In September of last year, the world media turned to a familiar theatre of Donald Trump’s campaign stage. The then Republican presidential nominee said at a Michigan campaign event that Narendra Modi, “a fantastic man”, was coming to see him next week. The bromance between Trump and Modi had, by then, passed into political folklore. 

From Howdy Modi in Houston to Namaste Trump in Ahmedabad, it had all been diplomacy as a duet – accompanied with fanfare, flags and corny slogans. Modi even lent the chant “Ab ki baar, Trump sarkaar” to Trump’s 2019 presidential campaign, a rare endorsement that fused Indian soft power with personal chemistry. So, when the campaign for the 2024 elections started in the US, everyone in both countries, or at least the media, anticipated a sequel to the same bonhomie. 

Yet, when the visit was due, despite Trump’s grand announcement of the meeting, Prime Minister Modi’s schedule was declared “too busy” to accommodate the meeting. Behind the flip-flop of logistics and counterclaims lay more than what one would call a mere conflict of schedule. Modi’s advisors, it was reported, having once misread the 2019 election mood in the US, were allegedly cautious of open endorsements this time around. They recalibrated to a more bipartisan position, deciding that cheerleading for one side in American politics can be bad optics. It was rumoured that after Kamala Harris declined a proposed meeting, Indian officials decided to withdraw from Trump’s orbit as well, avoiding meeting either of them. Modi’s calendar, instead, was filled with Quad sessions and a UN summit. 

That moment, as one foreign policy observer put it, marked “the beginning of the slide.” Some argue the relationship remained steady immediately after Trump 2.0; others point to the deportation drives or the breakdown in trade talks. Several insist the real rupture came with the India-Pakistan standoff in May.

More than the timeline, its trajectory matters. Nearly a year into Trump’s second term, analysts now question how India’s foreign policy got this so wrong.