As election momentum builds in Assam, the political atmosphere is thick with competing slogans, but thin on a single, dominant narrative. 

The political priorities of the Brahmaputra Valley – spanning both Upper and Lower Assam – differ significantly from those in the Barak Valley, the autonomous Sixth Schedule hill districts, and Bodoland, which also falls under the Sixth Schedule. With less than a week left before polling, the crucial question is whether a dominant narrative has finally taken hold across these fragmented regions, or if the electoral battle remains wide open.

To answer this, Santanu Borthakur, a well-known Gauhati High Court lawyer and political commentator, believes the opposition can emerge strong even as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, maintains a visible edge. 

Speaking to Newslaundry, he remarked, “Widespread defections across parties, growing anti-incumbency against the BJP, and shifting political narratives will determine the poll results. For the Opposition, issues such as mounting microfinance debt among rural households, granting Scheduled Caste (SC) status to six communities, strengthening safeguards under the Sixth Schedule, and implementation of Clause 6 of the Assam Accord should be of primary concern. Only then can they harness the benefits of opposition unity.”

BJP’s strength and the opposition’s challenges

For the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma, a massive organisational machine and a vast base of welfare beneficiaries remain its most formidable strategic advantages. 

The government has bolstered its welfare narrative through the Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyaan (MMUA), a flagship entrepreneurship scheme aimed at assisting 40 lakh women. In January 2026, Chief Minister Sarma claimed that over 15 lakh self-help group members had already received an initial seed capital of Rs 10,000. If voted back to power, Sarma claimed that beneficiaries would be eligible for a subsequent Rs 25,000 – split equally between a government grant and a subsidised bank loan. 

In the second week of March – just days before the poll dates were announced – the state government further consolidated its welfare narrative by transferring Rs 9,000 each to 40 lakh women under Orunodoi, a flagship financial empowerment program. 

These economic incentives, alongside a promise of 2 lakh new government jobs, form the core of the BJP’s election manifesto. However, the party’s platform is not purely economic; it leans heavily on a hardline communal agenda, promising strict measures against illegal infiltration and what it calls ‘love jihad’ and ‘land jihad’.

Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, meanwhile, has sought to flip this narrative, arguing that welfare access must be a citizen's right rather than a reward for political loyalty. He is tapping into widespread allegations that BJP cadres intimidate beneficiaries, reportedly threatening to strike them from government lists if they attend opposition rallies.

Despite its organisational strength, the BJP also faces internal rifts. The most prominent flashpoint is the Dispur seat, where a triangular contest has emerged. Former State BJP VP Jayanta Das is contesting as an independent against official BJP candidate Pradyut Bordoloi – a long-time Congress stalwart who crossed over to the BJP only last month. This revolt could inadvertently help Congress candidate Mira Borthakur. Similar undercurrents of dissatisfaction over candidate selection are visible in seats like Kamalpur and Sipajhar.

For the united opposition that includes the Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC), and the Left parties, the primary ‘loophole’ remains the late sealing of their alliance and perceptions of leadership friction. 

Critics, including former Congress insiders, have identified Gaurav Gogoi’s leadership style as a major source of friction. Prafulla Kumar Das, a former Congress social media chairman who recently joined the BJP, alleged that Gogoi is prioritising his long-term 2031 chief ministerial ambitions over the immediate 2026 battle.

“His main aim is 2031,” Das remarked to Newslaundry. “That is why he is sidelining senior leaders like Pradyut Bordoloi (who left the party last month to join the BJP), Bhupen Borah, and Debabrat Saikia, who could be his contenders.” While Das predicts a greater BJP majority, the opposition maintains that its newfound unity will yield electoral gains – a claim now being tested by Sarma’s tried-and-tested script.

Resorting to BJP’s signature narrative

In 2016, when the BJP formed its first government in Assam under Sarbananda Sonowal’s leadership, the slogan of protecting ‘Jati, Mati & Bheti’ (community, land, and base) strongly resonated with voters. That was also the year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared in Assam that ‘illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators’ would not be spared.

It’s a motif Sarma carried into the 2021 elections, when he described the contest as the ‘last Battle of Saraighat’, invoking the 17th-century Ahom resistance against the Mughals. This year, Sarma again made it clear that the protection of the “indigenous people of the state” and their identity remains the central agenda for the BJP. 

On March 26, at a massive rally in Barpeta, he declared that, for the party, this election is a battle to protect ‘Mati, Beti, and Roti’ (land, daughters, and livelihood).

At a campaign rally in Lakhimpur’s Dhakuakhana last week, Sarma took this rhetoric further, specifically targeting Muslims of Bengali origin. According to PTI, he stated that while the BJP already “broke their hands and legs politically”, his goal for the next term is even more severe: “This time, we will break the very backbone of the Bangladeshi Miyas.” 

‘Miya’ is a term used for Muslims of East Bengal origin in Assam. However, not all voters appear equally convinced. Suresh Deka* (name changed), a young government school teacher from Kamrup district and a voter in the Kamalpur constituency, believes that the ‘Miya’ narrative does not carry the same weight as in previous elections. 

“The repetition of the same narrative makes people lose interest,” he says. “It also raises the question of why the problem has not been resolved, even though the BJP has been in power both at the Centre and in the state for over a decade.”

Opposition’s counter-narrative

The united opposition, under the banner of Asom Sonmilito Morcha, may share a common theme, but their strategies and perspectives differ.

The Congress was among the first to launch its election campaign this time. In February, the party organised rallies across the state focusing on allegations of corruption involving the chief minister’s family, claiming that they own over 12,000 bighas of land. With the slogan ‘Notun Bor Axom’ (a new, greater Assam), the Congress has promised a state based on harmony, equality, and prosperity.

On the day Leader of the Opposition Debabrat Saikia filed his nomination for the Nazira seat, Gaurav Gogoi stated that the united opposition is contesting this election to safeguard the indigenous Assamese people, irrespective of religion.

But Chief Minister Sarma strongly criticised the ‘New, Greater Assam' narrative of the Congress, saying it would end up safeguarding ‘infiltrators’. 

“We need the old greater Assam of Sukapha and Srimanta Sankardev, not the one that Gaurav Gogoi says, which only means to protect the infiltrators. This will harm the indigenous Assamese people,” he remarked.

Earlier this week, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge declared five guarantees if Congress is chosen to power – unconditional monthly cash aid to women, cash assistance for starting a business, cashless health insurance, land patta (permanent land holdings) for 10 lakh indigenous landless people, and the delivery of justice for the late artist Zubeen Garg within 100 days – a promise that may no longer hold much water since the Singapore Police ruled his death an accidental drowning on April 1. While Zubeen’s wife, Garima Garg, has urged against politicising the tragedy, Sarma has noted that seven people were arrested by his government and the matter is sub judice in a fast-track court.

Raijor Dal’s manifesto, meanwhile, emphasises indigenous-led growth, economic self-reliance, and democratic freedoms. Sivasagar MLA Akhil Gogoi, the party's president, describes the contest as a fight to empower indigenous communities through inclusive development. For the AJP, which emerged from the anti-CAA unrest, the primary goal remains repealing the Act and implementing the Assam Accord in full.

Do these narratives hold in Barak Valley and the Hills?

What works in the Brahmaputra Valley does not necessarily resonate in the Barak Valley or the Sixth Schedule areas that are home to diverse indigenous tribal communities. 

During a recent visit to the Barak Valley, Sarma remarked that there is no 'Miya' presence in the region. A journalist based in Silchar, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that such narratives are less compelling in Barak. 

“For the Congress, issues like NRC exclusions, unemployment, and delimitation are more prominent,” he said. “They are specifically highlighting how the valley lost two assembly seats in the 2023 delimitation exercise. In contrast, the BJP is focusing their narrative on visible infrastructure growth and the success of its welfare programs.”

To better understand how things are looking in the Karbi Hills, Newslaundry spoke to Holiram Terang, an eminent leader of the Karbi Autonomous State Movement and a former minister in the Assam government. Terang observed that the election there is shaped more by indigenous versus non-indigenous concerns than by communal narratives. 

He claims that the Sixth Schedule area is seeing a steady influx of non-indigenous settlers, particularly on protected lands, which has created a crisis of both land and identity. “While the opposition has failed to fully capitalise on this anti-incumbency, the fear among the tribal community remains persistent and visceral.”

“The BJP’s narrative is infrastructure development and welfare schemes. The Congress has no narrative at all in the hills. The APHLC has tried to champion the indigenous narrative. But they are confined to a few seats,” Terang added. 

This suggests the BJP will maintain an edge, though in constituencies like Amri and Diphu, the APHLC's local strength makes the contest significantly more competitive.

While the Karbi Hills grapple with indigenous identity, the neighbouring Dima Hasao district faces a more personality-driven fracture. There, cabinet minister Nandita Gorlosa resigned from the BJP after being denied a ticket, defecting to become the Congress candidate overnight. She will now contest the elections against Rupali Langthasa of the BJP and Daniel Langthasa of the NPP (National People’s Party). While Daniel is a popular youth face in Dima Hasao, Rupali is a newcomer in electoral politics who is close to Debolal Gorlosa, the chief of the Dima Hasao Autonomous Council. 

Explaining the shifting narratives, Uttam Bathari, a history professor at Gauhati University, observes: “The sentiment here is more ‘anti-Debolal’ than ‘anti-BJP.’ However, the recent Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) signed with the Kuki and Hmar groups, which proposes separate development councils for them, has deeply offended the Dimasa community, fueling dissatisfaction with the BJP. There is also a growing sense that the constitutional protections of the Sixth Schedule are being eroded, specifically through the transfer of tribal land to large corporations like the Adani Group for mining and other projects.”

Compounding this administrative friction, Debolal Gorlosa faces intense cultural backlash over an alleged violation of Dimasa heritage. He is accused of unilaterally altering the traditional list of matriclans held by the Sendi-Khunang – a hereditary office dating back to the 15th-century Dimasa Kingdom. 

According to Bathari, Gorlosa allegedly manipulated this sacred record by removing the Rajama (the ‘Mother of the King’ clan) from its traditional primacy to install his own mother’s matriclan in its place. This has offended the community, which views these ancestral lineages as sacred pillars that must remain beyond political interference.

While major parties seek to project overarching state-wide narratives for 2026, the focus on the ground remains local, particularly shaped by specific struggles over land, economic anxieties, identity and heritage.

As of today, no dominant narrative has emerged to decisively shape the electoral contest in Assam, with fragmented narratives playing out across different regions. In its absence, the battle remains open, albeit with a visible edge for the BJP, and the outcome is likely to hinge on how the final days of campaigning unfold. 

Sandipan Talukdar is a Guwahati-based independent journalist.