demographic behaviour or electoral behaviour. What he sees. What’s his interpretation, through his lens. Then he takes small case studies and makes a very large point. Saying that the entire electoral system in the country is a fix.”

Newslaundry reached out to Kumar, but he refused to comment. 

Update at 8 pm on Aug 20: This report has been updated with details about an FIR against Kumar in Nagpur.

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